CapOrCup measure · 2025–26
Drive
+5 means his club gets five more points of the scoring chances when he is on the ice than when he is off it. 0 is his club's own level. Ranked on three seasons (this one counts fully, the last two at 0.7 and 0.4), because one season alone is mostly noise.
- Players ranked
- 678
- Sure of a top-10 place
- 1
- Measured to
- 2026-10-18
The top five, in words
How sure we are, said plainly
Each line is his 80% rank range from 1,000 resamples of every player's band. The dots are twenty equally likely outcomes for his value; the quote button gives a sentence the range supports.
- Adam Fox#1#1 to #10 of 678
Likely a top-3 skater; anywhere from 1st to 10th.
In 91 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Mattias Ekholm#2#2 to #12 of 678
Likely a top-5 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 12th.
In 87 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Connor McDavid#3#2 to #13 of 678
Likely a top-5 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 13th.
In 83 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Evan Bouchard#4#2 to #16 of 678
Likely a top-10 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 16th.
In 73 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - Brandon Hagel#5#4 to #23 of 678
Likely a top-10 skater; anywhere from 4th to 23rd.
In 54 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Top 50 of 678
Who leads, and how sure we are
Each player shows his value and his 80% rank range: the 10th to 90th percentile of his rank when every player's value is redrawn from his own band 1,000 times. A wide range means the season has not yet separated him from the players around him.
| Rank | Player | Drive pts | Could rank | 80% band | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Adam Fox Drive rank: 80% rank range 1 to 10 of 678 | Adam Fox | +10.9 | #1 to #10 of 678 | +8.9 to +13.1 | |
| #2Mattias Ekholm Drive rank: 80% rank range 2 to 12 of 678 | Mattias Ekholm | +10.1 | #2 to #12 of 678 | +8.4 to +11.7 | |
| #3Connor McDavid Drive rank: 80% rank range 2 to 13 of 678 | Connor McDavid | +9.9 | #2 to #13 of 678 | +8.2 to +11.5 | |
| #4Evan Bouchard Drive rank: 80% rank range 2 to 16 of 678 | Evan Bouchard | +9.5 | #2 to #16 of 678 | +7.7 to +11.1 | |
| #5Brandon Hagel Drive rank: 80% rank range 4 to 23 of 678 | Brandon Hagel | +8.7 | #4 to #23 of 678 | +7.0 to +10.4 | |
| #6Jordan Kyrou Drive rank: 80% rank range 3 to 25 of 678 | Jordan Kyrou | +8.7 | #3 to #25 of 678 | +6.9 to +10.7 | |
| #7Zach Hyman Drive rank: 80% rank range 5 to 33 of 678 | Zach Hyman | +8.2 | #5 to #33 of 678 | +6.2 to +10.1 | |
| #8Lane Hutson Drive rank: 80% rank range 5 to 46 of 678 | Lane Hutson | +7.9 | #5 to #46 of 678 | +5.7 to +10.0 | |
| #9Arseny Gritsyuk Drive rank: 80% rank range 2 to 89 of 678 | Arseny Gritsyuk | +7.9 | #2 to #89 of 678 | +4.3 to +11.4 | |
| #10Brady Tkachuk Drive rank: 80% rank range 6 to 44 of 678 | Brady Tkachuk | +7.5 | #6 to #44 of 678 | +5.7 to +9.6 | |
| #11Luke Evangelista Drive rank: 80% rank range 7 to 57 of 678 | Luke Evangelista | +7.2 | #7 to #57 of 678 | +5.1 to +9.4 | |
| #12Zach Werenski Drive rank: 80% rank range 9 to 56 of 678 | Zach Werenski | +7.1 | #9 to #56 of 678 | +5.3 to +8.8 | |
| #13Ville Koivunen Drive rank: 80% rank range 2 to 214 of 678 | Ville Koivunen | +7.0 | #2 to #214 of 678 | +1.8 to +12.3 | |
| #14Linus Karlsson Drive rank: 80% rank range 6 to 104 of 678 | Linus Karlsson | +6.7 | #6 to #104 of 678 | +3.8 to +9.8 | |
| #15Robert Thomas Drive rank: 80% rank range 12 to 73 of 678 | Robert Thomas | +6.6 | #12 to #73 of 678 | +4.7 to +8.4 | |
| #16Mark Jankowski Drive rank: 80% rank range 8 to 96 of 678 | Mark Jankowski | +6.5 | #8 to #96 of 678 | +3.9 to +9.1 | |
| #17Mathew Barzal Drive rank: 80% rank range 10 to 76 of 678 | Mathew Barzal | +6.5 | #10 to #76 of 678 | +4.5 to +8.5 | |
| #18Nathan MacKinnon Drive rank: 80% rank range 13 to 70 of 678 | Nathan MacKinnon | +6.4 | #13 to #70 of 678 | +4.7 to +8.1 | |
| #19Anthony Cirelli Drive rank: 80% rank range 13 to 65 of 678 | Anthony Cirelli | +6.4 | #13 to #65 of 678 | +4.8 to +8.1 | |
| #20Quinn Hughes Drive rank: 80% rank range 12 to 77 of 678 | Quinn Hughes | +6.3 | #12 to #77 of 678 | +4.3 to +8.3 | |
| #21Hunter Brzustewicz Drive rank: 80% rank range 6 to 205 of 678 | Hunter Brzustewicz | +6.3 | #6 to #205 of 678 | +2.0 to +10.1 | |
| #22Jacob Melanson Drive rank: 80% rank range 2 to 251 of 678 | Jacob Melanson | +6.3 | #2 to #251 of 678 | +1.0 to +11.8 | |
| #23Jesper Bratt Drive rank: 80% rank range 16 to 76 of 678 | Jesper Bratt | +6.1 | #16 to #76 of 678 | +4.4 to +7.7 | |
| #24Nikita Kucherov Drive rank: 80% rank range 15 to 87 of 678 | Nikita Kucherov | +6.0 | #15 to #87 of 678 | +4.1 to +7.9 | |
| #25Jordan Spence Drive rank: 80% rank range 14 to 84 of 678 | Jordan Spence | +6.0 | #14 to #84 of 678 | +4.1 to +8.0 | |
| #26Moritz Seider Drive rank: 80% rank range 17 to 87 of 678 | Moritz Seider | +6.0 | #17 to #87 of 678 | +4.1 to +7.8 | |
| #27Rasmus Dahlin Drive rank: 80% rank range 17 to 85 of 678 | Rasmus Dahlin | +6.0 | #17 to #85 of 678 | +4.3 to +7.7 | |
| #28Denver Barkey Drive rank: 80% rank range 3 to 244 of 678 | Denver Barkey | +5.8 | #3 to #244 of 678 | +0.8 to +10.7 | |
| #29Leon Draisaitl Drive rank: 80% rank range 17 to 86 of 678 | Leon Draisaitl | +5.7 | #17 to #86 of 678 | +4.2 to +7.6 | |
| #30Artemi Panarin Drive rank: 80% rank range 19 to 94 of 678 | Artemi Panarin | +5.7 | #19 to #94 of 678 | +4.1 to +7.4 | |
| #31Josh Doan Drive rank: 80% rank range 14 to 158 of 678 | Josh Doan | +5.7 | #14 to #158 of 678 | +2.6 to +8.2 | |
| #32Jason Robertson Drive rank: 80% rank range 17 to 104 of 678 | Jason Robertson | +5.7 | #17 to #104 of 678 | +3.7 to +7.6 | |
| #33Ben Meyers Drive rank: 80% rank range 4 to 246 of 678 | Ben Meyers | +5.7 | #4 to #246 of 678 | +0.9 to +10.4 | |
| #34Daniil But Drive rank: 80% rank range 4 to 308 of 678 | Daniil But | +5.6 | #4 to #308 of 678 | +0.5 to +10.5 | |
| #35Barrett Hayton Drive rank: 80% rank range 18 to 115 of 678 | Barrett Hayton | +5.6 | #18 to #115 of 678 | +3.4 to +7.5 | |
| #36Cale Fleury Drive rank: 80% rank range 4 to 323 of 678 | Cale Fleury | +5.4 | #4 to #323 of 678 | +0.1 to +10.5 | |
| #37Jack Hughes Drive rank: 80% rank range 20 to 112 of 678 | Jack Hughes | +5.4 | #20 to #112 of 678 | +3.5 to +7.2 | |
| #38Adam Pelech Drive rank: 80% rank range 19 to 112 of 678 | Adam Pelech | +5.3 | #19 to #112 of 678 | +3.5 to +7.3 | |
| #39Alexis Lafrenière Drive rank: 80% rank range 21 to 127 of 678 | Alexis Lafrenière | +5.3 | #21 to #127 of 678 | +3.3 to +7.2 | |
| #40Kirill Kaprizov Drive rank: 80% rank range 20 to 137 of 678 | Kirill Kaprizov | +5.3 | #20 to #137 of 678 | +3.1 to +7.2 | |
| #41Kailer Yamamoto Drive rank: 80% rank range 13 to 169 of 678 | Kailer Yamamoto | +5.2 | #13 to #169 of 678 | +2.4 to +8.3 | |
| #42Macklin Celebrini Drive rank: 80% rank range 21 to 132 of 678 | Macklin Celebrini | +5.2 | #21 to #132 of 678 | +3.0 to +7.2 | |
| #43Josh Morrissey Drive rank: 80% rank range 25 to 130 of 678 | Josh Morrissey | +4.9 | #25 to #130 of 678 | +3.2 to +6.9 | |
| #44Tommy Novak Drive rank: 80% rank range 21 to 154 of 678 | Tommy Novak | +4.9 | #21 to #154 of 678 | +2.6 to +7.2 | |
| #45Nick Suzuki Drive rank: 80% rank range 28 to 133 of 678 | Nick Suzuki | +4.9 | #28 to #133 of 678 | +3.0 to +6.7 | |
| #46Nico Hischier Drive rank: 80% rank range 23 to 135 of 678 | Nico Hischier | +4.9 | #23 to #135 of 678 | +3.1 to +6.9 | |
| #47Oliver Moore Drive rank: 80% rank range 9 to 316 of 678 | Oliver Moore | +4.8 | #9 to #316 of 678 | +0.6 to +8.9 | |
| #48Damon Severson Drive rank: 80% rank range 25 to 137 of 678 | Damon Severson | +4.8 | #25 to #137 of 678 | +2.9 to +6.9 | |
| #49Mitch Marner Drive rank: 80% rank range 26 to 142 of 678 | Mitch Marner | +4.8 | #26 to #142 of 678 | +2.8 to +6.6 | |
| #50William Eklund Drive rank: 80% rank range 24 to 138 of 678 | William Eklund | +4.8 | #24 to #138 of 678 | +2.9 to +6.8 |
Every ranked player
The spread
Each dot is one player with at least 300 minutes at 5-on-5. The dashed line is zero, the average regular.
Drive
Definition. Share of expected goals while a player is on the ice, minus his club's share with him off the ice. Players are RANKED by the three-season Drive: the same share computed on 5v5 on-ice and club-off-ice expected goals pooled over this season and the two before, weighted 1 / 0.7 / 0.4. The single-season value is shown beside it, labelled.
Inputs. shifts (measured), shots (measured), xg-model (derived). Built from. Shift charts and CapOrCup's expected-goals model applied to every unblocked shot at 5-on-5 (five skaters and a goalie a side).
Constants. minimum ice time = (); three-season weights = ().
Reliability.
- Split-half r
- Year over year r
- Stabilization point
- · — where the number becomes half signal
- Players
Validity.
- pairs
- n
- nextSeason
- discriminant
- baselines
- verdict
Uncertainty.
- method
- resamples
- players
- regulars
- medianWidth95
- medianWidth80
- leagueSpreadSd
- topTenProbabilityAvailable
- note
Shrinkage.
Bias ledger.
- Slices tested
- Survive FDR
Sensitivity.
Not measured yet: .
Adjustments.
- scoreVenue
Ranked by (pre-registered).
- from
- registerId
- registeredAt
- status
- decisionRule
- weights
- nextSeasonR
- splitHalfR
- band80
- clubLeakageR
- alsoTested
Depends on. expected goals (trained 2023-24, 2024-25, tested 2025-26, AUC ) · model card
Limits. Linemates and opponents are shown beside it (Company) rather than removed from it; the isolated version is RAPM. The single-season value has split-half reliability about 0.40 and an 80% band wider than the spread of players, so one season alone should not be ranked; the three-season version carries a little more club strength (r 0.08 against 0.02), inside the 0.10 limit set before the test. The isolated version is rapm.
Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.