Returning regular · 2025-26
Simon Nemec
Calgary Flames · RD · R shot · age 22 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- CGY
- Lane
- RD
- Age
- 22
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
6 RD regulars in CGY
The all-team median is 4. CGY’s farm system ranks #4 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract · CGY
$7.25M cap hit
2026–27 through 2030–31. Certified
Role question › Costs more per point than the position median and is below the line on five-on-five creation and penalty-kill use. Either the contract or the deployment needs a look.
- Defencemen are compared only with defencemen. Points understate defensive value, so the on-ice impact measures on each player page carry the rest: the expected goals created and allowed while he plays, and the goals whose sequence began on his shift. The impact model in a later phase addresses that.
- 37 real points at this cap hit would pass the cost test (he had 26, after 1 empty-net left out).
- A five-on-five rate of 0.83 per 60 (he had 0.81) or a regular penalty-kill role (1:00+ a night) would pass the Cup side.
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 19 to 22
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 14 Slovakia U18 0.48 → age 15 Slovakia U18 0.67 → age 16 Slovakia U20 0.58 → age 17 Slovakia 0.51 → age 18 Slovakia 0.67 → age 19 AHL 0.52 → age 20 NHL 0.32 → age 21 NHL 0.15 → age 22 NHL 0.38
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Colton ParaykoD · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.04 | age 23 NHL 0.43 → age 24 NHL 0.43 → age 25 NHL 0.35 → age 26 NHL 0.44 → age 27 NHL 0.38 |
| Derrick PouliotD · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.05 | age 23 NHL 0.00 → age 24 NHL 0.31 → age 25 NHL 0.19 → age 26 AHL 0.31 → age 27 AHL 0.26 |
| Dante FabbroD · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.05 | age 23 NHL 0.36 → age 24 NHL 0.14 → age 25 NHL 0.23 → age 26 NHL 0.42 → age 27 NHL 0.15 |
| Rasmus SandinD · matched at ages 19, 20, 22 | 0.05 | age 23 NHL 0.39 → age 24 NHL 0.34 → age 25 NHL 0.37 → age 26 NHL 0.40 |
| Jared SpurgeonD · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.06 | age 23 NHL 0.39 → age 24 NHL 0.39 → age 25 NHL 0.38 → age 26 NHL 0.38 → age 27 NHL 0.50 |
| Jack ThompsonD · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.06 | age 23 NHL 0.32 → age 24 AHL 0.13 |
| Jake ChristiansenD · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.07 | age 23 NHL 0.17 → age 24 NHL 0.17 → age 25 NHL 0.12 → age 26 NHL 0.07 |
| Ryan PulockD · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.07 | age 23 NHL 0.47 → age 24 NHL 0.45 → age 25 NHL 0.52 → age 26 NHL 0.30 → age 27 NHL 0.38 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: 0.41 points per 60 in the ten games before, 0.88 in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.