Returning regular · 2025-26
Benjamin Rautiainen
Tampa Bay Lightning · C · — shot · age 21 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- TBL
- Lane
- C
- Age
- 21
Production and deployment
Official split unavailable
The live official report did not return a matching player row. The dated roster identity and lane screen remain available; production stays unknown.
Organizational context
9 C regulars in TBL
The all-team median is 7. TBL’s farm system ranks #29 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Tonight
TBL do not play today
League schedule for 2026-09-29; next league date 2026-09-30.
Latest move: The Tampa Bay Lightning assigned F Benjamin Rautiainen to the minors. (2026-09-28).
White noise · as of 2026-09-29 · social 2026-09-29
Benjamin Rautiainen is talked about more than most (75th percentile); attention this week is 8.29× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: 10 posts named him this week on Bluesky · 22 likes, reposts and replies · no baseline yet, it needs a week of readings.
Contract · TBL
Cap hit not published
2026–27 through 2028–29. Certified
From the video · model judgement
What the condensed games showed
Read from the league's free condensed games (1 game so far): entries, exits, battles and turnovers the model could see and attribute to his jersey number. A condensed game is a sample of the game, so these are observations, not season counts.
Career arc · era-adjusted points per 82 games
null, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (80% band), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected 0 NHL hours through his age-25 season (80% band 0 to 64). He logged 0 hours, between the median and the 90th percentile. The model was applied to his draft class without being fitted or tested on it.
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-09-29
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 17 to 20
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 15 U16 SM-sarja 2.83 → age 16 U20 SM-sarja 0.65 → age 17 U20 SM-sarja 0.83 → age 18 U20 SM-sarja 1.72 → age 19 Liiga 0.66 → age 20 Liiga 1.30
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Jack QuinnR · matched at ages 17, 18, 19, 20 | 0.04 | age 21 NHL 0.49 → age 22 NHL 0.70 → age 23 NHL 0.53 → age 24 NHL 0.62 |
| Anthony CirelliC · matched at ages 17, 18, 19, 20 | 0.05 | age 21 NHL 0.48 → age 22 NHL 0.65 → age 23 NHL 0.44 → age 24 NHL 0.57 → age 25 NHL 0.50 |
| Rutger McGroartyR · matched at ages 17, 18, 19, 20 | 0.05 | age 21 AHL 0.30 → age 22 NHL 0.25 |
| Jackson BlakeR · matched at ages 17, 18, 19, 20 | 0.06 | age 21 NHL 0.42 → age 22 NHL 0.65 |
| Shane PintoC · matched at ages 17, 18, 19, 20 | 0.06 | age 22 NHL 0.43 → age 23 NHL 0.66 → age 24 NHL 0.53 → age 25 NHL 0.64 |
| Kirby DachC · matched at ages 17, 18, 19, 20 | 0.06 | age 21 NHL 0.37 → age 22 NHL 0.66 → age 24 NHL 0.39 → age 25 NHL 0.41 |
| Cutter GauthierL · matched at ages 17, 18, 19, 20 | 0.06 | age 21 NHL 0.54 → age 22 NHL 0.91 |
| Mavrik BourqueC · matched at ages 17, 18, 19, 20 | 0.06 | age 21 AHL 0.30 → age 22 AHL 0.49 → age 23 NHL 0.34 → age 24 NHL 0.50 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Roster moves · as of 2026-09-28
Latest club announcements
Waivers, claims, injured reserve, the minors and signings as the club announced them (Sportradar NHL API v7, league transfers feed; licensed feed (30-day trial)). No cause is read into an injured-reserve placement.
2026-09-28 · sent to the minors · The Tampa Bay Lightning assigned F Benjamin Rautiainen to the minors.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.
No NHL EDGE data for this player in 2025-26 (usually fewer NHL games, or a goalie).