Final (OT) · All games

TOR 3 – 4 MTL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens. Final. The model's pre-game price is kept below as recorded.

Model
MTL 63%
Expected score
2.7 – 3.4
Market
—
Venue
Centre Bell
Pre-game price

What the model says

Lineups not yet published: each club's usual lineup assumed. Starting goalie not confirmed: goaltending held at league average.

MTL win63%TOR 38%
FinishesMTL reg 50% · OT/SO 12%TOR reg 27% · OT/SO 11%
Most likely finalsTOR 2–3 MTL (7%) · TOR 1–4 MTL (6%) · TOR 3–4 MTL (6%)
Club ratings (Elo)MTL 1588 · TOR 1394by results; last season's, until this one has enough games

Source: CapOrCup game model (derived from club ratings, rest and starters)

Starters · depth chart 2026-09-28

In goal

The league names no starter before puck drop. First on each club's depth chart, from the licensed feed, is the expected starter.

TOR · expected (depth chart)

Sergei Bobrovsky

Goalie rating 1490 (below the league middle) · -13.0 saved above expected on 1948 shots last season
MTL · expected (depth chart)

Jakub Dobes

Goalie rating 1561 (top tenth of the league) · +23.4 saved above expected on 1817 shots last season
Projected lineups · Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts · as of 2026-09-28

Expected lines

What each club intends per the feed's depth chart, with each forward's shooter rating (Elo, against the goalies faced last season). A listing is the club's statement, not a game sheet.

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

Head coach Jim Hiller

L1 Matthew Knies (below the league middle) · Auston Matthews (below the league middle) · Jack Roslovic (above the league middle)

L2 Gavin McKenna · John Tavares (below the league middle) · William Nylander (top tenth of the league)

L3 Bo Groulx · Colton Sissons (below the league middle) · Easton Cowan (above the league middle)

D1 Morgan Rielly (above the league middle) · Darren Raddysh (top tenth of the league)

D2 Jake McCabe (above the league middle) · Chris Tanev

PP1 Jack Roslovic (above the league middle) · John Tavares (below the league middle) · William Nylander (top tenth of the league) · Darren Raddysh (top tenth of the league) · Auston Matthews (below the league middle)

MTL

Montréal Canadiens

Head coach Martin St. Louis

L1 Cole Caufield (top tenth of the league) · Nick Suzuki (above the league middle) · Chris Kreider (below the league middle)

L2 Juraj Slafkovský (above the league middle) · Oliver Kapanen (above the league middle) · Ivan Demidov (above the league middle)

L3 Alex Newhook (top tenth of the league) · Phillip Danault (bottom tenth of the league) · Josh Anderson (below the league middle)

D1 Mike Matheson (above the league middle) · Noah Dobson (above the league middle)

D2 Jayden Struble · Lane Hutson (above the league middle)

PP1 Juraj Slafkovský (above the league middle) · Nick Suzuki (above the league middle) · Ivan Demidov (above the league middle) · Cole Caufield (top tenth of the league) · Lane Hutson (above the league middle)

Injury listings · as of 2026-09-29

Who the clubs list as out

Club-announced listings relayed by the licensed feed. No cause is inferred; Day To Day players are shown but not counted as out.

TOR · 2 out

Toronto Maple Leafs

Elvis Merzlikins (G): Out (shoulder), listed since 2026-08-20, expected back 2026-11-30

Max Domi (C): Out (back), listed since 2026-09-11, expected back 2026-11-03

MTL · 1 out

Montréal Canadiens

Kaiden Guhle (D): Out (adductor), listed since 2026-09-16, expected back 2026-10-17

Goals · the league's own clips

7 goals

Each goal links to the league's clip on its own site. Nothing is rehosted.

MTL · P1 04:27 · J. Slafkovský (L. Mittelstadt, E. Samson) · clip

MTL · P1 12:04 · I. Demidov (L. Hutson) · PP · clip

TOR · P2 03:56 · H. Rybinski (R. Tverberg, B. Brisson) · PP · clip

TOR · P2 08:32 · C. Sissons (O. Ekman-Larsson, E. Cowan) · PP · clip

TOR · P2 16:21 · M. Johnstone (H. Rybinski, M. Pezzetta) · clip

MTL · P3 02:43 · L. Hutson (J. Davidson, A. Belzile) · clip

MTL · P4 04:22 · C. Caufield (L. Hutson, A. Carrier) · clip

Replay review once the condensed game has been read · Ledger