Returning regular · 2025-26
Anton Frondell
Chicago Blackhawks · C · L shot · age 19 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- CHI
- Lane
- C
- Age
- 19
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
7 C regulars in CHI
The all-team median is 7. CHI’s farm system ranks #2 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Tonight · 10:30 p.m. ET
CHI at VGK
Projected slot from the licensed depth chart; props from the model's learned layer on shots, finishing and the opposing starter; ratings are last season's until this one has enough games. Information, not a recommendation.
Nothing listed against Anton Frondell.
White noise · as of 2026-09-29 · social 2026-09-29
Anton Frondell is talked about more than most (82th percentile); attention this week is 2.53× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: 11 posts named him this week on Bluesky · 22 likes, reposts and replies · no baseline yet, it needs a week of readings.
Latest from the league: Stanley Cup Playoffs this season 'first step' for Blackhawks, Frondell says (2026-09-03)
Contract · CHI
$0.97M cap hit
2025–26 through 2027–28. Certified
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.756). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
Advanced scoring · 2025-26
Goals, assists and plus/minus, weighted by what they changed
Every goal counts the win probability it added, scaled so the average goal is 1.0: a late tying goal counts several, a goal at 6-1 or into an empty net late counts little. Plus/minus also credits the players on the ice when the goal's sequence began.
From the video · model judgement
What the condensed games showed
Read from the league's free condensed games (1 game so far): entries, exits, battles and turnovers the model could see and attribute to his jersey number. A condensed game is a sample of the game, so these are observations, not season counts.
Career arc · era-adjusted points per 82 games
Anton Frondell, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (80% band), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: quantile regression (10th/50th/90th) of qualifying seasons on an age spline, weighted for players who drop out.
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected 141 NHL hours through his age-25 season (80% band 98 to 173). He logged 4 hours, below the 10th percentile. The model was applied to his draft class without being fitted or tested on it.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 | 12 | 56.8 | 8.0 to 78.4 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-09-29
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 15 to 18
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 14 U16 Div.1 1.87 → age 15 J18 Region 1.60 → age 16 J20 Nationell 1.34 → age 17 J20 Nationell 0.70 → age 18 NHL 0.75
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Max McCueC · matched at ages 15, 16, 17 | 0.07 | age 19 OHL 0.15 → age 20 OHL 0.19 → age 21 OHL 0.28 → age 22 AHL 0.08 → age 23 AHL 0.14 |
| McKade WebsterL · matched at ages 15, 16, 17 | 0.07 | age 19 USHL 0.25 → age 20 NCAA 0.16 → age 21 NCAA 0.14 → age 22 NCAA 0.18 → age 23 NCAA 0.28 |
| Felix TrudeauL · matched at ages 15, 16, 17 | 0.08 | age 19 BCHL 0.25 → age 20 NCAA 0.11 → age 21 NCAA 0.08 → age 22 NCAA 0.37 → age 23 NCAA 0.47 |
| Santeri SulkuLW · matched at ages 15, 16, 17 | 0.10 | age 19 Mestis 0.15 → age 21 Liiga 0.33 |
| Jayden GrubbeC · matched at ages 15, 16, 17 | 0.10 | age 19 WHL 0.14 → age 20 WHL 0.29 → age 21 AHL 0.10 → age 22 AHL 0.10 → age 23 ECHL 0.24 |
| Logan MorrisonC · matched at ages 15, 16, 17 | 0.10 | age 19 OHL 0.47 → age 20 OHL 0.46 → age 21 AHL 0.29 → age 22 AHL 0.27 → age 23 AHL 0.41 |
| Patrick KaneR · matched at ages 15, 16, 17, 18 | 0.10 | age 19 NHL 0.88 → age 20 NHL 0.88 → age 21 NHL 1.07 → age 22 NHL 1.00 → age 23 NHL 0.81 |
| William NylanderR · matched at ages 15, 16, 17, 18 | 0.11 | age 19 NHL 0.59 → age 20 NHL 0.75 → age 21 NHL 0.74 → age 22 NHL 0.50 → age 23 NHL 0.87 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Club listings · licensed feeds
What the club lists him as
An injury listing and a projected slot are the club's statements relayed by a licensed feed, shown with their dates. CapOrCup infers nothing from them.
Projected slot · line 2 centre, first power-play unit (CHI depth chart as of 2026-09-28; Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts)
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.