CapOrCup measure · 2025–26
Drive-offence
Chances he adds at the offensive end, per 60 minutes, separated from linemates and usage. 0 is an average regular.
- Players ranked
- 678
- Sure of a top-10 place
- 0
- Measured to
- 2026-10-18
The top five, in words
How sure we are, said plainly
Each line is his 80% rank range from 1,000 resamples of every player's band. The dots are twenty equally likely outcomes for his value; the quote button gives a sentence the range supports.
- Nathan MacKinnon#1#1 to #13 of 678
Likely a top-3 skater; anywhere from 1st to 13th.
In 88 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Brandon Hagel#2#1 to #16 of 678
Likely a top-3 skater; anywhere from 1st to 16th.
In 84 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Connor McDavid#3#2 to #38 of 678
Likely a top-10 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 38th.
In 63 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Nikita Kucherov#4#2 to #53 of 678
Likely a top-15 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 53rd.
In 49 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Brady Tkachuk#5#3 to #87 of 678
Likely a top-20 skater; anywhere from 3rd to 87th.
In 32 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Top 50 of 678
Who leads, and how sure we are
Each player shows his value and his 80% rank range: the 10th to 90th percentile of his rank when every player's value is redrawn from his own band 1,000 times. A wide range means the season has not yet separated him from the players around him.
| Rank | Player | Drive-offence xG/60 | Could rank | 80% band | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Nathan MacKinnon Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 1 to 13 of 678 | Nathan MacKinnon | +0.46 | #1 to #13 of 678 | +0.33 to +0.59 | |
| #2Brandon Hagel Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 1 to 16 of 678 | Brandon Hagel | +0.44 | #1 to #16 of 678 | +0.32 to +0.57 | |
| #3Connor McDavid Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 2 to 38 of 678 | Connor McDavid | +0.37 | #2 to #38 of 678 | +0.25 to +0.50 | |
| #4Nikita Kucherov Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 2 to 53 of 678 | Nikita Kucherov | +0.34 | #2 to #53 of 678 | +0.22 to +0.47 | |
| #5Brady Tkachuk Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 3 to 87 of 678 | Brady Tkachuk | +0.31 | #3 to #87 of 678 | +0.18 to +0.44 | |
| #6Jason Robertson Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 4 to 86 of 678 | Jason Robertson | +0.30 | #4 to #86 of 678 | +0.18 to +0.43 | |
| #7Lane Hutson Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 4 to 83 of 678 | Lane Hutson | +0.30 | #4 to #83 of 678 | +0.19 to +0.42 | |
| #8Tommy Novak Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 5 to 106 of 678 | Tommy Novak | +0.28 | #5 to #106 of 678 | +0.16 to +0.40 | |
| #9Andrei Svechnikov Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 4 to 120 of 678 | Andrei Svechnikov | +0.28 | #4 to #120 of 678 | +0.15 to +0.41 | |
| #10Jordan Kyrou Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 5 to 128 of 678 | Jordan Kyrou | +0.27 | #5 to #128 of 678 | +0.14 to +0.39 | |
| #11Mattias Ekholm Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 6 to 124 of 678 | Mattias Ekholm | +0.27 | #6 to #124 of 678 | +0.14 to +0.39 | |
| #12Evan Bouchard Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 6 to 130 of 678 | Evan Bouchard | +0.26 | #6 to #130 of 678 | +0.13 to +0.39 | |
| #13Jesper Bratt Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 121 of 678 | Jesper Bratt | +0.26 | #7 to #121 of 678 | +0.14 to +0.38 | |
| #14Jordan Spence Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 131 of 678 | Jordan Spence | +0.25 | #7 to #131 of 678 | +0.13 to +0.37 | |
| #15Quinn Hughes Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 8 to 119 of 678 | Quinn Hughes | +0.25 | #8 to #119 of 678 | +0.14 to +0.36 | |
| #16Mathew Barzal Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 144 of 678 | Mathew Barzal | +0.25 | #7 to #144 of 678 | +0.13 to +0.37 | |
| #17Luke Evangelista Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 9 to 142 of 678 | Luke Evangelista | +0.25 | #9 to #142 of 678 | +0.13 to +0.37 | |
| #18Anders Lee Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 138 of 678 | Anders Lee | +0.25 | #7 to #138 of 678 | +0.12 to +0.37 | |
| #19Sebastian Aho Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 179 of 678 | Sebastian Aho | +0.24 | #7 to #179 of 678 | +0.11 to +0.37 | |
| #20Zach Werenski Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 10 to 154 of 678 | Zach Werenski | +0.24 | #10 to #154 of 678 | +0.12 to +0.35 | |
| #21Brock Nelson Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 9 to 171 of 678 | Brock Nelson | +0.23 | #9 to #171 of 678 | +0.11 to +0.36 | |
| #22Jack Eichel Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 178 of 678 | Jack Eichel | +0.23 | #7 to #178 of 678 | +0.10 to +0.36 | |
| #23Adam Fox Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 10 to 191 of 678 | Adam Fox | +0.23 | #10 to #191 of 678 | +0.10 to +0.36 | |
| #24Matthew Schaefer Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 10 to 147 of 678 | Matthew Schaefer | +0.23 | #10 to #147 of 678 | +0.11 to +0.34 | |
| #25Josh Doan Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 12 to 175 of 678 | Josh Doan | +0.22 | #12 to #175 of 678 | +0.10 to +0.35 | |
| #26John Carlson Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 11 to 164 of 678 | John Carlson | +0.22 | #11 to #164 of 678 | +0.11 to +0.34 | |
| #27Logan Stankoven Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 8 to 191 of 678 | Logan Stankoven | +0.22 | #8 to #191 of 678 | +0.09 to +0.35 | |
| #28Cole Caufield Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 9 to 196 of 678 | Cole Caufield | +0.22 | #9 to #196 of 678 | +0.09 to +0.35 | |
| #29Trevor Zegras Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 11 to 189 of 678 | Trevor Zegras | +0.22 | #11 to #189 of 678 | +0.09 to +0.34 | |
| #30Zach Hyman Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 11 to 203 of 678 | Zach Hyman | +0.22 | #11 to #203 of 678 | +0.09 to +0.35 | |
| #31Ross Colton Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 12 to 211 of 678 | Ross Colton | +0.21 | #12 to #211 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.34 | |
| #32Devon Toews Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 12 to 185 of 678 | Devon Toews | +0.21 | #12 to #185 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.33 | |
| #33Clayton Keller Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 13 to 221 of 678 | Clayton Keller | +0.20 | #13 to #221 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.33 | |
| #34Robert Thomas Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 14 to 220 of 678 | Robert Thomas | +0.20 | #14 to #220 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.33 | |
| #35Jackson Blake Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 13 to 212 of 678 | Jackson Blake | +0.20 | #13 to #212 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.33 | |
| #36Beckett Sennecke Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 200 of 678 | Beckett Sennecke | +0.20 | #15 to #200 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.32 | |
| #37Rasmus Dahlin Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 16 to 212 of 678 | Rasmus Dahlin | +0.20 | #16 to #212 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.32 | |
| #38Dylan Cozens Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 220 of 678 | Dylan Cozens | +0.19 | #15 to #220 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.32 | |
| #39Michael Carcone Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 18 to 214 of 678 | Michael Carcone | +0.19 | #18 to #214 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.32 | |
| #40Taylor Hall Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 222 of 678 | Taylor Hall | +0.19 | #15 to #222 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.32 | |
| #41Sam Malinski Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 18 to 222 of 678 | Sam Malinski | +0.19 | #18 to #222 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.31 | |
| #42Shayne Gostisbehere Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 19 to 244 of 678 | Shayne Gostisbehere | +0.19 | #19 to #244 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.31 | |
| #43Zach Benson Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 18 to 229 of 678 | Zach Benson | +0.19 | #18 to #229 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.31 | |
| #44Bo Horvat Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 231 of 678 | Bo Horvat | +0.19 | #15 to #231 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.31 | |
| #45Wyatt Johnston Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 19 to 240 of 678 | Wyatt Johnston | +0.18 | #19 to #240 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.31 | |
| #46Artturi Lehkonen Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 243 of 678 | Artturi Lehkonen | +0.18 | #15 to #243 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.31 | |
| #47Jakob Chychrun Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 21 to 224 of 678 | Jakob Chychrun | +0.18 | #21 to #224 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.30 | |
| #48Damon Severson Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 20 to 228 of 678 | Damon Severson | +0.18 | #20 to #228 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.30 | |
| #49Alex DeBrincat Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 18 to 234 of 678 | Alex DeBrincat | +0.18 | #18 to #234 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.30 | |
| #50Leo Carlsson Drive-offence rank: 80% rank range 17 to 256 of 678 | Leo Carlsson | +0.17 | #17 to #256 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.30 |
Every ranked player
The spread
Each dot is one player with at least 300 minutes at 5-on-5. The dashed line is zero, the average regular.
Drive-offence
Definition. Chances created per 60 against the club's rate without him.
Inputs. shifts (measured), shots (measured), xg-model (derived). Built from. Shift charts and the expected-goals model.
Reliability.
- Split-half r
- Year over year r
- Stabilization point
- · — where the number becomes half signal
- Players
Validity.
- pairs
- n
- nextSeason
- discriminant
- baselines
- verdict
Uncertainty.
- method
- resamples
- players
- regulars
- medianWidth95
- medianWidth80
- leagueSpreadSd
- topTenProbabilityAvailable
- note
Shrinkage.
Bias ledger.
- Slices tested
- Survive FDR
Sensitivity.
Adjustments.
- scoreVenue
Depends on. expected goals (trained 2023-24, 2024-25, tested 2025-26, AUC ) · model card
Limits. Not score-and-venue adjusted on the site today; the adjusted value is on the card.
Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.