Returning regular · 2025-26
Zack MacEwen
Toronto Maple Leafs · C · — shot · age 30 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- TOR
- Lane
- C
- Age
- 30
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
9 C regulars in TOR
The all-team median is 7. TOR’s farm system ranks #16 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Tonight · LIVE
MTL at TOR
Projected slot from the licensed depth chart; props from the model's learned layer on shots, finishing and the opposing starter; ratings are last season's until this one has enough games. Information, not a recommendation.
Nothing listed against Zack MacEwen.
White noise · as of 2026-09-29 · social 2026-09-29
Zack MacEwen is among the most talked-about (92th percentile); attention this week is 16.64× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: 11 posts named him this week on Bluesky · 22 likes, reposts and replies · no baseline yet, it needs a week of readings.
Contract
No contract for this player has been sourced yet. CapOrCup does not estimate it.
From the video · model judgement
What the condensed games showed
Read from the league's free condensed games (1 game so far): entries, exits, battles and turnovers the model could see and attribute to his jersey number. A condensed game is a sample of the game, so these are observations, not season counts.
Most often up against: S. Harrington (2), L. Meriläinen (2), S. Bolduc (1).
Career arc · era-adjusted points per 82 games
Zack MacEwen, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (80% band), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: quantile regression (10th/50th/90th) of qualifying seasons on an age spline, weighted for players who drop out.
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
No draft projection: projections exist for players drafted from 2005 on who have season lines on file.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 22 | 4 | 19.6 | −4.0 to 89.0 |
| 2019-20 | 23 | 17 | 27.8 | 7.3 to 67.8 |
| 2020-21 | 24 | 34 | 4.7 | 11.3 to 54.5 |
| 2021-22 | 25 | 75 | 9.0 | −2.5 to 30.7 |
| 2022-23 | 26 | 56 | 13.3 | −5.4 to 26.2 |
| 2023-24 | 27 | 30 | 7.6 | −7.6 to 29.6 |
| 2024-25 | 28 | 21 | 11.1 | −13.8 to 29.0 |
| 2025-26 | 29 | 3 | 0.0 | −39.3 to 53.1 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-09-29
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 25 to 28
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 13 PEIBAAA 1.52 → age 14 PEIBAAA 1.70 → age 15 PEI U18 1.07 → age 16 NBPEIMMHL 0.94 → age 17 MJAHL 0.28 → age 18 MJAHL 1.13 → age 19 QMJHL 0.61 → age 20 QMJHL 1.12 → age 21 AHL 0.50 → age 22 AHL 0.75 → age 23 NHL 0.35 → age 24 NHL 0.06 → age 25 NHL 0.12 → age 26 NHL 0.20 → age 27 NHL 0.10 → age 28 NHL 0.14
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie MacEachernL · matched at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 | 0.03 | age 29 AHL 0.37 → age 30 AHL 0.25 → age 31 AHL 0.36 → age 32 AHL 0.17 |
| Kurtis MacDermidL · matched at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 | 0.04 | age 29 NHL 0.14 → age 30 NHL 0.07 → age 31 NHL 0.00 → age 32 NHL 0.05 |
| Hayden HodgsonR · matched at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 | 0.06 | age 29 AHL 0.12 → age 30 NHL 0.00 |
| Dominik ShineR · matched at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 | 0.06 | age 29 AHL 0.17 → age 30 AHL 0.23 → age 31 AHL 0.34 → age 32 NHL 0.17 |
| Liam O'BrienC · matched at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 | 0.07 | age 29 NHL 0.19 → age 30 NHL 0.07 → age 31 NHL 0.10 |
| Jake LucchiniC · matched at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 | 0.07 | age 29 AHL 0.29 → age 30 AHL 0.36 |
| Dominic ToninatoC · matched at ages 25, 26, 28 | 0.07 | age 29 AHL 0.32 → age 30 NHL 0.33 → age 31 AHL 0.27 → age 32 AHL 0.38 |
| Roger McQueenC · matched at ages 25, 26, 27, 28 | 0.07 | age 29 ECHL 0.19 → age 30 ECHL 0.14 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Club listings · licensed feeds
What the club lists him as
An injury listing and a projected slot are the club's statements relayed by a licensed feed, shown with their dates. CapOrCup infers nothing from them.
Projected slot · line 4 right wing (TOR depth chart as of 2026-09-28; Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts)
Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: 1.63 points per 60 in the ten games before, 2.67 in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.