Returning regular · 2025-26
Luca Cagnoni
San Jose Sharks · LD · — shot · age 21 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- SJS
- Lane
- LD
- Age
- 21
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
3 LD regulars in SJS
The all-team median is 4. SJS’s farm system ranks #1 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Tonight
SJS do not play today
League schedule for 2026-09-29; next league date 2026-09-30.
Nothing listed against him.
White noise · as of 2026-09-29 · social 2026-09-29
Luca Cagnoni is talked about more than most (86th percentile); attention this week is 5.21× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: 18 posts named him this week on Bluesky · 19 likes, reposts and replies · no baseline yet, it needs a week of readings.
Contract · SJS
Cap hit not published
Term not published. Unknown
From the video · model judgement
What the condensed games showed
Read from the league's free condensed games (1 game so far): entries, exits, battles and turnovers the model could see and attribute to his jersey number. A condensed game is a sample of the game, so these are observations, not season counts.
Career arc · era-adjusted points per 82 games
Luca Cagnoni, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (80% band), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: quantile regression (10th/50th/90th) of qualifying seasons on an age spline, weighted for players who drop out.
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected 0 NHL hours through his age-25 season (80% band 0 to 38). He logged 3 hours, between the median and the 90th percentile. The model was applied to his draft class without being fitted or tested on it.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 20 | 6 | 25.9 | −2.4 to 54.0 |
| 2025-26 | 21 | 3 | 0.0 | −7.9 to 65.7 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-09-29
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 18 to 21
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 14 CSSHL U15 0.73 → age 15 CSSHL U16 0.85 → age 16 WHL 0.30 → age 17 WHL 0.57 → age 18 WHL 0.95 → age 19 WHL 1.39 → age 20 AHL 0.81 → age 21 AHL 0.64
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas CormierD · matched at ages 18, 19, 20, 21 | 0.03 | age 22 AHL 0.16 → age 23 AHL 0.22 → age 24 AHL 0.44 |
| Seth JonesD · matched at ages 18, 19, 20, 21 | 0.04 | age 22 NHL 0.56 → age 23 NHL 0.73 → age 24 NHL 0.61 → age 25 NHL 0.54 → age 26 NHL 0.50 |
| Conor TimminsD · matched at ages 18, 19, 21 | 0.04 | age 22 NHL 0.23 → age 24 NHL 0.56 → age 25 NHL 0.40 → age 26 NHL 0.16 → age 27 NHL 0.20 |
| Scott MorrowD · matched at ages 18, 19, 20, 21 | 0.04 | age 22 NHL 0.43 → age 23 NHL 0.21 |
| Reilly WalshD · matched at ages 18, 19, 20, 21 | 0.05 | age 22 AHL 0.28 → age 23 AHL 0.26 → age 24 AHL 0.21 → age 25 AHL 0.21 → age 26 KHL 0.52 |
| Shea TheodoreD · matched at ages 18, 19, 20, 21 | 0.05 | age 22 NHL 0.47 → age 23 NHL 0.47 → age 24 NHL 0.65 → age 25 NHL 0.79 → age 26 NHL 0.67 |
| Olli MaattaD · matched at ages 18, 19, 20, 21 | 0.06 | age 22 NHL 0.13 → age 23 NHL 0.35 → age 24 NHL 0.23 → age 25 NHL 0.26 → age 26 NHL 0.10 |
| Josh MahuraD · matched at ages 18, 19, 20, 21 | 0.06 | age 22 NHL 0.31 → age 23 NHL 0.18 → age 24 NHL 0.20 → age 25 NHL 0.30 → age 26 NHL 0.14 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
Loading…
Club listings · licensed feeds
What the club lists him as
An injury listing and a projected slot are the club's statements relayed by a licensed feed, shown with their dates. CapOrCup infers nothing from them.
Projected slot · pair 3 right defence, first power-play unit (SJS depth chart as of 2026-09-28; Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts)
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.