Returning regular · 2025-26
Dominic Toninato
Chicago Blackhawks · C · — shot · age 32 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- CHI
- Lane
- C
- Age
- 32
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
7 C regulars in CHI
The all-team median is 7. CHI’s farm system ranks #2 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Tonight · 10:30 p.m. ET
CHI at VGK
Projected slot from the licensed depth chart; props from the model's learned layer on shots, finishing and the opposing starter; ratings are last season's until this one has enough games. Information, not a recommendation.
Latest move: The Chicago Blackhawks waived F Dominic Toninato. (2026-09-28).
White noise · as of 2026-09-29 · social 2026-09-29
Dominic Toninato is in the middle of the pack for attention (50th percentile); attention this week is 2.08× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: 4 posts named him this week on Bluesky · 14 likes, reposts and replies · no baseline yet, it needs a week of readings.
Contract · CHI
Cap hit not published
2025–26 through 2026–27. Certified
Career arc · era-adjusted points per 82 games
Dominic Toninato, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (80% band), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: quantile regression (10th/50th/90th) of qualifying seasons on an age spline, weighted for players who drop out.
What the numbers found
- Exceeded ceiling chance at the draft of going this far past the projection: 10%
Projection at the draft: 0 NHL hours through age 25 expected (80% band 0-9); he logged 14, above the 90th percentile.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected 0 NHL hours through his age-25 season (80% band 0 to 9). He logged 14 hours, above the 90th percentile.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | 23 | 37 | 4.3 | 12.3 to 72.5 |
| 2018-19 | 24 | 2 | 39.2 | −42.0 to 66.5 |
| 2019-20 | 25 | 46 | 18.8 | −6.5 to 34.5 |
| 2020-21 | 26 | 2 | 40.3 | −36.8 to 71.8 |
| 2021-22 | 27 | 77 | 13.6 | −0.7 to 36.3 |
| 2022-23 | 28 | 5 | 14.9 | −23.5 to 48.8 |
| 2023-24 | 29 | 15 | 25.3 | −14.1 to 35.7 |
| 2024-25 | 30 | 5 | 0.0 | −24.1 to 50.5 |
| 2025-26 | 31 | 8 | 9.5 | −24.3 to 39.0 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-09-29
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 29 to 32
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 16 High-MN 0.61 → age 17 UMHSEL 0.79 → age 18 UMHSEL 1.04 → age 19 USHL 1.09 → age 20 NCAA 0.43 → age 21 NCAA 0.77 → age 22 NCAA 0.53 → age 23 NCAA 0.69 → age 24 NHL 0.05 → age 25 AHL 0.51 → age 26 NHL 0.24 → age 28 NHL 0.18 → age 29 AHL 0.70 → age 30 NHL 0.33 → age 31 AHL 0.60 → age 32 AHL 0.83
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Nic DowdC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32 | 0.07 | age 33 NHL 0.34 → age 34 NHL 0.33 → age 35 NHL 0.29 |
| Casey CizikasC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32 | 0.08 | age 33 NHL 0.33 → age 34 NHL 0.21 → age 35 NHL 0.22 |
| Garnet HathawayR · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32 | 0.09 | age 33 NHL 0.31 → age 34 NHL 0.04 |
| Justin DowlingC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32 | 0.10 | age 33 AHL 0.32 → age 34 NHL 0.14 → age 35 AHL 0.29 |
| Noel AcciariC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32 | 0.14 | age 33 NHL 0.15 → age 34 NHL 0.37 |
| Sam CarrickC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32 | 0.14 | age 33 NHL 0.25 → age 34 NHL 0.17 |
| Nicolas DeslauriersL · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32 | 0.15 | age 33 NHL 0.07 → age 34 NHL 0.10 → age 35 NHL 0.04 |
| Brandon TanevL · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32 | 0.16 | age 33 NHL 0.28 → age 34 NHL 0.05 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Roster moves · as of 2026-09-28
Latest club announcements
Waivers, claims, injured reserve, the minors and signings as the club announced them (Sportradar NHL API v7, league transfers feed; licensed feed (30-day trial)). No cause is read into an injured-reserve placement.
2026-09-28 · placed on waivers · The Chicago Blackhawks waived F Dominic Toninato.
Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.