Returning regular · 2025-26
Mavrik Bourque
Nashville Predators · C · R shot · age 24 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- NSH
- Lane
- C
- Age
- 24
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
9 C regulars in NSH
The all-team median is 7. NSH’s farm system ranks #7 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract · NSH
$5.50M cap hit
2026–27 through 2031–32 · UFA at expiry. Certified
Cup signal › Costs more per point than the position median, but earns it with five-on-five creation or penalty-kill work.
- Cost and production both sit close to his position's median. Nothing unusual drives this reading.
- 44 real points at this cap hit would pass the cost test (he had 37, after 4 empty-net left out).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 21 to 24
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 14 QM15AAA 0.44 → age 15 QM15AAA 1.41 → age 16 QMAAA 1.15 → age 17 QMJHL 0.84 → age 18 QMJHL 1.45 → age 19 QMJHL 1.54 → age 20 QMJHL 2.19 → age 21 AHL 0.67 → age 22 AHL 1.08 → age 23 NHL 0.34 → age 24 NHL 0.50
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei KuzmenkoL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.05 | age 25 KHL 0.50 → age 26 KHL 0.91 → age 27 NHL 0.91 → age 28 NHL 0.49 → age 29 NHL 0.41 |
| Dillon DubeC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.06 | age 25 NHL 0.16 → age 26 KHL 0.20 → age 27 AHL 0.37 |
| Anthony DuclairL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.06 | age 25 NHL 0.74 → age 26 NHL 0.78 → age 27 NHL 0.45 → age 28 NHL 0.48 → age 29 NHL 0.25 |
| Linus KarlssonC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.06 | age 25 NHL 0.26 → age 26 NHL 0.44 |
| Jonathan MarchessaultC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.06 | age 25 NHL 0.40 → age 26 NHL 0.68 → age 27 NHL 0.97 → age 28 NHL 0.72 → age 29 NHL 0.71 |
| Kyle PalmieriC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.06 | age 25 NHL 0.69 → age 26 NHL 0.66 → age 27 NHL 0.71 → age 28 NHL 0.68 → age 29 NHL 0.69 |
| Christian DvorakC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.06 | age 25 NHL 0.55 → age 26 NHL 0.59 → age 27 NHL 0.44 → age 28 NHL 0.30 → age 29 NHL 0.40 |
| Charlie CoyleC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24 | 0.07 | age 25 NHL 0.68 → age 26 NHL 0.56 → age 27 NHL 0.47 → age 28 NHL 0.53 → age 29 NHL 0.31 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: 1.36 points per 60 in the ten games before, 1.34 in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.