Josh Manson
Colorado Avalanche · RD · shoots R · 34 · UFA at expiry
Contract, value & projections
- Paid
- 3.8% of the cap · through 2027–28 · the contract
- Worth
- 5.0% of the cap · Cup: paid under the market
- Next
- Not on file (not projected yet)
- Drive (3 seasons)
- points of chance share lost with him on · what this is#442Josh Manson Drive rank: 80% rank range 287 to 538 of 678 Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 287th to 538th.
Tonight · Final · COL 3–4 NJD as of 11:32 p.m. ET
COL at NJD
Projected slot from the licensed depth chart; props from the model's learned layer on shots, finishing and the opposing starter; ratings are last season's until this one has enough games. Information, not a recommendation.
Nothing listed against Josh Manson.
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
RD regulars in COL
The all-team median is . COL’s farm system sits #32 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
White noise · as of 2026-10-18 · social 2026-10-18
Josh Manson is talked about more than most (74th percentile); attention this week is 5× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: .
Contract · COL
cap hit
2026–27 through 2027–28 · UFA at expiry. Certified
Both signals › Cheaper than his position's median cost per point AND drives five-on-five scoring or kills penalties.
Measures · 2025–26 · 80% rank ranges
Where Josh Manson ranks, and how sure we are
Each rank is the 10th to 90th percentile of his place when every skater's value is redrawn 1,000 times from his own band. One season rarely separates a player from the dozens around him.
- #442#287 to #538 of 678
Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 287th to 538th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
4 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #61#22 to #286 of 678
Likely a top-125 skater; anywhere from 22nd to 286th.
In 4 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
19 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #524#188 to #698 of 744
Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 188th to 698th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
2 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #176#69 to #410 of 678
Likely a top-250 skater; anywhere from 69th to 410th.
In fewer than 1 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
16 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #55#21 to #317 of 678
Likely a top-125 skater; anywhere from 21st to 317th.
In 5 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
18 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC ). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Advanced scoring · 2025-26
Goals, assists and plus/minus, weighted by what they changed
Every goal counts the win probability it added, scaled so the average goal is 1.0: a late tying goal counts several, a goal at 6-1 or into an empty net late counts little. Plus/minus also credits the players on the ice when the goal's sequence began.
Shot map · 2025-26
Where he shoots from, and how it goes
Every unblocked shot placed by distance, angle and shot type. His rate from each spot is set against the league's rate for the same shot from the same spot, so the edge is against everyone else taking that shot, not against an average.
Other spots he uses: .
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Career arc ·
Josh Manson, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: .
What the numbers found
- Flash in the pan holds in of re-measurements
- Late bloomer holds in of re-measurements
- Exceeded ceiling chance at the draft of going this far past the projection:
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected through his age-25 season (80% band ). He logged , above the 90th percentile.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | ||||
| 2015-16 | ||||
| 2016-17 | ||||
| 2017-18 | ||||
| 2018-19 | ||||
| 2019-20 | ||||
| 2020-21 | ||||
| 2021-22 | ||||
| 2022-23 | ||||
| 2023-24 | ||||
| 2024-25 | ||||
| 2025-26 | ||||
| 2026-27 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-10-18
Club listings · licensed feeds
What the club lists him as
An injury listing and a projected slot are the club's statements relayed by a licensed feed, shown with their dates. CapOrCup infers nothing from them.
Projected slot · (COL depth chart as of 2026-10-12; Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts)
Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: points per 60 in the ten games before, in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far:
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonaghD · matched at ages | ||
| Tyler MyersD · matched at ages | ||
| Chris TanevD · matched at ages | ||
| Ian ColeD · matched at ages | ||
| Jared SpurgeonD · matched at ages | ||
| Vladimir DraveckyD · matched at ages | ||
| Luke SchennD · matched at ages | ||
| Drew DoughtyD · matched at ages |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Fit components (description)
Josh Manson: role, system and coach, as measured
What the shift charts say about Josh Manson's role and his club's game, and what the rules allow. No fit number is shown: fit: not yet validated.
Rules that travel with him: blocked. Club-specific rules (50 contracts, 23-man roster, the two front offices) are on each team's Moves tab.
- Trade protection: Not on file. clause not confirmed. CBA Art. 11.8(a)
- Waiver exemption: blocked. signed at 21: past 3 seasons or 80 NHL games (now season 14, 705 games). CBA Art. 13.4
as of 2026-04-16