Nikita Grebenkin
Philadelphia Flyers · RW · shoots L · 23
Contract, value & projections
- Paid
- 1.1% of the cap · through 2027–28 · the contract
- Worth
- 1.9% of the cap · Cup: paid under the market
- Next
- Not on file (not projected yet)
- Drive (3 seasons)
- points of chance share lost with him on · what this is#473Nikita Grebenkin Drive rank: 80% rank range 187 to 635 of 678 Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 187th to 635th.
Tonight · 7:30 p.m. ET
PHI at WSH
Projected slot from the licensed depth chart; props from the model's learned layer on shots, finishing and the opposing starter; ratings are last season's until this one has enough games. Information, not a recommendation.
Listed: . The club's word; the model does not use it yet.
Latest move: The Philadelphia Flyers placed F Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve. (2026-10-05).
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
RW regulars in PHI
The all-team median is . PHI’s farm system sits #17 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
White noise · as of 2026-10-18 · social 2026-10-18
Nikita Grebenkin is quiet (25th percentile)
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: .
Contract · PHI
cap hit
2026–27 through 2027–28. Certified
Cap signal › Cheaper than his position's median cost per point, but his five-on-five rate and penalty-kill use are below the line.
Measures · 2025–26 · 80% rank ranges
Where Nikita Grebenkin ranks, and how sure we are
Each rank is the 10th to 90th percentile of his place when every skater's value is redrawn 1,000 times from his own band. One season rarely separates a player from the dozens around him.
- #473#187 to #635 of 678
Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 187th to 635th.
In fewer than 1 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
6 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #472#207 to #618 of 678
Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 207th to 618th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
7 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #324#201 to #495 of 744
Likely a top-400 skater; anywhere from 201st to 495th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
2 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #441#205 to #609 of 678
Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 205th to 609th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
7 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #426#160 to #602 of 678
Likely a top-500 skater; anywhere from 160th to 602nd.
In fewer than 1 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
8 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC ). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Advanced scoring · 2025-26
Goals, assists and plus/minus, weighted by what they changed
Every goal counts the win probability it added, scaled so the average goal is 1.0: a late tying goal counts several, a goal at 6-1 or into an empty net late counts little. Plus/minus also credits the players on the ice when the goal's sequence began.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Career arc ·
Nikita Grebenkin, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: .
What the numbers found
No shipped label applies. A label is a measured finding about a run of seasons (for example, a spike that came back to the old level), and it is shown only for label types that passed their test on held-out seasons.
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected through his age-25 season (80% band ). He logged , between the median and the 90th percentile. The model was applied to his draft class without being fitted or tested on it.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | ||||
| 2025-26 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-10-18
Club listings · licensed feeds
What the club lists him as
An injury listing and a projected slot are the club's statements relayed by a licensed feed, shown with their dates. CapOrCup infers nothing from them.
Injury listing · (as of 2026-10-18; Sportradar NHL API v7, league injuries feed)
Roster moves · as of 2026-10-17
Latest club announcements
Waivers, claims, injured reserve, the minors and signings as the club announced them (Sportradar NHL API v7, league transfers feed; licensed feed (30-day trial)). No cause is read into an injured-reserve placement.
2026-10-05 · placed on injured reserve · The Philadelphia Flyers placed F Nikita Grebenkin on injured reserve.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far:
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Jason ZuckerL · matched at ages | ||
| Nicolas RoyC · matched at ages | ||
| Xavier SimoneauC · matched at ages | ||
| Justin SourdifC · matched at ages | ||
| Taylor RaddyshR · matched at ages | ||
| Akil ThomasC · matched at ages | ||
| Brett HowdenC · matched at ages | ||
| Cody GlassC · matched at ages |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Fit components (description)
Nikita Grebenkin: role, system and coach, as measured
What the shift charts say about Nikita Grebenkin's role and his club's game, and what the rules allow. No fit number is shown: fit: not yet validated.
Rules that travel with him: passes. Club-specific rules (50 contracts, 23-man roster, the two front offices) are on each team's Moves tab.
- Trade protection: passes. not yet eligible for a clause (CBA 11.8(a)). CBA Art. 11.8(a)
- Waiver exemption: passes. signed at 21: exempt through 3 seasons or 80 NHL games (now season 3, 62 games). CBA Art. 13.4
as of 2026-04-16