Final · All games

SJS 4 – 2 VGK

San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights. Final. The model's pre-game price is kept below as recorded.

Model
VGK 72%
Expected score
2.5 – 3.7
Market
—
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Pre-game price

What the model says

Lineups not yet published: each club's usual lineup assumed. Starting goalie not confirmed: goaltending held at league average.

VGK win72%SJS 28%
FinishesVGK reg 59% · OT/SO 13%SJS reg 19% · OT/SO 10%
Most likely finalsSJS 2–3 VGK (8%) · SJS 1–4 VGK (7%) · SJS 2–5 VGK (7%)
Ledgermorning 72% VGKlineups 76% · hash d2d01f41e6
Club ratings (Elo)VGK 1489 · SJS 1470by results; last season's, until this one has enough games

Source: CapOrCup game model (derived from club ratings, rest and starters)

Starters · depth chart 2026-09-28

In goal

The league names no starter before puck drop. First on each club's depth chart, from the licensed feed, is the expected starter.

SJS · expected (depth chart)

Yaroslav Askarov

Goalie rating 1441 (bottom tenth of the league) · -14.7 saved above expected on 1988 shots last season
VGK · expected (depth chart)

Carter Hart

Goalie rating 1503 (above the league middle) · -2.4 saved above expected on 645 shots last season
Projected lineups · Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts · as of 2026-09-28

Expected lines

What each club intends per the feed's depth chart, with each forward's shooter rating (Elo, against the goalies faced last season). A listing is the club's statement, not a game sheet.

SJS

San Jose Sharks

Head coach Ryan Warsofsky

L1 Mason Marchment (above the league middle) · Macklin Celebrini (top tenth of the league) · Will Smith (top tenth of the league)

L2 Ivar Stenberg · Alexander Wennberg (above the league middle) · Collin Graf (above the league middle)

L3 Tyler Toffoli (below the league middle) · Michael Misa (above the league middle) · Igor Chernyshov (above the league middle)

D1 Sam Dickinson (below the league middle) · Jacob Trouba (above the league middle)

D2 Darnell Nurse (above the league middle) · Michael Kesselring (below the league middle)

PP1 Igor Chernyshov (above the league middle) · Alexander Wennberg (above the league middle) · Will Smith (top tenth of the league) · Macklin Celebrini (top tenth of the league) · Luca Cagnoni

VGK

Vegas Golden Knights

Head coach Ryan Craig

L1 Ivan Barbashev (above the league middle) · Jack Eichel (above the league middle) · Mark Stone (above the league middle)

L2 Brett Howden (above the league middle) · William Karlsson · Mitch Marner (top tenth of the league)

L3 Trevor Connelly · Tomas Hertl (bottom tenth of the league) · Victor Olofsson (below the league middle)

D1 Brayden McNabb (above the league middle) · Shea Theodore (above the league middle)

D2 Parker Wotherspoon (above the league middle) · Rasmus Andersson (top tenth of the league)

PP1 Mark Stone (above the league middle) · Tomas Hertl (bottom tenth of the league) · Mitch Marner (top tenth of the league) · Jack Eichel (above the league middle) · Shea Theodore (above the league middle)

Injury listings · as of 2026-09-29

Who the clubs list as out

Club-announced listings relayed by the licensed feed. No cause is inferred; Day To Day players are shown but not counted as out.

SJS · 0 out

San Jose Sharks

Nobody listed.

VGK · 0 out

Vegas Golden Knights

Nobody listed.

Goals · the league's own clips

6 goals

Each goal links to the league's clip on its own site. Nothing is rehosted.

SJS · P1 19:20 · D. Orlov (M. Celebrini, A. Wennberg) · PP · clip

SJS · P2 06:45 · M. Celebrini (W. Smith, M. Marchment) · clip

VGK · P2 17:24 · T. Hertl (S. Theodore, C. Hart) · PP · clip

VGK · P3 03:18 · N. Dowd (B. Howden, I. Barbashev) · clip

SJS · P3 09:47 · M. Marchment (D. Nurse) · clip

SJS · P3 14:54 · M. Misa (I. Chernyshov, T. Toffoli) · clip

Replay review once the condensed game has been read · Ledger