Prospect formula

Definition. Production percentile within league × league ladder × age factor, plus real NHL production. Draft position does not enter it. A second column, Score with draft position (prospect-pick-blend-v1, adopted 2026-09-29), shows for ages 18-20 only: 45% the score percentile + 55% the draft pick percentile, each against same-age lines in the 2010-2015 classes.

Inputs. other-leagues (measured), ladder (derived), draft (measured). Built from. Season histories in every league; a measured ladder where ten or more players moved.

Constants. age factor = 1.00 at 18, −0.06 a year to 0.58 at 25+ (d'où vient ce nombre) (hand-set; to be replaced by an empirical curve (d'où vient ce nombre)); ladder = measured where n ≥ 10, else default (d'où vient ce nombre); blend weight on pick = 0.55 (ages 18-20 only) (d'où vient ce nombre) (one weight fitted on classes 2010-2015, judged once on 2016-2018 (gain +0.165 Spearman, 95% [+0.127, +0.203]); adopted by owner, hub card 149367 (d'où vient ce nombre)).

Reliability.

Not measured yet: not among the measured reliabilities (d'où vient ce nombre).

Validity.

On whole draft classes 2010 to 2018, the formula at 18 ranks NHL games through age 23 at 0.448 against 0.605 for draft position (draft position ranks better on the same players); at 20 it is 0.606, no detectable difference. (d'où vient ce nombre)

Formula at 18

0.448 (d'où vient ce nombre) · rank correlation with NHL games through 23; 95% range 0.406 to 0.487; 1,695 skaters (d'où vient ce nombre)

Formula at 19

0.530 (d'où vient ce nombre) · 95% range 0.489 to 0.566 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Formula at 20

0.606 (d'où vient ce nombre) · 95% range 0.570 to 0.640 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Draft position

0.605 (d'où vient ce nombre) · same outcome, skaters; 95% range 0.570 to 0.635 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Formula minus draft position, at 18

−0.159 (d'où vient ce nombre) · same players; 95% range −0.203 to −0.113 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Formula minus draft position, at 20

+0.001 (d'où vient ce nombre) · same players; 95% range −0.040 to +0.041 (d'où vient ce nombre)

Every pick, goalies included

0.588 (d'où vient ce nombre) · draft position alone; 1,902 of 1,903 picks (d'où vient ce nombre)

Graduated by 23, first and last round

72.7% and 1.5% (d'où vient ce nombre) · round 1: 197 of 271; round 7: 4 of 271 (d'où vient ce nombre)

The full study.

Uncertainty.

Not measured yet: no bootstrap intervals for this measure (bands exist for Drive, its offence and defence splits, and RAPM) (d'où vient ce nombre).

Shrinkage.

shown raw; shrinkage is for rates whose sampling variance dominates (d'où vient ce nombre)

Bias ledger.

Not measured yet: not among the audited measures (d'où vient ce nombre).

Sensitivity.

Not measured yet: sensitivity sweep not run for this measure yet (d'où vient ce nombre).

Limits. Measured translations use only players who moved (survivorship). The whole-class backtest under Validity (in full at /integrity#study-prospects) is the test of how well it ranks careers. Before 20 the formula alone ranks careers worse than draft position; the blend column is the better ranking there, and is blank for undrafted players and anyone outside 18-20.

Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.