Jayden Struble
Montréal Canadiens · LD · shoots L · 25 · RFA at expiry
Contract, value & projections
- Paid
- 1.4% of the cap · through 2026–27 · the contract
- Worth
- 2.2% of the cap · Cup: paid under the market
- Next
- Not on file (not projected yet)
- Drive (3 seasons)
- points of chance share added with him on · what this is#142Jayden Struble Drive rank: 80% rank range 59 to 344 of 678 Likely a top-200 skater; anywhere from 59th to 344th.
Tonight MTL do not play · next league date 2026-10-29 · latest move: The Montreal Canadiens traded D Jayden Struble to the Nashville Predators. (2026-10-09)
Production and deployment
Official split unavailable
The live official report did not return a matching player row. The dated roster identity and lane screen remain available; production stays unknown.
Organizational context
LD regulars in MTL
The all-team median is . MTL’s farm system sits #5 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
White noise · as of 2026-10-18 · social 2026-10-18
Jayden Struble is among the most talked-about (96th percentile); attention this week is 7.85× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: .
Latest from the league: Struble traded to Predators by Canadiens for draft pick (2026-10-09) · Canadiens acquire a second-round pick in 2027 from the Nashville Predators (2026-10-09) · Preds Official Podcast: Introducing Jayden Struble (2026-10-15)
Contract · MTL
cap hit
2025–26 through 2026–27 · RFA at expiry. Certified
Cap signal › Cheaper than his position's median cost per point, but his five-on-five rate and penalty-kill use are below the line.
Measures · 2025–26 · 80% rank ranges
Where Jayden Struble ranks, and how sure we are
Each rank is the 10th to 90th percentile of his place when every skater's value is redrawn 1,000 times from his own band. One season rarely separates a player from the dozens around him.
- #142#59 to #344 of 678
Likely a top-200 skater; anywhere from 59th to 344th.
In fewer than 1 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
18 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #375#155 to #570 of 678
Likely a top-400 skater; anywhere from 155th to 570th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
9 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #278#131 to #532 of 744
Likely a top-400 skater; anywhere from 131st to 532nd.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
5 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #305#134 to #533 of 678
Likely a top-400 skater; anywhere from 134th to 533rd.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
11 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #433#162 to #591 of 678
Likely a top-400 skater; anywhere from 162nd to 591st.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
8 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC ). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Advanced scoring · 2025-26
Goals, assists and plus/minus, weighted by what they changed
Every goal counts the win probability it added, scaled so the average goal is 1.0: a late tying goal counts several, a goal at 6-1 or into an empty net late counts little. Plus/minus also credits the players on the ice when the goal's sequence began.
From the video · model judgement
What the condensed games showed
Read from the league's free condensed games ( game so far): entries, exits, battles and turnovers the model could see and attribute to his jersey number. A condensed game is a sample of the game, so these are observations, not season counts.
Most often up against: .
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Career arc ·
Jayden Struble, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: .
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected through his age-25 season (80% band ). He logged , between the median and the 90th percentile. The model was applied to his draft class without being fitted or tested on it.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | ||||
| 2024-25 | ||||
| 2025-26 | ||||
| 2026-27 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-10-18
Club listings · licensed feeds
What the club lists him as
An injury listing and a projected slot are the club's statements relayed by a licensed feed, shown with their dates. CapOrCup infers nothing from them.
Projected slot · (NSH depth chart as of 2026-10-12; Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts)
Roster moves · as of 2026-10-17
Latest club announcements
Waivers, claims, injured reserve, the minors and signings as the club announced them (Sportradar NHL API v7, league transfers feed; licensed feed (30-day trial)). No cause is read into an injured-reserve placement.
2026-10-09 · traded · The Montreal Canadiens traded D Jayden Struble to the Nashville Predators.
Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: points per 60 in the ten games before, in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far:
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Brian DumoulinD · matched at ages | ||
| Jonas SiegenthalerD · matched at ages | ||
| Calle RosenD · matched at ages | ||
| Joel EdmundsonD · matched at ages | ||
| Uvis BalinskisD · matched at ages | ||
| MacKenzie WeegarD · matched at ages | ||
| Mikey AndersonD · matched at ages | ||
| Mattias SamuelssonD · matched at ages |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Fit components (description)
Jayden Struble: role, system and coach, as measured
What the shift charts say about Jayden Struble's role and his club's game, and what the rules allow. No fit number is shown: fit: not yet validated.
Rules that travel with him: blocked. Club-specific rules (50 contracts, 23-man roster, the two front offices) are on each team's Moves tab.
- Trade protection: Not on file. clause not confirmed. CBA Art. 11.8(a)
- Waiver exemption: blocked. signed at 21: past 3 seasons or 80 NHL games (now season 5, 171 games). CBA Art. 13.4
as of 2026-04-16