What the schedule does to each club.
Every regular-season game priced by the model with each club's rest state, then summed: opponents faced, nights off, back-to-backs, third games in four nights, travel and time zones, and the expected points that fall out. Difficulty is a league rank, not an opinion.
- Games priced
- 1344
- Hardest
- FLA, BOS, SEA
- Easiest
- ANA, CGY, MTL
Season
| Club | Difficulty rank | Opponent rating vs league | Back-to-backs | 3 in 4 nights | Rest disadvantage − advantage | Travel (km) | Expected points (model) | Expected points rank | Next 10: opponent rating vs league | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | +1.1 | 14 | 15 | 5 | 75k | 84.5 | 26 | +4.5 | |
| BOS | 2 | +0.9 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 66k | 89.2 | 22 | +7.8 | |
| SEA | 3 | +0.5 | 13 | 20 | 3 | 88k | 80.2 | 27 | -3.9 | |
| PIT | 4 | +1.2 | 15 | 18 | 3 | 50k | 98.6 | 12 | +6.8 | |
| TOR | 5 | +2.4 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 60k | 78.4 | 29 | +11.4 | |
| SJS | 6 | -0.5 | 13 | 17 | 4 | 74k | 78.7 | 28 | -6.6 | |
| OTT | 7 | -0.7 | 14 | 18 | 6 | 67k | 107.2 | 4 | -4.7 | |
| TBL | 8 | -0.3 | 13 | 16 | 0 | 74k | 104.5 | 5 | +1.6 | |
| CBJ | 9 | +0.9 | 13 | 16 | 3 | 61k | 91.7 | 20 | +6.3 | |
| WSH | 10 | +2.1 | 14 | 13 | -1 | 59k | 93.6 | 17 | +8.7 | |
| NYI | 11 | +1.2 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 58k | 92.7 | 18 | -11 | |
| CHI | 12 | +1.7 | 12 | 17 | -3 | 73k | 73.9 | 31 | +12.3 | |
| NJD | 13 | +1.6 | 13 | 17 | -1 | 59k | 90.7 | 21 | +4.3 | |
| WPG | 14 | +0.4 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 79k | 88.9 | 23 | +7.4 | |
| BUF | 15 | -0.3 | 14 | 17 | 4 | 53k | 100.3 | 8 | -3.1 | |
| VAN | 16 | +1.6 | 11 | 12 | -2 | 73k | 72.5 | 32 | +7.4 | |
| CAR | 17 | -0.2 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 71k | 109.1 | 3 | -15 | |
| DAL | 18 | -0.6 | 13 | 16 | -2 | 78k | 103.7 | 6 | +1.6 | |
| MIN | 19 | -1.1 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 75k | 100.2 | 9 | +4.6 | |
| NYR | 20 | +2.1 | 11 | 16 | -4 | 62k | 92.6 | 19 | -1 | |
| EDM | 21 | -1.7 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 74k | 103.4 | 7 | -3.3 | |
| NSH | 22 | +1.1 | 11 | 16 | -1 | 66k | 84.6 | 25 | +4.2 | |
| UTA | 23 | -1 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 77k | 99.2 | 11 | -2.8 | |
| PHI | 24 | +0.8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 55k | 98 | 13 | +10 | |
| DET | 25 | +1.2 | 12 | 12 | -3 | 57k | 88.2 | 24 | -10.9 | |
| COL | 26 | -2.4 | 10 | 10 | -2 | 81k | 117.6 | 1 | -2.8 | |
| LAK | 27 | -1.6 | 10 | 14 | -1 | 73k | 93.7 | 16 | +5.8 | |
| VGK | 28 | -2.8 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 82k | 112.9 | 2 | -17.8 | |
| STL | 29 | -0.7 | 12 | 15 | -4 | 71k | 95 | 15 | +5.2 | |
| MTL | 30 | +0.8 | 10 | 8 | -9 | 63k | 95.6 | 14 | -6.5 | |
| CGY | 31 | +0.9 | 8 | 10 | -7 | 70k | 76.8 | 30 | +4.1 | |
| ANA | 32 | -1.7 | 11 | 16 | -7 | 72k | 99.3 | 10 | -5.9 |
Method
Every regular-season game is priced by the champion (the ledger's function) with each club's rest state; expected points come from the score model's finishes (2 for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss). Rest days are nights off between games; a back-to-back is zero. Travel is the great-circle distance from the previous arena, time zones from standard-time offsets. Difficulty rank averages four league ranks: opponent rating (the game model's xG Elo, last season's until this one has enough games), net rest disadvantage, travel distance and back-to-backs. Expected points rank is the model's own and depends on the club's strength as well as its schedule. Ratings are the game model's expected-goal Elo, league mean 1499.1. Each club's page carries its game-by-game schedule with the price, the rest spot and the travel for every date, and the same facts appear on each game page. Rebuilt every morning as ratings move.