Returning regular · 2025-26
Jacob Melanson
Seattle Kraken · RW · R shot · age 23 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- SEA
- Lane
- RW
- Age
- 23
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
4 RW regulars in SEA
The all-team median is 3.5. SEA’s farm system ranks #8 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract · SEA
$1.45M cap hit
2026–27 through 2028–29. Certified
Role question › Costs more per point than the position median and is below the line on five-on-five creation and penalty-kill use. Either the contract or the deployment needs a look.
- He did not reach the five-on-five sample (20 games and 10:00 a night at five-on-five), so the rate test cannot pass.
- At 1.4% of the cap, almost any NHL production is surplus.
- 12 real points at this cap hit would pass the cost test (he had 5).
- A five-on-five rate of 1.68 per 60 (he had no qualifying sample) or a regular penalty-kill role (1:00+ a night) would pass the Cup side.
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 19 to 22
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 13 NSMBHL 0.76 → age 14 NSMBHL 2.45 → age 15 NSMMHL 1.28 → age 16 QMJHL 0.26 → age 17 QMJHL 1.06 → age 18 QMJHL 1.04 → age 19 QMJHL 1.63 → age 20 AHL 0.29 → age 21 AHL 0.31 → age 22 NHL 0.14
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Mikhail ShalaginL · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.04 | age 23 KHL 0.15 → age 24 Belarus 0.31 → age 25 VHL 0.12 → age 26 VHL 0.24 |
| Karl HenrikssonC · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.04 | age 23 AHL 0.16 → age 24 SHL 0.22 → age 25 SHL 0.22 |
| Noel AcciariC · matched at ages 19, 21, 22 | 0.05 | age 23 NCAA 0.30 → age 24 NHL 0.05 → age 25 NHL 0.17 → age 26 NHL 0.18 → age 27 NHL 0.19 |
| Nikolai ChebykinL · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.06 | age 23 VHL 0.10 → age 24 KHL 0.34 → age 25 KHL 0.32 → age 26 KHL 0.14 → age 27 KHL 0.25 |
| Brett LeasonR · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.07 | age 23 NHL 0.17 → age 24 NHL 0.32 → age 25 NHL 0.27 → age 26 AHL 0.36 |
| Tyler PitlickC · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.07 | age 23 NHL 0.12 → age 24 AHL 0.26 → age 25 NHL 0.35 → age 26 NHL 0.34 → age 27 NHL 0.26 |
| Joseph VelenoC · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.08 | age 23 NHL 0.25 → age 24 NHL 0.35 → age 25 NHL 0.18 → age 26 NHL 0.08 |
| Ozzy WiesblattC · matched at ages 19, 20, 21, 22 | 0.08 | age 23 AHL 0.28 → age 24 NHL 0.13 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.