Explainable calculator
Qualifying Offer
User-entered assumptions, effective rules, citations, intermediate steps, warnings, and reproducible output.
Working calculator
Qualifying-offer worksheet
About this page
What this page covers
Rule locked
Effective date, version, citation, and source accompany the result.
Traceable
Inputs, steps, relief, warnings, and intermediate totals stay visible.
Reproducible
A stable calculation payload can be saved and compared.
Evidence architecture
Four kinds of evidence, kept apart
CapOrCup does not flatten “true,” “projected,” “believed,” and “argued” into the same feed.
Canonical facts
Executed agreements, official registries, notices, reports, and authorized feeds.
Licensed feeds
Roster transactions (waivers, claims, injured reserve, assignments to the minors, signings) come from Sportradar's NHL transfers feed on a 30-day trial: club-announced facts relayed by a licensed distributor, shown with the feed named and never turned into an inference about cause.
CapOrCup analysis
Neutral calculations, research, rule interpretation, and model output with versions.
Fandaq belief
Aggregated belief movement is labelled as market evidence, never an official event.
FilthyGM argument
Opinion and argument stay attributed and visibly separate from neutral analysis.
Licensed and external feeds
What comes from a feed, and how fresh it is
Site data as of: roster moves to 2026-10-17 · injury listings 2026-10-18 · projected lineups 2026-10-12 · odds 2026-10-18 · attention 2026-10-18 (social 2026-10-18) · model state 2026-10-18 · build dpl_2RYonwr9. Each feed is named wherever its data appears. The site never calls a feed at run time; a morning job pulls, builds and deploys.
Roster moves
waivers, claims, injured reserve, assignments to the minors, recalls, releases, signings. 1230 moves on file from 2026-09-19.
Club injury listings
status, body area, listed-since and expected-return dates as clubs publish them. 135 active listings.
Projected lineups
lines, pairs, power-play units and the expected starting goalie per club. refreshed weekly on the trial budget.
Market odds
consensus home win probability and total per game, across books. 53 games priced.
League stories (attention)
stories tagged to each player and club in the league's own news feed, counted for white noise.
Wikipedia pageviews (attention)
daily views of each player's and club's article against a 90-day baseline, for white noise.
Bluesky public search (AT Protocol AppView) (attention)
posts naming each player and club in the last 7 days, with likes, reposts and replies, for white noise; no post text is shown on the site. 1318 players and clubs measured.
Not connected yet
Feeds the site is built to accept
Each has a normalizer slot and a key name in the hub vault. Connecting one changes nothing downstream.
Starting goalies
the morning's expected starters replaced by projected and confirmed ones from a feed; connector built.
The ear
the radio call aligned to the clock: names heard per booth, later call energy and what the booth reported; connector and matcher built.
Second injury source
a second club-listing source to cross-check the first; connectors built.
Reddit (attention)
posts and comment volume naming each player and club in r/hockey and the club's subreddit, plus each subreddit's audience, added to white noise; connector built.
X post counts (attention)
posts per day naming each player and club, added to white noise; connector built.