Macklin Celebrini
San Jose Sharks · C · shoots L · 20 · RFA at expiry
Contract, value & projections
- Paid
- 0.9% of the cap · through 2026–27 · the contract
- Worth
- 12.7% of the cap · Cup: paid under the market
- Next
- Not on file (not projected yet)
- Drive (3 seasons)
- points of chance share added with him on · what this is#42Macklin Celebrini Drive rank: 80% rank range 21 to 132 of 678 Likely a top-60 skater; anywhere from 21st to 132nd.
Tonight · 10:30 p.m. ET
BUF at SJS
Projected slot from the licensed depth chart; props from the model's learned layer on shots, finishing and the opposing starter; ratings are last season's until this one has enough games. Information, not a recommendation.
Nothing listed against Macklin Celebrini.
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
C regulars in SJS
The all-team median is . SJS’s farm system sits #1 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
White noise · as of 2026-10-18 · social 2026-10-18
Macklin Celebrini is among the most talked-about (100th percentile); attention this week is 2.23× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: .
Latest from the league: NHL player poll names breakout stars in action during Frozen Frenzy (2026-10-12) · Short Shifts Power Rankings: October 16 (2026-10-16) · Celebrini, Smith face off in ‘Elevated Cupcake Experience’ (2026-10-13)
Contract · SJS
cap hit
2024–25 through 2026–27 · RFA at expiry. Reported
Both signals › Cheaper than his position's median cost per point AND drives five-on-five scoring or kills penalties.
Measures · 2025–26 · 80% rank ranges
Where Macklin Celebrini ranks, and how sure we are
Each rank is the 10th to 90th percentile of his place when every skater's value is redrawn 1,000 times from his own band. One season rarely separates a player from the dozens around him.
- #42#21 to #132 of 678
Likely a top-60 skater; anywhere from 21st to 132nd.
In 2 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #203#74 to #477 of 678
Likely a top-250 skater; anywhere from 74th to 477th.
In fewer than 1 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
14 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #23#7 to #161 of 744
Likely a top-50 skater; anywhere from 7th to 161st.
In 15 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
18 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #86#35 to #330 of 678
Likely a top-150 skater; anywhere from 35th to 330th.
In 2 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
18 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #515#206 to #618 of 678
Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 206th to 618th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
6 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC ). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Advanced scoring · 2025-26
Goals, assists and plus/minus, weighted by what they changed
Every goal counts the win probability it added, scaled so the average goal is 1.0: a late tying goal counts several, a goal at 6-1 or into an empty net late counts little. Plus/minus also credits the players on the ice when the goal's sequence began.
Shot map · 2025-26
Where he shoots from, and how it goes
Every unblocked shot placed by distance, angle and shot type. His rate from each spot is set against the league's rate for the same shot from the same spot, so the edge is against everyone else taking that shot, not against an average.
Other spots he uses: .
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Career arc ·
Macklin Celebrini, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: .
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected through his age-25 season (80% band ). He logged , below the 10th percentile. The model was applied to his draft class without being fitted or tested on it.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | ||||
| 2025-26 | ||||
| 2026-27 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-10-18
Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far:
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Sidney CrosbyC · matched at ages | ||
| Connor McDavidC · matched at ages | ||
| Auston MatthewsC · matched at ages | ||
| Gabriel VilardiC · matched at ages | ||
| Marco RossiC · matched at ages | ||
| Patrick KaneR · matched at ages | ||
| Mitch MarnerR · matched at ages | ||
| Clayton KellerR · matched at ages |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Fit components (description)
Macklin Celebrini: role, system and coach, as measured
What the shift charts say about Macklin Celebrini's role and his club's game, and what the rules allow. No fit number is shown: fit: not yet validated.
Rules that travel with him: passes. Club-specific rules (50 contracts, 23-man roster, the two front offices) are on each team's Moves tab.
- Trade protection: passes. not yet eligible for a clause (CBA 11.8(a)). CBA Art. 11.8(a)
- Waiver exemption: passes. signed at 18: exempt through 3 seasons or 160 NHL games (now season 3, 152 games). CBA Art. 13.4; CBA Art. 13.4 (11-game rule)
as of 2026-04-16