CapOrCup measure · 2025–26
Finish
Goals above what the shot quality predicts, per 100 shots, pulled toward the league average until his shot count earns trust (about 580 shots to count half).
- Players ranked
- 744
- Sure of a top-10 place
- 0
- Measured to
- 2026-10-18
The top five, in words
How sure we are, said plainly
Each line is his 80% rank range from 1,000 resamples of every player's band. The dots are twenty equally likely outcomes for his value; the quote button gives a sentence the range supports.
- Ryker Evans#1#1 to #20 of 744
Likely a top-5 skater; anywhere from 1st to 20th.
In 76 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Anthony Mantha#2#2 to #49 of 744
Likely a top-15 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 49th.
In 44 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Morgan Geekie#3#2 to #52 of 744
Likely a top-15 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 52nd.
In 47 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Denton Mateychuk#4#2 to #47 of 744
Likely a top-15 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 47th.
In 47 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Darren Raddysh#5#2 to #86 of 744
Likely a top-20 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 86th.
In 38 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Top 50 of 744
Who leads, and how sure we are
Each player shows his value and his 80% rank range: the 10th to 90th percentile of his rank when every player's value is redrawn from his own band 1,000 times. A wide range means the season has not yet separated him from the players around him.
| Rank | Player | Finish goals per 100 shots | Could rank | 80% band | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Ryker Evans Finish rank: 80% rank range 1 to 20 of 744 | Ryker Evans | +1.62 | #1 to #20 of 744 | +1.04 to +2.20 | |
| #2Anthony Mantha Finish rank: 80% rank range 2 to 49 of 744 | Anthony Mantha | +1.27 | #2 to #49 of 744 | +0.69 to +1.85 | |
| #3Morgan Geekie Finish rank: 80% rank range 2 to 52 of 744 | Morgan Geekie | +1.26 | #2 to #52 of 744 | +0.64 to +1.88 | |
| #4Denton Mateychuk Finish rank: 80% rank range 2 to 47 of 744 | Denton Mateychuk | +1.25 | #2 to #47 of 744 | +0.64 to +1.86 | |
| #5Darren Raddysh Finish rank: 80% rank range 2 to 86 of 744 | Darren Raddysh | +1.13 | #2 to #86 of 744 | +0.45 to +1.81 | |
| #6Brent Burns Finish rank: 80% rank range 3 to 96 of 744 | Brent Burns | +1.04 | #3 to #96 of 744 | +0.37 to +1.71 | |
| #7Filip Forsberg Finish rank: 80% rank range 3 to 111 of 744 | Filip Forsberg | +1.04 | #3 to #111 of 744 | +0.36 to +1.72 | |
| #8Cole Caufield Finish rank: 80% rank range 3 to 93 of 744 | Cole Caufield | +1.04 | #3 to #93 of 744 | +0.39 to +1.69 | |
| #98475906 Finish rank: 80% rank range 5 to 109 of 744 | 8475906 | +0.98 | #5 to #109 of 744 | +0.34 to +1.62 | |
| #10Brock Faber Finish rank: 80% rank range 4 to 112 of 744 | Brock Faber | +0.97 | #4 to #112 of 744 | +0.29 to +1.65 | |
| #11Cutter Gauthier Finish rank: 80% rank range 4 to 118 of 744 | Cutter Gauthier | +0.95 | #4 to #118 of 744 | +0.27 to +1.63 | |
| #12Justin Faulk Finish rank: 80% rank range 5 to 112 of 744 | Justin Faulk | +0.92 | #5 to #112 of 744 | +0.26 to +1.58 | |
| #13Vladislav Gavrikov Finish rank: 80% rank range 5 to 123 of 744 | Vladislav Gavrikov | +0.92 | #5 to #123 of 744 | +0.26 to +1.58 | |
| #14Bobby McMann Finish rank: 80% rank range 6 to 114 of 744 | Bobby McMann | +0.91 | #6 to #114 of 744 | +0.27 to +1.55 | |
| #15Steven Stamkos Finish rank: 80% rank range 6 to 121 of 744 | Steven Stamkos | +0.88 | #6 to #121 of 744 | +0.25 to +1.51 | |
| #16Nikita Kucherov Finish rank: 80% rank range 6 to 142 of 744 | Nikita Kucherov | +0.88 | #6 to #142 of 744 | +0.21 to +1.55 | |
| #17Matt Boldy Finish rank: 80% rank range 6 to 125 of 744 | Matt Boldy | +0.88 | #6 to #125 of 744 | +0.21 to +1.55 | |
| #18William Nylander Finish rank: 80% rank range 6 to 125 of 744 | William Nylander | +0.87 | #6 to #125 of 744 | +0.25 to +1.49 | |
| #19Leon Draisaitl Finish rank: 80% rank range 7 to 137 of 744 | Leon Draisaitl | +0.81 | #7 to #137 of 744 | +0.18 to +1.44 | |
| #20Jakob Chychrun Finish rank: 80% rank range 7 to 147 of 744 | Jakob Chychrun | +0.81 | #7 to #147 of 744 | +0.13 to +1.49 | |
| #21Parker Kelly Finish rank: 80% rank range 10 to 136 of 744 | Parker Kelly | +0.77 | #10 to #136 of 744 | +0.22 to +1.32 | |
| #22Josh Morrissey Finish rank: 80% rank range 8 to 179 of 744 | Josh Morrissey | +0.75 | #8 to #179 of 744 | +0.08 to +1.42 | |
| #23Macklin Celebrini Finish rank: 80% rank range 7 to 161 of 744 | Macklin Celebrini | +0.75 | #7 to #161 of 744 | +0.08 to +1.42 | |
| #24Matthew Schaefer Finish rank: 80% rank range 7 to 177 of 744 | Matthew Schaefer | +0.75 | #7 to #177 of 744 | +0.07 to +1.43 | |
| #25Martin Necas Finish rank: 80% rank range 10 to 164 of 744 | Martin Necas | +0.74 | #10 to #164 of 744 | +0.11 to +1.37 | |
| #26Nathan MacKinnon Finish rank: 80% rank range 8 to 194 of 744 | Nathan MacKinnon | +0.72 | #8 to #194 of 744 | +0.05 to +1.39 | |
| #27Dylan Guenther Finish rank: 80% rank range 9 to 175 of 744 | Dylan Guenther | +0.72 | #9 to #175 of 744 | +0.05 to +1.39 | |
| #28Alex Tuch Finish rank: 80% rank range 9 to 168 of 744 | Alex Tuch | +0.70 | #9 to #168 of 744 | +0.05 to +1.35 | |
| #29Sidney Crosby Finish rank: 80% rank range 12 to 169 of 744 | Sidney Crosby | +0.69 | #12 to #169 of 744 | +0.09 to +1.29 | |
| #308479378 Finish rank: 80% rank range 9 to 187 of 744 | 8479378 | +0.69 | #9 to #187 of 744 | +0.02 to +1.36 | |
| #31Will Borgen Finish rank: 80% rank range 10 to 189 of 744 | Will Borgen | +0.68 | #10 to #189 of 744 | +0.03 to +1.33 | |
| #32Robert Thomas Finish rank: 80% rank range 16 to 152 of 744 | Robert Thomas | +0.68 | #16 to #152 of 744 | +0.18 to +1.18 | |
| #33Brad Marchand Finish rank: 80% rank range 13 to 205 of 744 | Brad Marchand | +0.62 | #13 to #205 of 744 | +0.02 to +1.22 | |
| #348477018 Finish rank: 80% rank range 13 to 178 of 744 | 8477018 | +0.62 | #13 to #178 of 744 | +0.02 to +1.22 | |
| #35Dante Fabbro Finish rank: 80% rank range 13 to 214 of 744 | Dante Fabbro | +0.62 | #13 to #214 of 744 | -0.03 to +1.27 | |
| #36Alexandre Carrier Finish rank: 80% rank range 13 to 196 of 744 | Alexandre Carrier | +0.61 | #13 to #196 of 744 | +0.03 to +1.19 | |
| #37Drake Batherson Finish rank: 80% rank range 12 to 210 of 744 | Drake Batherson | +0.61 | #12 to #210 of 744 | -0.01 to +1.23 | |
| #38Mattias Samuelsson Finish rank: 80% rank range 13 to 220 of 744 | Mattias Samuelsson | +0.61 | #13 to #220 of 744 | -0.03 to +1.25 | |
| #39Zach Werenski Finish rank: 80% rank range 12 to 224 of 744 | Zach Werenski | +0.59 | #12 to #224 of 744 | -0.09 to +1.27 | |
| #40Axel Sandin-Pellikka Finish rank: 80% rank range 13 to 212 of 744 | Axel Sandin-Pellikka | +0.59 | #13 to #212 of 744 | -0.05 to +1.23 | |
| #41Shakir Mukhamadullin Finish rank: 80% rank range 16 to 184 of 744 | Shakir Mukhamadullin | +0.58 | #16 to #184 of 744 | +0.03 to +1.13 | |
| #42Ryan McDonagh Finish rank: 80% rank range 19 to 197 of 744 | Ryan McDonagh | +0.55 | #19 to #197 of 744 | +0.02 to +1.08 | |
| #43Mario Ferraro Finish rank: 80% rank range 11 to 238 of 744 | Mario Ferraro | +0.55 | #11 to #238 of 744 | -0.11 to +1.21 | |
| #44Matthew Robertson Finish rank: 80% rank range 13 to 224 of 744 | Matthew Robertson | +0.55 | #13 to #224 of 744 | -0.11 to +1.21 | |
| #45Tyson Foerster Finish rank: 80% rank range 23 to 164 of 744 | Tyson Foerster | +0.55 | #23 to #164 of 744 | +0.12 to +0.98 | |
| #46Lian Bichsel Finish rank: 80% rank range 25 to 179 of 744 | Lian Bichsel | +0.55 | #25 to #179 of 744 | +0.08 to +1.02 | |
| #47Adam Larsson Finish rank: 80% rank range 14 to 247 of 744 | Adam Larsson | +0.54 | #14 to #247 of 744 | -0.13 to +1.21 | |
| #48Simon Nemec Finish rank: 80% rank range 12 to 239 of 744 | Simon Nemec | +0.54 | #12 to #239 of 744 | -0.10 to +1.18 | |
| #49Pavel Zacha Finish rank: 80% rank range 20 to 207 of 744 | Pavel Zacha | +0.53 | #20 to #207 of 744 | -0.02 to +1.08 | |
| #50JJ Peterka Finish rank: 80% rank range 18 to 241 of 744 | JJ Peterka | +0.53 | #18 to #241 of 744 | -0.09 to +1.15 |
Every ranked player
The spread
Each dot is one player with at least 0 minutes at 5-on-5. The dashed line is zero, the average regular.
Finish
Definition. Goals scored above or below what the shots were worth.
Inputs. shots (measured), xg-model (derived). Built from. The expected-goals model.
Reliability.
- Split-half r
- Year over year r
- Stabilization point
- · — where the number becomes half signal
- Players
Validity.
- pairs
- n
- nextSeason
- discriminant
- baselines
- verdict
Uncertainty.
Not measured yet: .
Shrinkage.
- applies
- method
- constant
- constantUnit
- playersFit
- trueSd
- noiseSd
- players
Bias ledger.
- Slices tested
- Survive FDR
Sensitivity.
Depends on. expected goals (trained 2023-24, 2024-25, tested 2025-26, AUC ) · model card
Limits. Repeats weakly from year to year; the card shows the shrunk value and the raw value.
Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.