seasons

2023-24, 2024-25 (d'où vient ce nombre)

shots

227076 (d'où vient ce nombre)

features

34 (d'où vient ce nombre)

testedOn

2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

logLoss

0.229 (d'où vient ce nombre)

baselineLogLoss

0.259 (d'où vient ce nombre)

auc

0.756 (d'où vient ce nombre)

clockRepair

Repaired 2026-09-29 (hub card 149362): from 2023-24 the league stamps a goal about a second later than other shots, so the rebound (3 s) and rush (4 s) windows (d'où vient ce nombre)

logLossBeforeRepair

0.228 (d'où vient ce nombre)

aucBeforeRepair

0.757 (d'où vient ce nombre)

logLossAfterRepair

0.228 (d'où vient ce nombre)

aucAfterRepair

0.756 (d'où vient ce nombre)

deciles

(expected: 69.1, actual: 75); (expected: 143.4, actual: 126); (expected: 243.5, actual: 236); (expected: 373.4, actual: 332); (expected: 535.7, actual: 485); (expected: 718.8, actual: 724); (expected: 936.3, actual: 942); (expected: 1204.5, actual: 1206); (expected: 1576.7, actual: 1604); (expected: 2734.9, actual: 2356) (d'où vient ce nombre)

seasonShift

-0.064 (d'où vient ce nombre)

available

true (d'où vient ce nombre)

shots

108568 (d'où vient ce nombre)

games

1271 (d'où vient ce nombre)

totalXg

8273.9 (d'où vient ce nombre)

totalGoals

7823 (d'où vient ce nombre)

ratioGoalsOverXg

0.946 (d'où vient ce nombre)

ece

0.005 (d'où vient ce nombre)

logLossPerShot

0.228 (d'où vient ce nombre)

brierPerShot

0.062 (d'où vient ce nombre)

deciles

(decile: 1, xgLo: 0, xgHi: 0.009, shots: 10736, expectedGoals: 64.2, actualGoals: 71, meanXg: 0.006, goalRate: 0.007, ratioActualOverExpected: 1.106, z: 0.85); (decile: 2, xgLo: 0.009, xgHi: 0.017, shots: 10883, expectedGoals: 137, actualGoals: 122, meanXg: 0.013, goalRate: 0.011, ratioActualOverExpected: 0.891, z: -1.29); (decile: 3, xgLo: 0.017, xgHi: 0.027, shots: 10905, expectedGoals: 236.5, actualGoals: 227, meanXg: 0.022, goalRate: 0.021, ratioActualOverExpected: 0.96, z: -0.62); (decile: 4, xgLo: 0.027, xgHi: 0.04, shots: 10884, expectedGoals: 362.8, actualGoals: 315, meanXg: 0.033, goalRate: 0.029, ratioActualOverExpected: 0.868, z: -2.55); (decile: 5, xgLo: 0.04, xgHi: 0.055, shots: 10836, expectedGoals: 517.5, actualGoals: 484, meanXg: 0.048, goalRate: 0.045, ratioActualOverExpected: 0.935, z: -1.51); (decile: 6, xgLo: 0.056, xgHi: 0.073, shots: 10861, expectedGoals: 695.2, actualGoals: 709, meanXg: 0.064, goalRate: 0.065, ratioActualOverExpected: 1.02, z: 0.54); (decile: 7, xgLo: 0.073, xgHi: 0.094, shots: 10888, expectedGoals: 907.7, actualGoals: 876, meanXg: 0.083, goalRate: 0.081, ratioActualOverExpected: 0.965, z: -1.1); (decile: 8, xgLo: 0.095, xgHi: 0.121, shots: 10856, expectedGoals: 1163.6, actualGoals: 1158, meanXg: 0.107, goalRate: 0.107, ratioActualOverExpected: 0.995, z: -0.17); (decile: 9, xgLo: 0.121, xgHi: 0.164, shots: 10845, expectedGoals: 1523.7, actualGoals: 1547, meanXg: 0.141, goalRate: 0.143, ratioActualOverExpected: 1.015, z: 0.64); (decile: 10, xgLo: 0.164, xgHi: 0.908, shots: 10874, expectedGoals: 2665.6, actualGoals: 2314, meanXg: 0.245, goalRate: 0.213, ratioActualOverExpected: 0.868, z: -8.19) (d'où vient ce nombre)

crossFitIsotonic

split: games permuted with seed 11, halves of 635/636 games, logLossBefore: 0.228, logLossAfter: 0.228, brierBefore: 0.062, brierAfter: 0.062, eceAfter: 0.001, diffAfterMinusBefore: (mean: 0, range: 0, 0, excludesZero: no, B: 5000, clusters: games), mapHalfAAtGrid: (0.01: 0.007, 0.02: 0.012, 0.05: 0.046, 0.1: 0.101, 0.15: 0.154, 0.2: 0.172, 0.3: 0.213, 0.4: 0.369, 0.5: 0.369), mapHalfBAtGrid: (0.01: 0.01, 0.02: 0.021, 0.05: 0.042, 0.1: 0.109, 0.15: 0.154, 0.2: 0.173, 0.3: 0.218, 0.4: 0.348, 0.5: 0.514), plattSecondary: (note: cross-fitted logit(q) = a + b*logit(xg), same game halves; secondary, not the registered isotonic test, halfA: (a: -0.21, b: 0.933), halfB: (a: -0.189, b: 0.942), logLossAfter: 0.228, diffAfterMinusBefore: (mean: 0, range: 2 items, excludesZero: yes, B: 5000, clusters: games)) (d'où vient ce nombre)

Entraîné sur 2023-24 et 2024-25, jugé sur 2025-26. Perte logarithmique du champion 0,22830 sur 1,312 matchs (0,22861 sur les 1,232 avec un fichier d'événements). (d'où vient ce nombre)Règle : adopt only if the bootstrap 95% range of (challenger - champion) log loss lies below zero; otherwise reject; adoption itself is a hub decision card, never automatic.

Le pupitre : no candidate passes the registered rule, is attributable and shows no placebo gain, so the desk puts none forward. B passes the rule but its flags are built on the raw clock. The clock finding goes to whoever owns tools/pull-pbp.mjs. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Étude complète sur /integrity.

• Goals are stamped about one second later than other shots in 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26; the model's rebound and rush inputs are short windows on that clock. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• With goal times corrected the champion scores 0.22883 against 0.22861 on the same 105,288 shots (+0.000225 per shot, 95% range +0.000107 to +0.000351): part of its published accuracy comes from the clock. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• 70% of shots flagged as rush in 2025-26 follow the club's own blocked attempt and are not rushes. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Le constat sur l'horloge au complet.

• 8 of 32 buildings recorded shot distance differently from the same clubs' road shots in 2025-26 (25% at p below 0.01, against 3.5% by chance). (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Season to season the effects correlate at r 0.519 (registered threshold 0.5); the spread between buildings is 1.00 ft against a noise floor of about 0.56 ft. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• A distance correction repaired 22 arena-seasons on unseen games and broke 20 (exact p 0.88), so the model carries no rink adjustment. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Chaque aréna sur /integrity.

• Top decile of chances over-predicted by about 15% and the bottom decile under-predicted (decile table); an isotonic recalibration is on the register. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• No rink (scorer) adjustment of shot locations: the correction tried did not help on unseen games (see Arena scorer effects); goalies who play half their games in one building inherit its recording habits. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Repaired 2026-09-29 (hub card 149362): from 2023-24 the league stamps a goal about a second later than other shots, so the rebound (3 s) and rush (4 s) windows missed goals and the model learned to mark those chances down. Goal times are now moved back 1 s before the windows are applied (2022-23 and earlier unchanged): 592 rebound and 258 rush flags gained, all of them goals. Published accuracy fell, log loss 0.2283 to 0.2285 and AUC 0.757 to 0.756 on 112,091 2025-26 shots, because a leak of the outcome into the inputs was removed, not because the model got worse at hockey. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Clock repair not complete in the test season: 80 of 1,312 2025-26 games (6,803 shots, 485 goals) have no events file on disk, so their flags stay on the raw clock; test season only, training rows fully corrected. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• One model with power-play and shorthanded flags rather than four strength-state models. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Goalie quality leaks into the label: a shot on a weak goalie is a goal more often, so xG absorbs some goaltending. (d'où vient ce nombre)

trainedOn

2018-19 to 2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

games

9187 (d'où vient ce nombre)

features

b2b, eG, eX, form, h2h, lEvA, lEvF, lFin, lPK, lPP, lSv, luMiss … +4 more (d'où vient ce nombre)

tournament

folds: 2019, 2020; 2020, 2021; 2021, 2022; 2022, 2023; 2023, 2024; 2024, 2025, leader: (name: logistic: everything minus trap/schedule spot, avgLogLoss: 0.657, avgAccuracy: 0.604); (name: logistic: everything, travel = time zones + 3-in-4 only, avgLogLoss: 0.657, avgAccuracy: 0.604); (name: logistic: everything minus travel (ridge 50), avgLogLoss: 0.657, avgAccuracy: 0.604); (name: logistic: everything minus goalie rotation, avgLogLoss: 0.657, avgAccuracy: 0.606); (name: logistic: everything (ridge 50), avgLogLoss: 0.657, avgAccuracy: 0.604); (name: logistic: + lineups/goalie, avgLogLoss: 0.658, avgAccuracy: 0.605) (d'où vient ce nombre)

tiers

(tier: coin flip, games: 1760, share: 0.251, predicted: 0.525, right: 0.517, rightTight: 0.487, rightLoose: 0.547); (tier: lean, games: 1588, share: 0.227, predicted: 0.574, right: 0.567, rightTight: 0.547, rightLoose: 0.587); (tier: solid, games: 1331, share: 0.19, predicted: 0.624, right: 0.606, rightTight: 0.586, rightLoose: 0.626); (tier: strong, games: 991, share: 0.141, predicted: 0.674, right: 0.679, rightTight: 0.653, rightLoose: 0.705); (tier: heavy, games: 1336, share: 0.191, predicted: 0.756, right: 0.748, rightTight: 0.749, rightLoose: 0.747) (d'où vient ce nombre)

blockSearch

versions: 49152, championProof: 0.664, bestFinalist: (families: special teams, finishing+goalie, lineup, rivalry+race, l2: 50, selection: 0.648, proof: 0.664, vsChampion: -0.001, 0, better: no) (d'où vient ce nombre)

search

versions: 3000, luckGap: 0.027, newChampion: — (d'où vient ce nombre)

gameModelV2

validation: (games: 1235, logLoss: 0.659, brier: 0.233, accuracy: 0.604), settings: (kG: 8, kX: 22, carry: 0.85, a: 0.1), testedOn: 2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

perSeason

2020: (n: 803, logLoss: 0.648, brier: 0.228, baseRate: 0.538, meanPredicted: 0.535, reliabilityWidth: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.035, mode: width), reliabilityFreq: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.039, mode: freq), eceWidth: 0.035, eceFreq: 0.039, decomposition: (bins: 10, brier: 5 fields, logLoss: 5 fields)), 2021: (n: 1210, logLoss: 0.626, brier: 0.218, baseRate: 0.539, meanPredicted: 0.539, reliabilityWidth: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.024, mode: width), reliabilityFreq: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.038, mode: freq), eceWidth: 0.024, eceFreq: 0.038, decomposition: (bins: 10, brier: 5 fields, logLoss: 5 fields)), 2022: (n: 1217, logLoss: 0.646, brier: 0.227, baseRate: 0.532, meanPredicted: 0.541, reliabilityWidth: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.031, mode: width), reliabilityFreq: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.028, mode: freq), eceWidth: 0.031, eceFreq: 0.028, decomposition: (bins: 10, brier: 5 fields, logLoss: 5 fields)), 2023: (n: 1230, logLoss: 0.654, brier: 0.231, baseRate: 0.538, meanPredicted: 0.535, reliabilityWidth: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.03, mode: width), reliabilityFreq: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.025, mode: freq), eceWidth: 0.03, eceFreq: 0.025, decomposition: (bins: 10, brier: 5 fields, logLoss: 5 fields)), 2024: (n: 1235, logLoss: 0.653, brier: 0.231, baseRate: 0.564, meanPredicted: 0.54, reliabilityWidth: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.039, mode: width), reliabilityFreq: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.035, mode: freq), eceWidth: 0.039, eceFreq: 0.035, decomposition: (bins: 10, brier: 5 fields, logLoss: 5 fields)), 2025: (n: 1311, logLoss: 0.681, brier: 0.244, baseRate: 0.522, meanPredicted: 0.541, reliabilityWidth: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.049, mode: width), reliabilityFreq: (bins: 10 items, ece: 0.051, mode: freq), eceWidth: 0.049, eceFreq: 0.051, decomposition: (bins: 10, brier: 5 fields, logLoss: 5 fields)) (d'où vient ce nombre)

pooled

n: 7006, logLoss: 0.652, brier: 0.23, baseRate: 0.539, meanPredicted: 0.539, reliabilityWidth: (bins: (6 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields), ece: 0.009, mode: width), reliabilityFreq: (bins: (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields), ece: 0.014, mode: freq), eceWidth: 0.009, eceFreq: 0.014, decomposition: (bins: 10, brier: (score: 0.23, reliability: 0, resolution: 0.018, uncertainty: 0.248, residualWithinBin: -0.001), logLoss: (score: 0.652, reliability: 0, resolution: 0.037, uncertainty: 0.69, residualWithinBin: -0.002)) (d'où vient ce nombre)

generatedAt

2026-09-29T02:58:55Z (d'où vient ce nombre)

source

data/models/features.csv (d'où vient ce nombre)

games

9781 (d'où vient ce nombre)

gamesWithOutcome

9698 (d'où vient ce nombre)

rowsWithoutHomeWin

83 (d'où vient ce nombre)

featureColumns

98 (d'où vient ce nombre)

method

adversarial: LightGBM binary (300 rounds, lr 0.05, 31 leaves, min 50 per leaf, feature/bagging fraction 0.8), 5-fold out-of-fold predictions, rank AUC; gain share averaged over folds, univariate: rank AUC of each column against homeWin, reported as max(AUC, 1-AUC); flag above 0.75, canary: leaked columns appended and re-tested by the same rules; multivariate detector = LightGBM 5-fold homeWin AUC and gain rank, seed: 11 (d'où vient ce nombre)

adversarial

target: 2025 vs 2018-2024, result: (season: 2025, nCurrent: 1312, nPrior: 8469, auc: 1, topGain: (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields); (2 fields) … +3 more, ablations: (3 fields); (3 fields); (3 fields)), contextBySeason: (season: 2020, nCurrent: 868, nPrior: 2353, auc: 0.993, topGain: 15 items); (season: 2021, nCurrent: 1312, nPrior: 3221, auc: 0.993, topGain: 15 items); (season: 2022, nCurrent: 1312, nPrior: 4533, auc: 0.998, topGain: 15 items); (season: 2023, nCurrent: 1312, nPrior: 5845, auc: 0.997, topGain: 15 items); (season: 2024, nCurrent: 1312, nPrior: 7157, auc: 0.999, topGain: 15 items), reading: AUC near 0.5 means the 2025 rows are indistinguishable from earlier seasons; a high AUC driven by a few features (and collapsing after their removal) indicates those inputs shifted level between seasons (league scoring rate, lineup availability), not a leak of outcomes. (d'où vient ce nombre)

univariate

flagThreshold: 0.75, flagged: none, raw: (feature: h_lEvF, auc: 0.546, directionalAuc: 0.546, flag: no); (feature: h_lEvA, auc: 0.545, directionalAuc: 0.545, flag: no); (feature: h_lPP, auc: 0.547, directionalAuc: 0.547, flag: no); (feature: h_lPK, auc: 0.522, directionalAuc: 0.522, flag: no); (feature: h_lFin, auc: 0.52, directionalAuc: 0.52, flag: no); (feature: h_lSv, auc: 0.538, directionalAuc: 0.538, flag: no); (feature: h_home, auc: 0.5, directionalAuc: 0.5, flag: no); (feature: h_b2b, auc: 0.49, directionalAuc: 0.51, flag: no); (feature: h_oppB2b, auc: 0.518, directionalAuc: 0.518, flag: no); (feature: h_travelK, auc: 0.501, directionalAuc: 0.501, flag: no); (feature: h_tzCross, auc: 0.502, directionalAuc: 0.502, flag: no); (feature: h_threeIn4, auc: 0.493, directionalAuc: 0.507, flag: no) … +86 more, differences: (feature: diff_altitude, auc: 0.507, directionalAuc: 0.507, flag: no); (feature: diff_b2b, auc: 0.474, directionalAuc: 0.526, flag: no); (feature: diff_eG, auc: 0.616, directionalAuc: 0.616, flag: no); (feature: diff_eX, auc: 0.616, directionalAuc: 0.616, flag: no); (feature: diff_eliminated, auc: 0.471, directionalAuc: 0.529, flag: no); (feature: diff_foShare, auc: 0.539, directionalAuc: 0.539, flag: no); (feature: diff_form, auc: 0.576, directionalAuc: 0.576, flag: no); (feature: diff_h2h, auc: 0.559, directionalAuc: 0.559, flag: no); (feature: diff_hits, auc: 0.498, directionalAuc: 0.502, flag: no); (feature: diff_home, auc: 0.5, directionalAuc: 0.5, flag: no); (feature: diff_lEvA, auc: 0.59, directionalAuc: 0.59, flag: no); (feature: diff_lEvF, auc: 0.589, directionalAuc: 0.589, flag: no) … +37 more, strongestRaw: (feature: h_luSk, auc: 0.618, directionalAuc: 0.618, flag: no); (feature: a_luSk, auc: 0.382, directionalAuc: 0.618, flag: no); (feature: h_eG, auc: 0.616, directionalAuc: 0.616, flag: no); (feature: a_eG, auc: 0.384, directionalAuc: 0.616, flag: no); (feature: h_eX, auc: 0.616, directionalAuc: 0.616, flag: no); (feature: a_eX, auc: 0.385, directionalAuc: 0.616, flag: no); (feature: h_form, auc: 0.576, directionalAuc: 0.576, flag: no); (feature: a_form, auc: 0.424, directionalAuc: 0.576, flag: no); (feature: h_h2h, auc: 0.559, directionalAuc: 0.559, flag: no); (feature: a_h2h, auc: 0.441, directionalAuc: 0.559, flag: no), strongestDiff: (feature: diff_luSk, auc: 0.618, directionalAuc: 0.618, flag: no); (feature: diff_eG, auc: 0.616, directionalAuc: 0.616, flag: no); (feature: diff_eX, auc: 0.616, directionalAuc: 0.616, flag: no); (feature: diff_lEvA, auc: 0.59, directionalAuc: 0.59, flag: no); (feature: diff_lEvF, auc: 0.589, directionalAuc: 0.589, flag: no); (feature: diff_lPP, auc: 0.578, directionalAuc: 0.578, flag: no); (feature: diff_form, auc: 0.576, directionalAuc: 0.576, flag: no); (feature: diff_h2h, auc: 0.559, directionalAuc: 0.559, flag: no); (feature: diff_trap, auc: 0.556, directionalAuc: 0.556, flag: no); (feature: diff_lSv, auc: 0.551, directionalAuc: 0.551, flag: no) (d'où vient ce nombre)

multivariateBaseline

auc: 0.608, topGain: (feature: a_hits, gainShare: 0.028); (feature: h_prevOppStr, gainShare: 0.027); (feature: h_luSk, gainShare: 0.026); (feature: a_lPP, gainShare: 0.025); (feature: a_lPK, gainShare: 0.025); (feature: h_lPP, gainShare: 0.025); (feature: a_nextOppStr, gainShare: 0.025); (feature: h_refRate, gainShare: 0.025); (feature: h_eG, gainShare: 0.025); (feature: h_eX, gainShare: 0.024) (d'où vient ce nombre)

canary

rows: (feature: canary_final_margin, auc: 0.977, directionalAuc: 0.977, flag: yes, expectedAuc: —); (feature: canary_homeWin_plus_noise_sd0.5, auc: 0.925, directionalAuc: 0.925, flag: yes, expectedAuc: 0.921); (feature: canary_homeWin_plus_noise_sd1.5_weak, auc: 0.681, directionalAuc: 0.681, flag: no, expectedAuc: 0.681), multivariateAucWithCanary: 0.923, canaryGainRank: 1, canaryGainShare: 0.539, topGainWithCanary: (feature: canary_homeWin_plus_noise_sd0.5, gainShare: 0.539); (feature: a_oppGkShare, gainShare: 0.013); (feature: h_lPP, gainShare: 0.013); (feature: h_luSk, gainShare: 0.013); (feature: a_hits, gainShare: 0.012), detectorProven: yes, weakCanaryFlagged: no, note: the sd1.5 canary (theoretical AUC 0.68) is BELOW the 0.75 rule on purpose: it documents the smallest leak the univariate rule can miss (d'où vient ce nombre)

runtimeSeconds

328.9 (d'où vient ce nombre)

generatedAt

2026-09-29T02:58:55Z (d'où vient ce nombre)

seed

11 (d'où vient ce nombre)

method

dieboldMariano: stat = mean(d)/sqrt(LRV/n), d = loss_A - loss_B per game; LRV with Bartlett lags h-1 = 0 (one-step forecasts) plus a Newey-West automatic-lag variant; pNormal from N(0,1); pHLN = Harvey-Leybourne-Newbold correction against t(n-1), bootstrap: paired percentile bootstrap of mean(d), 5000 resamples of games with replacement, minEvaluable: 100 (d'où vient ce nombre)

live

a: champion, b: ratings-only, n: 14, meanLossA: 0.691, meanLossB: 0.718, meanDiff: -0.027, dieboldMariano: (n: 14, meanDiff: -0.027, lags: 0, stat: -0.55, pNormal: 0.582, statHLN: -0.53, pHLN: 0.605, neweyWest: (lags: 2, stat: -0.613, pNormal: 0.54)), pairedBootstrap: (n: 14, mean: -0.027, range: -0.119, 0.071, shareBelowZero: 0.71, excludesZero: no, B: 5000), verdict: not evaluable: only 14 games (needs 100+); reported for the record, context: (source: data/ledger/live-games.csv, gameTypes: 1, note: preseason games; lineups known), accuracy: (champion: 0.5, ratingsOnly: 0.5) (d'où vient ce nombre)

engines2025

win: (n: 1311, engines: (closed: 2 fields, markov: 2 fields, mc: 2 fields), pairs: (9 fields); (9 fields); (9 fields)), finish: (n: 1311, engines: (closed: 2 fields, markov: 2 fields, mc: 2 fields), pairs: (9 fields); (9 fields); (9 fields)), score: (n: 1311, engines: (closed: 2 fields, markov: 2 fields, mc: 2 fields), pairs: (9 fields); (9 fields); (9 fields)) (d'où vient ce nombre)

championVsClosed2025

a: champion, b: closed engine, n: 1311, meanLossA: 0.681, meanLossB: 0.676, meanDiff: 0.005, dieboldMariano: (n: 1311, meanDiff: 0.005, lags: 0, stat: 1.532, pNormal: 0.126, statHLN: 1.531, pHLN: 0.126, neweyWest: (lags: 7, stat: 1.544, pNormal: 0.123)), pairedBootstrap: (n: 1311, mean: 0.005, range: -0.001, 0.011, shareBelowZero: 0.062, excludesZero: no, B: 5000), verdict: not distinguishable, context: (season: 2025, matchedGames: 1311, columnSemantics: preds-2025.csv *_win = probability assigned to the actual winner (not P(home win)); champion converted to -log P(actual)) (d'où vient ce nombre)

columnSemanticsNote

preds-2025.csv columns *_win/*_finish/*_score are the probabilities each engine assigned to what actually happened (winner, finish type, exact score); the log s (d'où vient ce nombre)

realityCheck

— (d'où vient ce nombre)

realityCheckReason

White (2000) reality check / Hansen SPA over the 49,152 block-search versions needs the per-game loss series of every version; data/models/block-search.json sto (d'où vient ce nombre)

runtimeSeconds

0.6 (d'où vient ce nombre)

generatedAt

2026-10-18T12:34:43Z (d'où vient ce nombre)

method

Drift: feature distribution shift in features.csv and change-points in the champion's per-game residuals. Features: for every h_/a_ column, the population stab (d'où vient ce nombre)

features

columns: 98, summaryTable: (season: 2018, vs: pooled2018_2022, reference: 2018-2022 (includes itself), nCurrent: 1271, nReference: 5845, psiOver0.10: 26, psiOver0.25: 8, ksPBelow0.01: 50, medianPsi: 0.022, top10: 10 items); (season: 2019, vs: previous, reference: 2018, nCurrent: 1082, nReference: 1271, psiOver0.10: 28, psiOver0.25: 21, ksPBelow0.01: 40, medianPsi: 0.021, top10: 10 items); (season: 2019, vs: pooled2018_2022, reference: 2018-2022 (includes itself), nCurrent: 1082, nReference: 5845, psiOver0.10: 13, psiOver0.25: 4, ksPBelow0.01: 32, medianPsi: 0.013, top10: 10 items); (season: 2020, vs: previous, reference: 2019, nCurrent: 868, nReference: 1082, psiOver0.10: 25, psiOver0.25: 4, ksPBelow0.01: 37, medianPsi: 0.039, top10: 10 items); (season: 2020, vs: pooled2018_2022, reference: 2018-2022 (includes itself), nCurrent: 868, nReference: 5845, psiOver0.10: 16, psiOver0.25: 7, ksPBelow0.01: 38, medianPsi: 0.032, top10: 10 items); (season: 2021, vs: previous, reference: 2020, nCurrent: 1312, nReference: 868, psiOver0.10: 24, psiOver0.25: 9, ksPBelow0.01: 46, medianPsi: 0.03, top10: 10 items); (season: 2021, vs: pooled2018_2022, reference: 2018-2022 (includes itself), nCurrent: 1312, nReference: 5845, psiOver0.10: 2, psiOver0.25: 2, ksPBelow0.01: 33, medianPsi: 0.011, top10: 10 items); (season: 2022, vs: previous, reference: 2021, nCurrent: 1312, nReference: 1312, psiOver0.10: 16, psiOver0.25: 6, ksPBelow0.01: 34, medianPsi: 0.014, top10: 10 items); (season: 2022, vs: pooled2018_2022, reference: 2018-2022 (includes itself), nCurrent: 1312, nReference: 5845, psiOver0.10: 17, psiOver0.25: 6, ksPBelow0.01: 41, medianPsi: 0.013, top10: 10 items); (season: 2023, vs: previous, reference: 2022, nCurrent: 1312, nReference: 1312, psiOver0.10: 9, psiOver0.25: 6, ksPBelow0.01: 19, medianPsi: 0.01, top10: 10 items); (season: 2023, vs: pooled2018_2022, reference: 2018-2022, nCurrent: 1312, nReference: 5845, psiOver0.10: 22, psiOver0.25: 8, ksPBelow0.01: 36, medianPsi: 0.02, top10: 10 items); (season: 2024, vs: previous, reference: 2023, nCurrent: 1312, nReference: 1312, psiOver0.10: 14, psiOver0.25: 6, ksPBelow0.01: 30, medianPsi: 0.01, top10: 10 items) … +5 more, pairs: (2018_vs_pooled2018_2022: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2019_vs_previous: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2019_vs_pooled2018_2022: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2020_vs_previous: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2020_vs_pooled2018_2022: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2021_vs_previous: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2021_vs_pooled2018_2022: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2022_vs_previous: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2022_vs_pooled2018_2022: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2023_vs_previous: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2023_vs_pooled2018_2022: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items), 2024_vs_previous: (summary: 10 fields, features: 98 items) … +5 fields), reading: PSI: <0.10 stable, 0.10-0.25 moderate, >0.25 major. Season-level inputs (league scoring rate, referee rates, takeaway/giveaway tracking) shift every season by construction; the champion uses home-minus-away differences, which cancel league-level shifts. (d'où vient ce nombre)

championCusum

ordering: schedule date, then game id, surprise: (label: champion log-loss surprise (L - H(p)), n: 7006, meanResidual: 0.004, sd: 0.284, maxDeviation: 41.51, maxDeviationScaled: 1.748, changePointIndex: 1977, changePointDate: 2022-04-26, meanBefore: -0.017, meanAfter: 0.012, permutationP: 0.009, permutations: 2000 … +2 fields), outcomeResidual: (label: champion outcome residual (y - p), n: 7006, meanResidual: 0, sd: 0.48, maxDeviation: 29.253, maxDeviationScaled: 0.728, changePointIndex: 5655, changePointDate: 2025-04-12, meanBefore: 0.005, meanAfter: -0.022, permutationP: 0.65, permutations: 2000 … +2 fields), perSeason: (2020: (n: 803, meanSurprise: -0.013, meanOutcomeResidual: 0.003, logLoss: 0.648), 2021: (n: 1210, meanSurprise: -0.017, meanOutcomeResidual: 0, logLoss: 0.626), 2022: (n: 1217, meanSurprise: 0.014, meanOutcomeResidual: -0.009, logLoss: 0.646), 2023: (n: 1230, meanSurprise: 0.012, meanOutcomeResidual: 0.003, logLoss: 0.654), 2024: (n: 1235, meanSurprise: -0.001, meanOutcomeResidual: 0.024, logLoss: 0.653), 2025: (n: 1311, meanSurprise: 0.021, meanOutcomeResidual: -0.019, logLoss: 0.681)) (d'où vient ce nombre)

liveLedgerCusum

n: 144, insufficient: no, minGames: 50, undated: 0, reason: —, meanSurprise: -0.014, meanOutcomeResidual: 0.011, cusumPathSurprise: -0.149, -0.385, -0.457, -0.406, -0.109, 0.161, 0.276, 0.286, 0.009, -0.04, -0.288, 0.561 … +132 more, dates: 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-26 … +132 more, forTheRecord: (surprise: (label: live surprise, n: 144, meanResidual: -0.014, sd: 0.251, maxDeviation: 2.647, maxDeviationScaled: 0.88, changePointIndex: 34, changePointDate: 2026-10-02, meanBefore: 0.061, meanAfter: -0.038, permutationP: 0.365, permutations: 500 … +2 fields), outcome: (label: live outcome residual, n: 144, meanResidual: 0.011, sd: 0.474, maxDeviation: 3.62, maxDeviationScaled: 0.636, changePointIndex: 40, changePointDate: 2026-10-03, meanBefore: -0.077, meanAfter: 0.047, permutationP: 0.731, permutations: 500 … +2 fields)) (d'où vient ce nombre)

runtimeSeconds

1.4 (d'où vient ce nombre)

naive

home club wins; last season's points; ratings only (logged in the ledger as a challenger) (d'où vient ce nombre)

market

closing lines not yet licensed (The Odds API key pending); the honest ceiling is unknown until then (d'où vient ce nombre)

bookSimulation

bookLogLoss: 0.671 (d'où vient ce nombre)

• Saturated on public box-score data: 49,152 versions found nothing better on proof seasons. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• 60 to 70% tier was about four points over-confident in the v2 validation. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• 2025-26 was the hardest season for every model (~0.68). (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Starting goalies are not named by the league feed before puck drop; a starters feed is connected but keyless. (d'où vient ce nombre)

trainedOn

2023-24, 2024-25 (d'où vient ce nombre)

testedOn

2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

results

games: 1311, winLogLoss: 0.677, finishLogLoss: 1.234, scoreLogLoss: 3.644, totalGoalsMAE: 1.839, mostLikelyScoreHit: 0.074, sixPlusGoals: (predicted: 0.523, actual: 0.574) (d'où vient ce nombre)

calibration

(bucket: 10-20%, games: 1, predicted: 0.183, actual: 0); (bucket: 20-30%, games: 10, predicted: 0.265, actual: 0); (bucket: 30-40%, games: 104, predicted: 0.362, actual: 0.404); (bucket: 40-50%, games: 352, predicted: 0.456, actual: 0.472); (bucket: 50-60%, games: 510, predicted: 0.549, actual: 0.508); (bucket: 60-70%, games: 277, predicted: 0.643, actual: 0.625); (bucket: 70-80%, games: 52, predicted: 0.737, actual: 0.808); (bucket: 80-90%, games: 5, predicted: 0.812, actual: 0.4) (d'où vient ce nombre)

tieInflation

1.46 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

generatedAt

2026-09-29T03:14:33Z (d'où vient ce nombre)

registerId

momentum-hawkes-v1 (d'où vient ce nombre)

verdict

no momentum: goals are LESS clustered than the time-varying, score-dependent null (a refractory window after a goal; holds in core time before 55:00 as well), a (d'où vient ce nombre)

method

Do goals cluster in time more than a Poisson process with a time-varying rate predicts? ("momentum") Data: goals files 2021-2025 (regular season, start years 2 (d'où vient ce nombre)

data

seasons: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, games: 6549, regulationGoals: 39414, intervals: 32886 (d'où vient ce nombre)

nullModel

replicates: 200, cells: 60 minutes x |score diff| {0,1,2,3+}, pseudoCountSeconds: 5, rateGoalsPer60ByDiff: 5.498, 6.368, 6.541, 6.553, rateLastMinuteByDiffGoalsPer60: 4.027, 31.768, 25.425, 4.663, homeShareBySignedDiff: (0: 0.513, 1: 0.528, 2: 0.563, 3: 0.536, -3: 0.489, -2: 0.49, -1: 0.503), goalsByMinute: 405, 540, 508, 576, 676, 549, 612, 605, 570, 568, 589, 583 … +48 more (d'où vient ce nombre)

intervals

data: (count: 32886, mean: 497.365, q10: 68, q25: 161, median: 366, q75: 695, q90: 1126, under30: 0.032, under60: 0.085, under120: 0.186, replyGoals60: 2797, replyGoals120: 6125), dataVsNull: (mean: (data: 497.365, nullMean: 489.147, nullSD: 2.562, null2.5: 484.291, null97.5: 493.925, z: 3.21, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), q10: (data: 68, nullMean: 50.894, nullSD: 0.899, null2.5: 49, null97.5: 52.025, z: 19.03, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), q25: (data: 161, nullMean: 142.331, nullSD: 1.623, null2.5: 139, null97.5: 145, z: 11.5, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), median: (data: 366, nullMean: 349.048, nullSD: 2.958, null2.5: 344, null97.5: 355, z: 5.73, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), q75: (data: 695, nullMean: 693.928, nullSD: 4.739, null2.5: 685, null97.5: 703, z: 0.23, mcPTwoSided: 0.935), q90: (data: 1126, nullMean: 1126.455, nullSD: 7.803, null2.5: 1110.975, null97.5: 1141, z: -0.06, mcPTwoSided: 0.935), under30: (data: 0.032, nullMean: 0.059, nullSD: 0.001, null2.5: 0.057, null97.5: 0.062, z: -20.57, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), under60: (data: 0.085, nullMean: 0.116, nullSD: 0.002, null2.5: 0.113, null97.5: 0.119, z: -17.9, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), under120: (data: 0.186, nullMean: 0.215, nullSD: 0.002, null2.5: 0.212, null97.5: 0.221, z: -12.73, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), replyGoals60: (data: 2797, nullMean: 3808.26, nullSD: 65, null2.5: 3701, null97.5: 3942.1, z: -15.56, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), replyGoals120: (data: 6125, nullMean: 7091.535, nullSD: 95.555, null2.5: 6910, null97.5: 7277, z: -10.11, mcPTwoSided: 0.005), count: (data: 32886, nullMean: 32901.155, nullSD: 187.357, null2.5: 32525.85, null97.5: 33292.025, z: -0.08, mcPTwoSided: 0.955) … +1 fields), excessReplyGoalsWithin60s: -1011.3, coreTime: (definition: intervals whose second goal is before 55:00, intervalsData: 27789, intervalsNullMean: 27799.5, under60: (data: 0.084, nullMean: 0.11, null2.5: 0.106, null97.5: 0.114, z: -13.99), windows: (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields); (7 fields)), direction: anti-clustering (refractory) (d'où vient ce nombre)

hawkes

data: (alpha: 0, beta: 0.005, meanDelaySeconds: 212.158, muPerSecond: 0.001, 0.002, 0.002, muPerPeriodGoals: 1.77, 2.096, 2.152, logLik: -291280.265, iterations: 98, goals: 39414, games: 6549, logLikPoissonByPeriod: -291280.234), bootstrap: (B: 200, alpha95: 0, 0, beta95: 0.004, 0.005, meanDelaySeconds95: 198.8, 224.6), null: (replicatesFitted: 40, alphaMean: 0.006, alpha95: 0.001, 0.014, meanDelayMean: 43.5, alphaMcP: 1, reading: alpha the misspecified Hawkes (period-constant background) attributes to self-excitation on data with NONE), byPeriodData: (period1: (alpha: 0, meanDelaySeconds: 121.1, goals: 11590), period2: (alpha: 0, meanDelaySeconds: 127, goals: 13728), period3: (alpha: 0, meanDelaySeconds: 102.7, goals: 14096)), branchingRatioReading: alpha = expected number of goals triggered by one goal under the Hawkes reading; compare with null alpha before believing it, betaNote: when alpha is (numerically) zero the kernel carries no mass and beta / the mean delay are not identified; they are the EM values at convergence and should not be read as a timescale (d'où vient ce nombre)

runtimeSeconds

73.9 (d'où vient ce nombre)

• Totals under-predicted: 52.9% of games predicted at six or more goals against 57.3% observed. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Poisson independence; Dixon-Coles, bivariate Poisson and negative binomial are on the register as challengers. (d'où vient ce nombre)

goalLayer

2019-20 to 2024-25 (d'où vient ce nombre)

pointLayer

2022-23 to 2024-25 (d'où vient ce nombre)

constants

DECAY: 0.97, K_SHOT: 8, K_FIN: 120 (d'où vient ce nombre)

goal

season: 2025-26, logLoss: 0.381, baseline: 0.386 (d'où vient ce nombre)

point

season: 2025-26, logLoss: 0.592, baseline: 0.597 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• Stars (40%+) about 3.5 points over-confident. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Needs the confirmed starter; the league feed lists both goalies. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

note

Adds 0.6777 to 0.6772 win log loss on 2025-26 (register entry hist-2026-09-26-lineups). (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• Relative on-ice xG, not isolated: RAPM values replace these ratings when the measurement desk's run completes. (d'où vient ce nombre)

seasons

2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

note

Reliability card: year-over-year and split-half r; component enters WAR only if its register entry passes. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• Positions from the roster history; 2026-27 sealed and never read. (d'où vient ce nombre)

seasons

2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

note

Reliability card: year-over-year and split-half r; component enters WAR only if its register entry passes. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• Positions from the roster history; 2026-27 sealed and never read. (d'où vient ce nombre)

seasons

2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

note

Reliability card: year-over-year and split-half r; component enters WAR only if its register entry passes. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• Positions from the roster history; 2026-27 sealed and never read. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Offsetting minors dilute the per-minor value; bench minors credit no player. (d'où vient ce nombre)

seasons

2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

note

Reliability card: year-over-year and split-half r; component enters WAR only if its register entry passes. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• Positions from the roster history; 2026-27 sealed and never read. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Faceoff value per win is small (about 0.01 goals in an end zone). (d'où vient ce nombre)

seasons

2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

testedOn

next-season club points % (2022-23 to 2025-26) (d'où vient ce nombre)

r

0.62 (d'où vient ce nombre)

range95

0.524, 0.704 (d'où vient ce nombre)

baselinePointsR

0.55 (d'où vient ce nombre)

baselineRange95

0.417, 0.662 (d'où vient ce nombre)

clubSeasons

128 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• Skaters only; goalie WAR waits on P5.8. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Component errors are combined as independent. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Reliability is not value: a repeatable style need not save goals. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Event timing comes from the arena scorer; home-rink recording is not yet separated. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Reliability is not value: a repeatable style need not save goals. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Event timing comes from the arena scorer; home-rink recording is not yet separated. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Reliability is not value: a repeatable style need not save goals. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Event timing comes from the arena scorer; home-rink recording is not yet separated. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

testedOn

2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

gainPerGame

0 (d'où vient ce nombre)

range95

0, 0 (d'où vient ce nombre)

formSdOverTalentSd

0.496 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• One season of proof (2025-26); form is a random walk with one variance for every player. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Gains are per game and small; a real form effect is not a large one. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

testedOn

2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

gainPerGame

0 (d'où vient ce nombre)

range95

0, 0.001 (d'où vient ce nombre)

formSdOverTalentSd

2.864 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• One season of proof (2025-26); form is a random walk with one variance for every player. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Gains are per game and small; a real form effect is not a large one. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Search range for finish widened in p5-5-nowcast-finish-v2; v1 chose its top edge. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

testedOn

2025-26 (d'où vient ce nombre)

gainPerGame

0 (d'où vient ce nombre)

range95

0, 0 (d'où vient ce nombre)

formSdOverTalentSd

0.496 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

• One season of proof (2025-26); form is a random walk with one variance for every player. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Gains are per game and small; a real form effect is not a large one. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Mostly a club measure: it repeats because goalies stay with clubs (changed-club r is reported). (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Heavy games are back-to-backs or 35+ shots only; travel and rest days beyond that are not modelled. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Coach decisions drive it as much as the goalie; relief entries are excluded. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Road games only halve the sample; event timing still comes from arena scorers. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• One season of proof; a single form variance for every shooter. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• No coach terms (no coach-by-game file); aging drift measured from the chained estimates themselves. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Distance from the previous event replaced by its zone; tested on one season (2025-26). (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Not adopted until its hub card is approved. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Fitting uncertainty only (50 refits); model-form error is not counted. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Length-scale chose the lower edge of its grid (2 years) in every group. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Exit model is reported, not used in the forecast. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

Absent du dossier.

• Shot (for) fields only; save fields not built. (d'où vient ce nombre)
• Venue field partly overlaps the home club field. (d'où vient ce nombre)