CapOrCup measure · 2025–26
Drive-defence
Chances he takes away at his own end, per 60 minutes, separated from linemates and usage. Above 0 is better than an average regular.
- Players ranked
- 678
- Sure of a top-10 place
- 0
- Measured to
- 2026-10-18
The top five, in words
How sure we are, said plainly
Each line is his 80% rank range from 1,000 resamples of every player's band. The dots are twenty equally likely outcomes for his value; the quote button gives a sentence the range supports.
- Moritz Seider#1#1 to #56 of 678
Likely a top-10 skater; anywhere from 1st to 56th.
In 55 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Danton Heinen#2#2 to #138 of 678
Likely a top-30 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 138th.
In 30 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Kailer Yamamoto#3#4 to #179 of 678
Likely a top-40 skater; anywhere from 4th to 179th.
In 23 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Pontus Holmberg#4#5 to #193 of 678
Likely a top-40 skater; anywhere from 5th to 193rd.
In 21 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Jack Drury#5#4 to #191 of 678
Likely a top-50 skater; anywhere from 4th to 191st.
In 19 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Top 50 of 678
Who leads, and how sure we are
Each player shows his value and his 80% rank range: the 10th to 90th percentile of his rank when every player's value is redrawn from his own band 1,000 times. A wide range means the season has not yet separated him from the players around him.
| Rank | Player | Drive-defence xG/60 | Could rank | 80% band | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Moritz Seider Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 1 to 56 of 678 | Moritz Seider | +0.31 | #1 to #56 of 678 | +0.18 to +0.43 | |
| #2Danton Heinen Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 2 to 138 of 678 | Danton Heinen | +0.24 | #2 to #138 of 678 | +0.10 to +0.37 | |
| #3Kailer Yamamoto Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 4 to 179 of 678 | Kailer Yamamoto | +0.21 | #4 to #179 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.34 | |
| #4Pontus Holmberg Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 5 to 193 of 678 | Pontus Holmberg | +0.21 | #5 to #193 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.34 | |
| #5Jack Drury Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 4 to 191 of 678 | Jack Drury | +0.21 | #4 to #191 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.33 | |
| #6Jonas Brodin Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 5 to 184 of 678 | Jonas Brodin | +0.21 | #5 to #184 of 678 | +0.09 to +0.33 | |
| #7Sam Malinski Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 5 to 177 of 678 | Sam Malinski | +0.21 | #5 to #177 of 678 | +0.09 to +0.33 | |
| #8Vincent Desharnais Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 5 to 191 of 678 | Vincent Desharnais | +0.20 | #5 to #191 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.33 | |
| #98474102 Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 5 to 177 of 678 | 8474102 | +0.20 | #5 to #177 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.33 | |
| #10Connor Murphy Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 210 of 678 | Connor Murphy | +0.20 | #7 to #210 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.32 | |
| #11Oskar Bäck Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 5 to 226 of 678 | Oskar Bäck | +0.19 | #5 to #226 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.32 | |
| #12Adam Pelech Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 200 of 678 | Adam Pelech | +0.19 | #7 to #200 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.31 | |
| #13Dylan Samberg Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 208 of 678 | Dylan Samberg | +0.19 | #7 to #208 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.31 | |
| #14Casey Cizikas Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 255 of 678 | Casey Cizikas | +0.18 | #7 to #255 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.32 | |
| #15Tom Wilson Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 9 to 239 of 678 | Tom Wilson | +0.18 | #9 to #239 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.31 | |
| #16Kaedan Korczak Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 8 to 222 of 678 | Kaedan Korczak | +0.18 | #8 to #222 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.30 | |
| #17Gage Goncalves Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 8 to 254 of 678 | Gage Goncalves | +0.18 | #8 to #254 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.31 | |
| #18Jaccob Slavin Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 239 of 678 | Jaccob Slavin | +0.18 | #7 to #239 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.31 | |
| #19Esa Lindell Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 10 to 239 of 678 | Esa Lindell | +0.18 | #10 to #239 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.30 | |
| #20Jordan Kyrou Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 260 of 678 | Jordan Kyrou | +0.17 | #7 to #260 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.30 | |
| #21Noel Acciari Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 237 of 678 | Noel Acciari | +0.17 | #7 to #237 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.31 | |
| #22Garnet Hathaway Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 7 to 258 of 678 | Garnet Hathaway | +0.17 | #7 to #258 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.31 | |
| #23Drew Doughty Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 9 to 245 of 678 | Drew Doughty | +0.17 | #9 to #245 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.29 | |
| #24Arseny Gritsyuk Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 11 to 277 of 678 | Arseny Gritsyuk | +0.16 | #11 to #277 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.29 | |
| #25Barrett Hayton Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 10 to 256 of 678 | Barrett Hayton | +0.16 | #10 to #256 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.29 | |
| #26Brandon Duhaime Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 11 to 282 of 678 | Brandon Duhaime | +0.16 | #11 to #282 of 678 | +0.03 to +0.29 | |
| #27Nick Cousins Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 10 to 289 of 678 | Nick Cousins | +0.16 | #10 to #289 of 678 | +0.03 to +0.28 | |
| #28Mark Jankowski Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 11 to 292 of 678 | Mark Jankowski | +0.16 | #11 to #292 of 678 | +0.02 to +0.29 | |
| #29Claude Giroux Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 11 to 276 of 678 | Claude Giroux | +0.15 | #11 to #276 of 678 | +0.03 to +0.28 | |
| #30Jason Dickinson Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 11 to 285 of 678 | Jason Dickinson | +0.15 | #11 to #285 of 678 | +0.02 to +0.28 | |
| #31Damon Severson Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 16 to 269 of 678 | Damon Severson | +0.15 | #16 to #269 of 678 | +0.03 to +0.27 | |
| #32Scott Laughton Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 13 to 286 of 678 | Scott Laughton | +0.15 | #13 to #286 of 678 | +0.02 to +0.28 | |
| #33Mathieu Joseph Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 13 to 288 of 678 | Mathieu Joseph | +0.15 | #13 to #288 of 678 | +0.02 to +0.28 | |
| #34Blake Coleman Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 13 to 298 of 678 | Blake Coleman | +0.15 | #13 to #298 of 678 | +0.02 to +0.28 | |
| #35Adam Fox Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 332 of 678 | Adam Fox | +0.14 | #15 to #332 of 678 | +0.01 to +0.27 | |
| #36Isac Lundeström Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 313 of 678 | Isac Lundeström | +0.14 | #15 to #313 of 678 | +0.01 to +0.27 | |
| #37Eetu Luostarinen Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 313 of 678 | Eetu Luostarinen | +0.14 | #15 to #313 of 678 | +0.01 to +0.27 | |
| #38Jordan Spence Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 16 to 302 of 678 | Jordan Spence | +0.14 | #16 to #302 of 678 | +0.02 to +0.26 | |
| #39Mark Stone Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 18 to 338 of 678 | Mark Stone | +0.14 | #18 to #338 of 678 | +0.01 to +0.27 | |
| #40Marc Gatcomb Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 336 of 678 | Marc Gatcomb | +0.14 | #15 to #336 of 678 | 0.00 to +0.28 | |
| #41Nick Foligno Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 17 to 331 of 678 | Nick Foligno | +0.13 | #17 to #331 of 678 | +0.00 to +0.27 | |
| #428474641 Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 338 of 678 | 8474641 | +0.13 | #15 to #338 of 678 | +0.00 to +0.26 | |
| #43Noah Cates Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 15 to 326 of 678 | Noah Cates | +0.13 | #15 to #326 of 678 | +0.00 to +0.26 | |
| #44Colton Parayko Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 24 to 320 of 678 | Colton Parayko | +0.13 | #24 to #320 of 678 | +0.01 to +0.25 | |
| #45Alexis Lafrenière Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 20 to 344 of 678 | Alexis Lafrenière | +0.13 | #20 to #344 of 678 | +0.01 to +0.25 | |
| #46Hendrix Lapierre Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 16 to 352 of 678 | Hendrix Lapierre | +0.13 | #16 to #352 of 678 | 0.00 to +0.26 | |
| #47Marcus Pettersson Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 26 to 333 of 678 | Marcus Pettersson | +0.13 | #26 to #333 of 678 | +0.01 to +0.25 | |
| #48Miro Heiskanen Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 23 to 327 of 678 | Miro Heiskanen | +0.13 | #23 to #327 of 678 | +0.00 to +0.25 | |
| #49Ty Emberson Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 22 to 335 of 678 | Ty Emberson | +0.13 | #22 to #335 of 678 | +0.00 to +0.25 | |
| #50Parker Kelly Drive-defence rank: 80% rank range 19 to 337 of 678 | Parker Kelly | +0.13 | #19 to #337 of 678 | 0.00 to +0.25 |
Every ranked player
The spread
Each dot is one player with at least 300 minutes at 5-on-5. The dashed line is zero, the average regular.
Drive-defence
Definition. Chances suppressed per 60 against the club's rate without him.
Inputs. shifts (measured), shots (measured), xg-model (derived). Built from. Shift charts and the expected-goals model.
Reliability.
- Split-half r
- Year over year r
- Stabilization point
- · — where the number becomes half signal
- Players
Validity.
- pairs
- n
- nextSeason
- discriminant
- baselines
- verdict
Uncertainty.
- method
- resamples
- players
- regulars
- medianWidth95
- medianWidth80
- leagueSpreadSd
- topTenProbabilityAvailable
- note
Shrinkage.
Bias ledger.
- Slices tested
- Survive FDR
Sensitivity.
Adjustments.
- scoreVenue
Depends on. expected goals (trained 2023-24, 2024-25, tested 2025-26, AUC ) · model card
Limits. Chances allowed is the only defensive outcome the play-by-play records.
Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.