Returning regular · 2025-26
Tyler Pitlick
Minnesota Wild · C · R shot · age 34 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- MIN
- Lane
- C
- Age
- 34
Production and deployment
Official split unavailable
The live official report did not return a matching player row. The dated roster identity and lane screen remain available; production stays unknown.
Organizational context
6 C regulars in MIN
The all-team median is 7. MIN’s farm system ranks #26 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Tonight
MIN do not play today
League schedule for 2026-09-29; next league date 2026-09-30.
Latest move: The Minnesota Wild waived F Tyler Pitlick. (2026-09-24).
White noise · as of 2026-09-29 · social 2026-09-29
Tyler Pitlick is in the middle of the pack for attention (41th percentile); attention this week is 3.93× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: 3 posts named him this week on Bluesky · 1 likes, reposts and replies · no baseline yet, it needs a week of readings.
Contract · MIN
$0.78M cap hit
2025–26 through 2026–27 · UFA at expiry. Reported
Role question › Costs more per point than the position median and is below the line on five-on-five creation and penalty-kill use. Either the contract or the deployment needs a look.
- He did not reach the five-on-five sample (20 games and 10:00 a night at five-on-five), so the rate test cannot pass.
- At 0.7% of the cap, almost any NHL production is surplus.
- 7 real points at this cap hit would pass the cost test (he had 2).
- A five-on-five rate of 1.68 per 60 (he had no qualifying sample) or a regular penalty-kill role (1:00+ a night) would pass the Cup side.
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.756). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
Career arc · era-adjusted points per 82 games
Tyler Pitlick, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (80% band), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: quantile regression (10th/50th/90th) of qualifying seasons on an age spline, weighted for players who drop out.
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected 27 NHL hours through his age-25 season (80% band 1 to 100). He logged 10 hours, between the 10th percentile and the median.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | 22 | 10 | 8.7 | 6.2 to 78.8 |
| 2014-15 | 23 | 17 | 10.2 | −1.1 to 53.4 |
| 2016-17 | 25 | 31 | 30.5 | −5.0 to 42.1 |
| 2017-18 | 26 | 80 | 26.9 | 9.8 to 43.6 |
| 2018-19 | 27 | 47 | 20.0 | 9.3 to 42.2 |
| 2019-20 | 28 | 63 | 25.0 | 4.7 to 36.7 |
| 2020-21 | 29 | 38 | 23.3 | 3.8 to 38.9 |
| 2021-22 | 30 | 39 | 9.6 | 1.4 to 37.2 |
| 2022-23 | 31 | 61 | 19.5 | −5.9 to 26.9 |
| 2023-24 | 32 | 34 | 8.9 | −4.9 to 31.0 |
| 2025-26 | 34 | 32 | 4.7 | −19.9 to 22.5 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-09-29
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 31 to 34
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 16 USHS-MN 2.19 → age 17 High-MN 2.56 → age 18 NCAA 0.50 → age 19 WHL 1.11 → age 20 AHL 0.37 → age 21 AHL 0.23 → age 22 NHL 0.10 → age 23 NHL 0.12 → age 24 AHL 0.57 → age 25 NHL 0.35 → age 26 NHL 0.34 → age 27 NHL 0.26 → age 28 NHL 0.32 → age 29 NHL 0.29 → age 30 NHL 0.08 → age 31 NHL 0.26 → age 32 NHL 0.12 → age 33 AHL 0.78 → age 34 NHL 0.06
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Nick FolignoL · matched at ages 31, 32, 33, 34 | 0.22 | age 35 NHL 0.43 → age 36 NHL 0.50 → age 37 NHL 0.45 → age 38 NHL 0.30 |
| Lars EllerC · matched at ages 31, 32, 33, 34 | 0.26 | age 35 NHL 0.41 → age 36 NHL 0.22 |
| Jordan StaalC · matched at ages 31, 32, 33, 34 | 0.36 | age 35 NHL 0.38 → age 36 NHL 0.48 → age 37 NHL 0.48 |
| Corey PerryR · matched at ages 31, 32, 33, 34 | 0.38 | age 35 NHL 0.43 → age 36 NHL 0.49 → age 37 NHL 0.31 → age 38 NHL 0.56 → age 39 NHL 0.37 |
| Mikael BacklundC · matched at ages 31, 32, 33, 34 | 0.44 | age 35 NHL 0.48 → age 36 NHL 0.42 → age 37 NHL 0.52 |
| Alex KillornL · matched at ages 31, 32, 33, 34 | 0.48 | age 35 NHL 0.45 → age 36 NHL 0.40 |
| Miroslav SatanC · matched at ages 31, 32, 33, 34 | 0.48 | age 35 NHL 0.37 → age 36 Slovakia 0.32 → age 37 Slovakia 0.21 → age 38 KHL 0.44 → age 39 KHL 0.40 |
| Jamie BennL · matched at ages 31, 32, 33, 34 | 0.54 | age 35 NHL 0.61 → age 36 NHL 0.60 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Roster moves · as of 2026-09-28
Latest club announcements
Waivers, claims, injured reserve, the minors and signings as the club announced them (Sportradar NHL API v7, league transfers feed; licensed feed (30-day trial)). No cause is read into an injured-reserve placement.
2026-09-24 · placed on waivers · The Minnesota Wild waived F Tyler Pitlick.
Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: 0 points per 60 in the ten games before, 1.32 in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.