CapOrCup measure · 2025–26
Isolated impact (RAPM)
Expected goals per 60 minutes he adds (creating plus preventing) after separating him from linemates, opponents, score and zone. 0 is an average NHL regular.
- Players ranked
- 678
- Sure of a top-10 place
- 0
- Measured to
- 2026-10-18
The top five, in words
How sure we are, said plainly
Each line is his 80% rank range from 1,000 resamples of every player's band. The dots are twenty equally likely outcomes for his value; the quote button gives a sentence the range supports.
- Brandon Hagel#1#1 to #53 of 678
Likely a top-10 skater; anywhere from 1st to 53rd.
In 59 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Moritz Seider#2#1 to #50 of 678
Likely a top-10 skater; anywhere from 1st to 50th.
In 53 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Jordan Kyrou#3#1 to #70 of 678
Likely a top-10 skater; anywhere from 1st to 70th.
In 51 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Sam Malinski#4#3 to #90 of 678
Likely a top-20 skater; anywhere from 3rd to 90th.
In 36 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Jordan Spence#5#3 to #93 of 678
Likely a top-20 skater; anywhere from 3rd to 93rd.
In 34 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Top 50 of 678
Who leads, and how sure we are
Each player shows his value and his 80% rank range: the 10th to 90th percentile of his rank when every player's value is redrawn from his own band 1,000 times. A wide range means the season has not yet separated him from the players around him.
| Rank | Player | Isolated impact (RAPM) xG/60 | Could rank | 80% band | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Brandon Hagel Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 1 to 53 of 678 | Brandon Hagel | +0.47 | #1 to #53 of 678 | +0.29 to +0.65 | |
| #2Moritz Seider Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 1 to 50 of 678 | Moritz Seider | +0.46 | #1 to #50 of 678 | +0.29 to +0.63 | |
| #3Jordan Kyrou Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 1 to 70 of 678 | Jordan Kyrou | +0.44 | #1 to #70 of 678 | +0.27 to +0.62 | |
| #4Sam Malinski Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 3 to 90 of 678 | Sam Malinski | +0.40 | #3 to #90 of 678 | +0.23 to +0.57 | |
| #5Jordan Spence Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 3 to 93 of 678 | Jordan Spence | +0.39 | #3 to #93 of 678 | +0.22 to +0.56 | |
| #6Adam Fox Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 3 to 132 of 678 | Adam Fox | +0.37 | #3 to #132 of 678 | +0.19 to +0.55 | |
| #7Luke Evangelista Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 4 to 117 of 678 | Luke Evangelista | +0.37 | #4 to #117 of 678 | +0.20 to +0.54 | |
| #8Lane Hutson Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 4 to 121 of 678 | Lane Hutson | +0.36 | #4 to #121 of 678 | +0.20 to +0.52 | |
| #9Nathan MacKinnon Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 4 to 141 of 678 | Nathan MacKinnon | +0.35 | #4 to #141 of 678 | +0.17 to +0.53 | |
| #10Tom Wilson Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 5 to 145 of 678 | Tom Wilson | +0.35 | #5 to #145 of 678 | +0.17 to +0.53 | |
| #11Brady Tkachuk Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 5 to 156 of 678 | Brady Tkachuk | +0.34 | #5 to #156 of 678 | +0.15 to +0.52 | |
| #12Mattias Ekholm Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 6 to 153 of 678 | Mattias Ekholm | +0.33 | #6 to #153 of 678 | +0.15 to +0.51 | |
| #13Damon Severson Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 6 to 139 of 678 | Damon Severson | +0.33 | #6 to #139 of 678 | +0.17 to +0.50 | |
| #14Adam Pelech Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 7 to 153 of 678 | Adam Pelech | +0.32 | #7 to #153 of 678 | +0.15 to +0.49 | |
| #15Tommy Novak Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 6 to 164 of 678 | Tommy Novak | +0.32 | #6 to #164 of 678 | +0.14 to +0.49 | |
| #16Connor McDavid Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 6 to 174 of 678 | Connor McDavid | +0.31 | #6 to #174 of 678 | +0.14 to +0.49 | |
| #17Jason Robertson Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 7 to 173 of 678 | Jason Robertson | +0.31 | #7 to #173 of 678 | +0.14 to +0.49 | |
| #18Dylan Cozens Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 7 to 176 of 678 | Dylan Cozens | +0.31 | #7 to #176 of 678 | +0.13 to +0.48 | |
| #19Evan Bouchard Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 9 to 190 of 678 | Evan Bouchard | +0.29 | #9 to #190 of 678 | +0.11 to +0.47 | |
| #20Brock Nelson Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 9 to 208 of 678 | Brock Nelson | +0.29 | #9 to #208 of 678 | +0.11 to +0.47 | |
| #21Zach Werenski Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 12 to 208 of 678 | Zach Werenski | +0.28 | #12 to #208 of 678 | +0.12 to +0.44 | |
| #22Robert Thomas Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 10 to 224 of 678 | Robert Thomas | +0.28 | #10 to #224 of 678 | +0.10 to +0.46 | |
| #23Hendrix Lapierre Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 8 to 233 of 678 | Hendrix Lapierre | +0.28 | #8 to #233 of 678 | +0.09 to +0.46 | |
| #24Arseny Gritsyuk Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 10 to 225 of 678 | Arseny Gritsyuk | +0.28 | #10 to #225 of 678 | +0.10 to +0.45 | |
| #25Devon Toews Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 9 to 197 of 678 | Devon Toews | +0.27 | #9 to #197 of 678 | +0.10 to +0.45 | |
| #26Logan Stankoven Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 10 to 255 of 678 | Logan Stankoven | +0.26 | #10 to #255 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.44 | |
| #27Drew Doughty Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 13 to 233 of 678 | Drew Doughty | +0.25 | #13 to #233 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.43 | |
| #28Pontus Holmberg Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 13 to 258 of 678 | Pontus Holmberg | +0.25 | #13 to #258 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.44 | |
| #29Quinn Hughes Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 15 to 216 of 678 | Quinn Hughes | +0.25 | #15 to #216 of 678 | +0.09 to +0.41 | |
| #30Jack Eichel Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 11 to 267 of 678 | Jack Eichel | +0.25 | #11 to #267 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.43 | |
| #31Michael Carcone Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 16 to 239 of 678 | Michael Carcone | +0.25 | #16 to #239 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.42 | |
| #32Rasmus Dahlin Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 16 to 248 of 678 | Rasmus Dahlin | +0.24 | #16 to #248 of 678 | +0.08 to +0.41 | |
| #33Blake Coleman Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 13 to 256 of 678 | Blake Coleman | +0.24 | #13 to #256 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.43 | |
| #34Nikita Kucherov Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 16 to 251 of 678 | Nikita Kucherov | +0.24 | #16 to #251 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.42 | |
| #35Ross Colton Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 15 to 279 of 678 | Ross Colton | +0.24 | #15 to #279 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.42 | |
| #36Matthew Schaefer Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 16 to 235 of 678 | Matthew Schaefer | +0.23 | #16 to #235 of 678 | +0.07 to +0.40 | |
| #37Danton Heinen Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 14 to 281 of 678 | Danton Heinen | +0.23 | #14 to #281 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.42 | |
| #38Barrett Hayton Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 15 to 259 of 678 | Barrett Hayton | +0.23 | #15 to #259 of 678 | +0.06 to +0.41 | |
| #39Claude Giroux Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 16 to 267 of 678 | Claude Giroux | +0.23 | #16 to #267 of 678 | +0.05 to +0.41 | |
| #40Jaccob Slavin Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 15 to 289 of 678 | Jaccob Slavin | +0.23 | #15 to #289 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.41 | |
| #41Connor Clifton Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 16 to 293 of 678 | Connor Clifton | +0.22 | #16 to #293 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.40 | |
| #42Mark Jankowski Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 17 to 298 of 678 | Mark Jankowski | +0.22 | #17 to #298 of 678 | +0.03 to +0.41 | |
| #43Josh Doan Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 22 to 290 of 678 | Josh Doan | +0.22 | #22 to #290 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.39 | |
| #44Trevor Zegras Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 20 to 294 of 678 | Trevor Zegras | +0.22 | #20 to #294 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.39 | |
| #45Mavrik Bourque Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 24 to 272 of 678 | Mavrik Bourque | +0.21 | #24 to #272 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.39 | |
| #46Nikolaj Ehlers Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 21 to 306 of 678 | Nikolaj Ehlers | +0.21 | #21 to #306 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.39 | |
| #47K'Andre Miller Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 18 to 284 of 678 | K'Andre Miller | +0.21 | #18 to #284 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.38 | |
| #48Gage Goncalves Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 21 to 321 of 678 | Gage Goncalves | +0.21 | #21 to #321 of 678 | +0.03 to +0.39 | |
| #49Nate Schmidt Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 21 to 290 of 678 | Nate Schmidt | +0.21 | #21 to #290 of 678 | +0.04 to +0.38 | |
| #50Clayton Keller Isolated impact (RAPM) rank: 80% rank range 21 to 320 of 678 | Clayton Keller | +0.21 | #21 to #320 of 678 | +0.03 to +0.39 |
Every ranked player
The spread
Each dot is one player with at least 300 minutes at 5-on-5. The dashed line is zero, the average regular.
Isolated impact (RAPM)
Definition. Each player's own contribution to chances for and against, with every teammate, every opponent, score state, venue and zone start held as columns of one ridge regression over every 5-on-5 stint.
Inputs. shifts (measured), shots (measured), xg-model (derived). Built from. 5-on-5 stints built from the shift charts; the expected-goals model; ridge regression with the penalty chosen by cross-validation.
Constants. ridge penalty = ().
Reliability.
- Split-half r
- Year over year r
- Stabilization point
- · — where the number becomes half signal
- Players
Validity.
- pairs
- n
- nextSeason
- discriminant
- baselines
- verdict
Uncertainty.
- method
- resamples
- players
- regulars
- medianWidth95
- medianWidth80
- leagueSpreadSd
- topTenProbabilityAvailable
- note
Shrinkage.
Bias ledger.
Not measured yet: .
Sensitivity.
Not measured yet: .
Depends on. expected goals (trained 2023-24, 2024-25, tested 2025-26, AUC ) · model card
Limits. Players who always share the ice cannot be told apart by any regression; the penalty pulls them toward each other.
Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.