Final · All games

MTL 3 – 4 OTT

Montréal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators. Final. The model's pre-game price is kept below as recorded.

Model
OTT 62%
Expected score
2.8 – 3.4
Market
—
Venue
Canadian Tire Centre
Pre-game price

What the model says

Lineups not yet published: each club's usual lineup assumed. Starting goalie not confirmed: goaltending held at league average.

OTT win62%MTL 39%
FinishesOTT reg 50% · OT/SO 12%MTL reg 27% · OT/SO 11%
Most likely finalsMTL 2–3 OTT (7%) · MTL 1–4 OTT (6%) · MTL 3–2 OTT (6%)
Ledgermorning 61% OTTlineups 62% · hash 7fdbb126e2
Club ratings (Elo)OTT 1557 · MTL 1588by results; last season's, until this one has enough games

Source: CapOrCup game model (derived from club ratings, rest and starters)

Starters · depth chart 2026-09-28

In goal

The league names no starter before puck drop. First on each club's depth chart, from the licensed feed, is the expected starter.

MTL · expected (depth chart)

Jakub Dobes

Goalie rating 1561 (top tenth of the league) · +23.4 saved above expected on 1817 shots last season
OTT · expected (depth chart)

Linus Ullmark

Goalie rating 1529 (above the league middle) · -5.9 saved above expected on 1805 shots last season
Projected lineups · Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts · as of 2026-09-28

Expected lines

What each club intends per the feed's depth chart, with each forward's shooter rating (Elo, against the goalies faced last season). A listing is the club's statement, not a game sheet.

MTL

Montréal Canadiens

Head coach Martin St. Louis

L1 Cole Caufield (top tenth of the league) · Nick Suzuki (above the league middle) · Chris Kreider (below the league middle)

L2 Juraj Slafkovský (above the league middle) · Oliver Kapanen (above the league middle) · Ivan Demidov (above the league middle)

L3 Alex Newhook (top tenth of the league) · Phillip Danault (bottom tenth of the league) · Josh Anderson (below the league middle)

D1 Mike Matheson (above the league middle) · Noah Dobson (above the league middle)

D2 Jayden Struble · Lane Hutson (above the league middle)

PP1 Juraj Slafkovský (above the league middle) · Nick Suzuki (above the league middle) · Ivan Demidov (above the league middle) · Cole Caufield (top tenth of the league) · Lane Hutson (above the league middle)

OTT

Ottawa Senators

Head coach Travis Green

L1 William Eklund (bottom tenth of the league) · Tim Stutzle (above the league middle) · Fabian Zetterlund (above the league middle)

L2 Andre Burakovsky (below the league middle) · Dylan Cozens (below the league middle) · Drake Batherson (top tenth of the league)

L3 Ridly Greig (below the league middle) · Shane Pinto (below the league middle) · Michael Amadio (above the league middle)

D1 Jake Sanderson (top tenth of the league) · Artem Zub (above the league middle)

D2 Thomas Chabot (above the league middle) · Jordan Spence (above the league middle)

PP1 Drake Batherson (top tenth of the league) · Tim Stutzle (above the league middle) · Dylan Cozens (below the league middle) · Jake Sanderson (top tenth of the league) · William Eklund (bottom tenth of the league)

Injury listings · as of 2026-09-29

Who the clubs list as out

Club-announced listings relayed by the licensed feed. No cause is inferred; Day To Day players are shown but not counted as out.

MTL · 1 out

Montréal Canadiens

Kaiden Guhle (D): Out (adductor), listed since 2026-09-16, expected back 2026-10-17

OTT · 0 out

Ottawa Senators

Nobody listed.

Goals · the league's own clips

7 goals

Each goal links to the league's clip on its own site. Nothing is rehosted.

MTL · P1 03:49 · B. Berard (H. McKown, S. Pastujov)

OTT · P1 09:16 · C. Giroux (T. Chabot, A. Burakovsky) · PP

OTT · P2 10:31 · D. Batherson (J. Sanderson, C. Giroux) · PP

OTT · P2 11:12 · C. Yakemchuk (A. Burakovsky, C. Giroux) · PP

MTL · P3 05:19 · A. Belzile (J. Struble)

MTL · P3 07:05 · S. Pastujov

OTT · P3 10:57 · W. Eklund (D. Cozens, T. Stützle) · PP

Replay review once the condensed game has been read · Ledger