Career arc

Definition. A player's level season by season against what his own earlier seasons and his age predicted (an 80% band from a regression-to-the-mean forecaster), the position's aging curve corrected for players who leave the league, career labels (flash in the pan, sustained breakout, late bloomer, exceeded ceiling at the draft) each with the share of re-measurements in which it holds, and the draft-time projection of NHL ice time through age 25.

Inputs. season records (measured), draft records (measured), league ladder (derived), aging curves (derived). Built from. NHL season records 2000-01 to 2025-26 (points, games, time on ice, saves and shots), birth dates, draft records and pre-NHL lines translated by the league ladder; tools/assay/py/careers/run.py.

Constants. spike = z >= 2.0 against the forecast from earlier seasons, with 2+ earlier qualifying seasons (where this number comes from) (registered before any data were read (careers-label-flash-v1) (where this number comes from)); flash / sustained / late-bloomer thresholds = z <= 1.0 / >= 1.5 / >= 1.5 (where this number comes from) (registered before any data were read (careers-label-*-v1) (where this number comes from)); re-measurements = 200 (where this number comes from) (the label probability is the share of 200 parametric redraws of the seasons in which the rule still fires (where this number comes from)); forecaster fit = seasons up to 2018-19 (where this number comes from) (later seasons are the held-out test (where this number comes from)).

Reliability.

Not measured yet: not among the measured reliabilities (where this number comes from).

Validity.

Each label was tested on seasons after 2018-19 against a pre-registered rule. Shipped for skaters: flash in the pan, sustained breakout, late bloomer and exceeded ceiling (draft). (where this number comes from)

Shipped

flash in the pan, sustained breakout, late bloomer, exceeded ceiling (draft) (where this number comes from) · skaters; goalie labels were tested separately (where this number comes from)

Not shipped

7 (where this number comes from) · early peak (F); early peak (D); flash in the pan (G); sustained breakout (G); late bloomer (G); early peak (G); exceeded ceiling (draft) (G) (where this number comes from)

The full study.

Uncertainty.

On the held-out draft classes 2015-2018, 10.4% landed above the draft projection's 90th percentile (10% expected) and 13.7% of 124 with a non-zero floor below its 10th. (where this number comes from)

At the draft

10.4% (where this number comes from) · above the 90th; shipped (where this number comes from)

At 20

20.9% (where this number comes from) · below the 10th; not shipped (where this number comes from)

At 22

20.2% (where this number comes from) · below the 10th; not shipped (where this number comes from)

The full study.

Shrinkage.

shown raw; shrinkage is for rates whose sampling variance dominates (where this number comes from)

Bias ledger.

Not measured yet: not among the audited measures (where this number comes from).

Sensitivity.

Not measured yet: sensitivity sweep not run for this measure yet (where this number comes from).

Limits. Labels describe a run of seasons, not a person, and ship only where they passed on held-out seasons: early peak, fell short, projections at 20 and 22, and every goalie label did not. Goalie birth dates cover about a third of goalie shots, so the goalie curve is thin and is not used to set any goalie's expected level.

Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.