Returning regular · 2025-26

Brady Tkachuk

Florida Panthers · LW · L shot · age 27 at the dated snapshot.

Team: FLA
Lane: LW
Age: 27

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games60

Goals22

Assists37

Points59

Even strength38all even-strength points

Power play20

Short handed1

Empty net5

5v5 points / 602.474

Average TOI16:58

PP TOI3:17

PK TOI0:04

Organizational context

6 LW regulars in FLA

The all-team median is 4. FLA’s farm system ranks #30 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots306

Expected goals29.59.6% per shot

Goals22

Finishing−7.5goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality64%5.55 expected goals for and 3.13 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)+14 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)3.91 xG25 primary assists; 0.156 expected goals per pass on average, 0.242 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence+2.79expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-0.42expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts37%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)strong / averageteammates +4.8, opponents -0.1 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)729 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for99 for, 87 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal0his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 16.2 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 3his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 19 games

LinematesDylan Cozens, Tim Stützleshared 52% and 40% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup57% vs first lines57% against the other club's first line (usual)

Shutdown (drive, defence, deployment removed)-0.45offence the same way +2.83; zone starts and opponent quality removed by a league-wide fit

Real points535 empty-net points left out · 22 goals, 25 primary and 11 secondary assists · 20 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 23 to 26

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons8 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)1.16median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 14 T1EBHL 1.27 → age 15 T1EHL U16 1.43 → age 16 USHL 0.25 → age 17 USHL 0.96 → age 18 NCAA 0.78 → age 19 NHL 0.63 → age 20 NHL 0.62 → age 21 NHL 0.64 → age 22 NHL 0.85 → age 23 NHL 1.01 → age 24 NHL 0.91 → age 25 NHL 0.76 → age 26 NHL 0.98

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Jack EichelC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.07	age 27 NHL 1.08 → age 28 NHL 1.22 → age 29 NHL 1.22
Tyler SeguinC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.09	age 27 NHL 0.98 → age 28 NHL 0.72 → age 30 NHL 0.60 → age 31 NHL 0.66 → age 32 NHL 0.77
Alex DeBrincatR · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.09	age 27 NHL 0.85 → age 28 NHL 1.04
Artemi PanarinL · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.10	age 27 NHL 1.10 → age 28 NHL 1.38 → age 29 NHL 1.38 → age 30 NHL 1.28 → age 31 NHL 1.12
Brayden PointC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.11	age 27 NHL 1.16 → age 28 NHL 1.11 → age 29 NHL 1.06 → age 30 NHL 0.79
Filip ForsbergL · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.11	age 27 NHL 1.22 → age 28 NHL 0.84 → age 29 NHL 1.15 → age 30 NHL 0.93 → age 31 NHL 0.92
Sebastian AhoC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.12	age 27 NHL 0.94 → age 28 NHL 1.01
Mathew BarzalC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.13	age 27 NHL 0.67 → age 28 NHL 0.89

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

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