Nikita Kucherov
Tampa Bay Lightning · RW · shoots L · 33 · UFA at expiry
Contract, value & projections
- Paid
- 9.1% of the cap · through 2026–27 · the contract
- Worth
- 13.5% of the cap · Cup: paid under the market
- Next
- Not on file (not projected yet)
- Drive (3 seasons)
- points of chance share added with him on · what this is#24Nikita Kucherov Drive rank: 80% rank range 15 to 87 of 678 Likely a top-40 skater; anywhere from 15th to 87th.
Tonight TBL do not play · next league date 2026-10-23
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
RW regulars in TBL
The all-team median is . TBL’s farm system sits #29 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
White noise · as of 2026-10-18 · social 2026-10-18
Nikita Kucherov is talked about more than most (88th percentile); attention is up on the usual
How much he is being talked about: the league's own stories tagged to him, daily pageviews of his Wikipedia article against his own 90-day baseline, posts naming him on the connected networks (Bluesky), and the roster moves and listings that make noise. A measure of attention. Whether it affects a player is his business, and a question the history will let us test later.
Social: .
Contract · TBL
cap hit
2019–20 through 2026–27 · UFA at expiry. Certified
Both signals › Cheaper than his position's median cost per point AND drives five-on-five scoring or kills penalties.
Measures · 2025–26 · 80% rank ranges
Where Nikita Kucherov ranks, and how sure we are
Each rank is the 10th to 90th percentile of his place when every skater's value is redrawn 1,000 times from his own band. One season rarely separates a player from the dozens around him.
- #24#15 to #87 of 678
Likely a top-40 skater; anywhere from 15th to 87th.
In 3 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #34#16 to #251 of 678
Likely a top-100 skater; anywhere from 16th to 251st.
In 5 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
19 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #16#6 to #142 of 744
Likely a top-40 skater; anywhere from 6th to 142nd.
In 19 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
19 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #4#2 to #53 of 678
Likely a top-15 skater; anywhere from 2nd to 53rd.
In 49 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
20 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20). - #589#303 to #646 of 678
Likely a top-600 skater; anywhere from 303rd to 646th.
In 0 of 100 seasons like this one, he finishes in the top ten.
3 of 20 dots sit above zero (the average regular). Each dot is one equally likely outcome (1 in 20).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC ). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Advanced scoring · 2025-26
Goals, assists and plus/minus, weighted by what they changed
Every goal counts the win probability it added, scaled so the average goal is 1.0: a late tying goal counts several, a goal at 6-1 or into an empty net late counts little. Plus/minus also credits the players on the ice when the goal's sequence began.
Shot map · 2025-26
Where he shoots from, and how it goes
Every unblocked shot placed by distance, angle and shot type. His rate from each spot is set against the league's rate for the same shot from the same spot, so the edge is against everyone else taking that shot, not against an average.
Other spots he uses: .
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Career arc ·
Nikita Kucherov, season by season
Each dot is one season. The amber bar is what his earlier seasons and his age predicted for that season (), so a dot far above its bar is a season the numbers did not see coming. The shaded band is where most players at his position sit at each age.
Position band: .
What the numbers found
- Flash in the pan holds in of re-measurements
- Sustained breakout holds in of re-measurements
- Exceeded ceiling chance at the draft of going this far past the projection:
Projection at the draft
At the draft the model expected through his age-25 season (80% band ). He logged , above the 90th percentile.
Every season
| Season | Age | GP | Level | Expected (80%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | ||||
| 2014-15 | ||||
| 2015-16 | ||||
| 2016-17 | ||||
| 2017-18 | ||||
| 2018-19 | ||||
| 2019-20 | ||||
| 2021-22 | ||||
| 2022-23 | ||||
| 2023-24 | ||||
| 2024-25 | ||||
| 2025-26 | ||||
| 2026-27 |
Source: CapOrCup careers desk (method and league curves) · as of 2026-10-18
Club listings · licensed feeds
What the club lists him as
An injury listing and a projected slot are the club's statements relayed by a licensed feed, shown with their dates. CapOrCup infers nothing from them.
Projected slot · (TBL depth chart as of 2026-10-12; Sportradar NHL API v7, team depth charts)
Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far:
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Artemi PanarinL · matched at ages | ||
| Brad MarchandL · matched at ages | ||
| Patrick KaneR · matched at ages | ||
| Sidney CrosbyC · matched at ages | ||
| Steven StamkosC · matched at ages | ||
| Evgeni MalkinC · matched at ages | ||
| John TavaresC · matched at ages | ||
| Alex OvechkinL · matched at ages |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Fit components (description)
Nikita Kucherov: role, system and coach, as measured
What the shift charts say about Nikita Kucherov's role and his club's game, and what the rules allow. No fit number is shown: fit: not yet validated.
Rules that travel with him: blocked. Club-specific rules (50 contracts, 23-man roster, the two front offices) are on each team's Moves tab.
- Trade protection: blocked. no-trade clause: the trade needs his consent. CBA Art. 11.8(a)
- Waiver exemption: blocked. signed at 20: past 3 seasons or 160 NHL games (now season 13, 879 games). CBA Art. 13.4
as of 2026-04-16