Pavel Buchnevich
St. Louis Blues · LW · shoots L · 31
Contract, value & projections
- Paid
- 7.7% of the cap · through 2030–31 · the contract
- Worth
- 5.5% of the cap · Cap: paid at or above the market
- Next
- Not on file (not projected yet)
- Drive (3 seasons)
- points of chance share added with him on · what this is#107Pavel Buchnevich Drive rank: 80% rank range 56 to 261 of 678 Likely a top-150 skater; anywhere from 56th to 261st.
Tonight STL do not play · next league date 2026-10-24
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
LW regulars in STL
The all-team median is . STL’s farm system sits #11 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
White noise · as of 2026-10-18 · social 2026-10-18
Pavel Buchnevich is talked about more than most (77th percentile); attention this week is 3.53× his usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: .
Latest from the league: Buchnevich returns to St. Louis for birth of his child (2026-10-15)
Contract · STL
cap hit
2025–26 through 2030–31. Certified
Cup signal › Costs more per point than the position median, but earns it with five-on-five creation or penalty-kill work.
Measures · 2025–26 · 80% rank ranges
Where Pavel Buchnevich ranks, and how sure we are
Each rank is the 10th to 90th percentile of his place when every skater's value is redrawn 1,000 times from his own band. One season rarely separates a player from the dozens around him.
- #107#56 to #261 of 678
Likely a top-150 skater; anywhere from 56th to 261st.
In fewer than 1 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #427#178 to #594 of 678
Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 178th to 594th.
In fewer than 1 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
8 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #384#144 to #644 of 744
Likely a top-400 skater; anywhere from 144th to 644th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
4 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #181#72 to #444 of 678
Likely a top-250 skater; anywhere from 72nd to 444th.
In fewer than 1 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
16 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #616#320 to #653 of 678
Likely a top-600 skater; anywhere from 320th to 653rd.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
2 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC ). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Advanced scoring · 2025-26
Goals, assists and plus/minus, weighted by what they changed
Every goal counts the win probability it added, scaled so the average goal is 1.0: a late tying goal counts several, a goal at 6-1 or into an empty net late counts little. Plus/minus also credits the players on the ice when the goal's sequence began.
Shot map · 2025-26
Where he shoots from, and how it goes
Every unblocked shot placed by distance, angle and shot type. His rate from each spot is set against the league's rate for the same shot from the same spot, so the edge is against everyone else taking that shot, not against an average.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Career arc ·
Pavel Buchnevich, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: .
What the numbers found
- Exceeded ceiling chance at the draft of going this far past the projection:
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected through his age-25 season (80% band ). He logged , above the 90th percentile.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | ||||
| 2017-18 | ||||
| 2018-19 | ||||
| 2019-20 | ||||
| 2020-21 | ||||
| 2021-22 | ||||
| 2022-23 | ||||
| 2023-24 | ||||
| 2024-25 | ||||
| 2025-26 | ||||
| 2026-27 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-10-18
Club listings · licensed feeds
What the club lists him as
An injury listing and a projected slot are the club's statements relayed by a licensed feed, shown with their dates. CapOrCup infers nothing from them.
Projected slot · (STL depth chart as of 2026-10-12; Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts)
Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: points per 60 in the ten games before, in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far:
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler SeguinC · matched at ages | ||
| Bryan RustR · matched at ages | ||
| Jonathan MarchessaultC · matched at ages | ||
| Tomas HertlC · matched at ages | ||
| Jamie BennL · matched at ages | ||
| Taylor HallL · matched at ages | ||
| Ryan StromeC · matched at ages | ||
| Sean CouturierC · matched at ages |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Fit components (description)
Pavel Buchnevich: role, system and coach, as measured
What the shift charts say about Pavel Buchnevich's role and his club's game, and what the rules allow. No fit number is shown: fit: not yet validated.
Rules that travel with him: blocked. Club-specific rules (50 contracts, 23-man roster, the two front offices) are on each team's Moves tab.
- Trade protection: blocked. no-trade clause: the trade needs his consent. CBA Art. 11.8(a)
- Waiver exemption: blocked. signed at 21: past 3 seasons or 80 NHL games (now season 11, 674 games). CBA Art. 13.4
as of 2026-04-16