Returning regular · 2025-26
Rory Kerins
Calgary Flames · C · — shot · age 24 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- CGY
- Lane
- C
- Age
- 24
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
7 C regulars in CGY
The all-team median is 7. CGY’s farm system ranks #4 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Tonight
CGY do not play today
League schedule for 2026-09-29; next league date 2026-09-30.
Latest move: The Calgary Flames assigned F Rory Kerins to the minors. (2026-09-25).
White noise · as of 2026-09-29 · social 2026-09-29
Rory Kerins is in the middle of the pack for attention (34th percentile); attention this week is 3.25× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: 2 posts named him this week on Bluesky · 16 likes, reposts and replies · no baseline yet, it needs a week of readings.
Contract · CGY
Cap hit not published
Term not published. Unknown
Career arc · era-adjusted points per 82 games
Rory Kerins, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (80% band), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: quantile regression (10th/50th/90th) of qualifying seasons on an age spline, weighted for players who drop out.
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected 0 NHL hours through his age-25 season (80% band 0 to 26). He logged 2 hours, between the median and the 90th percentile. The model was applied to his draft class without being fitted or tested on it.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 22 | 5 | 62.1 | −0.9 to 85.9 |
| 2025-26 | 23 | 4 | 0.0 | 9.5 to 97.3 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-09-29
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 20 to 23
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 15 GTHL U16 0.96 → age 16 OHL 0.40 → age 17 OHL 0.92 → age 19 OHL 1.76 → age 20 ECHL 0.97 → age 21 AHL 0.59 → age 22 AHL 0.97 → age 23 AHL 1.02
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Victor OlofssonL · matched at ages 20, 21, 22, 23 | 0.03 | age 24 NHL 0.78 → age 25 NHL 0.57 → age 26 NHL 0.68 → age 27 NHL 0.53 → age 28 NHL 0.29 |
| Dmitri VoronkovL · matched at ages 20, 21, 22, 23 | 0.04 | age 24 NHL 0.64 → age 25 NHL 0.51 |
| Miles WoodL · matched at ages 20, 21, 22, 23 | 0.04 | age 24 NHL 0.34 → age 25 NHL 0.46 → age 27 NHL 0.35 → age 28 NHL 0.35 → age 29 NHL 0.22 |
| Casey MittelstadtC · matched at ages 20, 21, 22, 23 | 0.05 | age 24 NHL 0.72 → age 25 NHL 0.76 → age 26 NHL 0.54 → age 27 NHL 0.59 |
| Ryan HartmanR · matched at ages 20, 21, 22, 23 | 0.05 | age 24 NHL 0.31 → age 25 NHL 0.29 → age 26 NHL 0.43 → age 27 NHL 0.79 → age 28 NHL 0.63 |
| Alex BelzileR · matched at ages 20, 21, 23 | 0.05 | age 24 AHL 0.18 → age 25 AHL 0.12 → age 26 AHL 0.25 → age 27 AHL 0.33 → age 28 AHL 0.32 |
| Cole GuttmanC · matched at ages 20, 21, 22, 23 | 0.06 | age 24 NHL 0.30 → age 25 AHL 0.37 → age 26 AHL 0.36 |
| Semyon Der-ArguchintsevC · matched at ages 20, 21, 22, 23 | 0.06 | age 24 KHL 0.39 → age 25 KHL 0.54 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Roster moves · as of 2026-09-28
Latest club announcements
Waivers, claims, injured reserve, the minors and signings as the club announced them (Sportradar NHL API v7, league transfers feed; licensed feed (30-day trial)). No cause is read into an injured-reserve placement.
2026-09-25 · sent to the minors · The Calgary Flames assigned F Rory Kerins to the minors.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.