Head to head (Elo)
A rating for every contest the data records, moved by who was actually faced.
Skaters, 5-on-5
chance share against the five he faced; linemates share credit
Shooters vs goalies
goals against the goalies and chances actually faced
Goalies vs shooters
saves against the shooters and chances actually faced
Faceoffs
winner against loser on every draw
Power play
PP skaters against the penalty-killers faced; league rate expected goals per 60
Penalty kill
penalty-killers against the power-play units faced
Shot lanes
shooter against the five defenders on the ice: through or blocked
Lane defence (unit)
the five defenders against every shooter faced; shared credit
Clubs
Every game against the opponent's rating: by result (win or loss) and by expected-goal share.
Head to head (Elo)
Definition. A rating for every contest the data records, moved by who was actually faced.
Inputs. shifts (measured), events (measured), shots (measured). Built from. Shift charts, play-by-play, the expected-goals model, in game order from 1500.
Constants. K = (); start = .
Reliability.
Not measured yet: .
Validity.
Not measured yet: .
Uncertainty.
Not measured yet: .
Shrinkage.
Bias ledger.
Not measured yet: .
Sensitivity.
Not measured yet: .
Depends on. expected goals (trained 2023-24, 2024-25, tested 2025-26, AUC ) · model card
Limits. Order-dependent; linemates share credit in on-ice ratings.
Signed by Chief of measures (data desk); weekly card review; full assay each season; last assay 2026-10-18; test record.