Returning regular · 2025-26
Lucas Mercuri
Tampa Bay Lightning · C · — shot · age 24 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- TBL
- Lane
- C
- Age
- 24
Production and deployment
Official split unavailable
The live official report did not return a matching player row. The dated roster identity and lane screen remain available; production stays unknown.
Organizational context
9 C regulars in TBL
The all-team median is 7. TBL’s farm system ranks #29 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Tonight
TBL do not play today
League schedule for 2026-09-29; next league date 2026-09-30.
Latest move: The Tampa Bay Lightning assigned F Lucas Mercuri to the minors. (2026-09-27).
White noise · as of 2026-09-29 · social 2026-09-29
Lucas Mercuri is in the middle of the pack for attention (45th percentile)
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: 5 posts named him this week on Bluesky · 14 likes, reposts and replies · no baseline yet, it needs a week of readings.
Latest from the league: 3 Takeaways: Bolts end prospect showcase with win over Carolina (2026-09-15)
Contract
No contract for this player has been sourced yet. CapOrCup does not estimate it.
Career arc · era-adjusted points per 82 games
null, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (80% band), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected 0 NHL hours through his age-25 season (80% band 0 to 26). He logged 0 hours, between the median and the 90th percentile. The model was applied to his draft class without being fitted or tested on it.
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-09-29
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 21 to 24
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 14 QM15AAA 1.06 → age 15 QMAAA 0.40 → age 16 QMAAA 1.02 → age 17 USHS-Prep 1.50 → age 18 USHS-Prep 1.46 → age 19 USHL 0.80 → age 20 NCAA 0.42 → age 21 NCAA 0.40 → age 22 NCAA 0.68 → age 23 NCAA 0.78 → age 24 AHL 0.39
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Frederick GaudreauC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.03 | age 25 NHL 0.07 → age 26 AHL 0.30 → age 27 NHL 0.53 → age 28 NHL 0.58 → age 29 NHL 0.46 |
| Stefan NoesenR · matched at ages 22, 23, 24 | 0.04 | age 25 NHL 0.38 → age 26 NHL 0.20 → age 27 NHL 0.23 → age 28 AHL 0.23 → age 29 AHL 0.55 |
| Sam MortonC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.04 | age 25 AHL 0.29 → age 26 AHL 0.25 |
| Yakov TreninC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.04 | age 25 NHL 0.30 → age 26 NHL 0.31 → age 27 NHL 0.23 → age 28 NHL 0.20 → age 29 NHL 0.28 |
| Cole ReinhardtL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.05 | age 25 NHL 0.12 → age 26 NHL 0.16 |
| Max JonesL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23 | 0.05 | age 25 NHL 0.28 → age 26 NHL 0.29 → age 27 NHL 0.10 → age 28 NHL 0.24 |
| Justin KirklandC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.05 | age 25 AHL 0.33 → age 26 AHL 0.26 → age 27 AHL 0.32 → age 28 NHL 0.38 → age 29 NHL 0.10 |
| Joel KivirantaL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.05 | age 25 NHL 0.42 → age 26 NHL 0.13 → age 27 NHL 0.13 → age 28 NHL 0.16 → age 29 NHL 0.29 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Roster moves · as of 2026-09-28
Latest club announcements
Waivers, claims, injured reserve, the minors and signings as the club announced them (Sportradar NHL API v7, league transfers feed; licensed feed (30-day trial)). No cause is read into an injured-reserve placement.
2026-09-27 · sent to the minors · The Tampa Bay Lightning assigned F Lucas Mercuri to the minors.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.
No NHL EDGE data for this player in 2025-26 (usually fewer NHL games, or a goalie).