Advanced goals, assists, plus/minus
Goals and assists weighted by the win probability each added; plus/minus credited to everyone on the ice at the goal or at the start of its sequence.
Ce que vaut une avance, d'après les matchs de la saison dernière
Les chances de victoire du club local selon l'écart au pointage et les minutes restantes : la table à laquelle chaque but est comparé.
Buts avancés
Premières mentions d'aide avancées
Différentiel avancé
Advanced goals, assists, plus/minus
Definition. Goals and assists weighted by the win probability each added; plus/minus credited to everyone on the ice at the goal or at the start of its sequence.
Inputs. goals (measured), events (measured), shifts (measured). Built from. Goal record, a win-probability table by score and time, play-by-play, shift charts.
Reliability.
Not measured yet: .
Validity.
Not measured yet: .
Uncertainty.
Not measured yet: .
Shrinkage.
Bias ledger.
Not measured yet: .
Sensitivity.
Limits. Win probability uses score and time only; clutch repeats weakly year to year.
Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.