Returning regular · 2025-26
Olli Maatta
Minnesota Wild · LD · L shot · age 32 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- MIN
- Lane
- LD
- Age
- 32
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
4 LD regulars in MIN
The all-team median is 4. MIN’s farm system ranks #26 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract · MIN
$3.50M cap hit
2025–26 through 2027–28 · UFA at expiry. Reported
Cup signal › Costs more per point than the position median, but earns it with five-on-five creation or penalty-kill work.
- He kills penalties (1:19 a night), which points do not capture.
- Defencemen are compared only with defencemen. Points understate defensive value, so the on-ice impact measures on each player page carry the rest: the expected goals created and allowed while he plays, and the goals whose sequence began on his shift. The impact model in a later phase addresses that.
- 18 real points at this cap hit would pass the cost test (he had 14).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 28 to 31
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 16 Finland-2 0.26 → age 17 OHL 0.55 → age 18 OHL 0.67 → age 19 NHL 0.37 → age 20 NHL 0.45 → age 21 NHL 0.28 → age 22 NHL 0.13 → age 23 NHL 0.35 → age 24 NHL 0.23 → age 25 NHL 0.26 → age 26 NHL 0.10 → age 27 NHL 0.12 → age 28 NHL 0.29 → age 29 NHL 0.25 → age 30 NHL 0.26 → age 31 NHL 0.04
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Scott MayfieldD · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.05 | age 32 NHL 0.14 → age 33 NHL 0.19 |
| Jamie OleksiakD · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.08 | age 32 NHL 0.21 → age 33 NHL 0.19 |
| Radko GudasD · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.09 | age 32 NHL 0.24 → age 33 NHL 0.27 → age 34 NHL 0.20 → age 35 NHL 0.23 |
| Connor MurphyD · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.09 | age 32 NHL 0.28 → age 33 NHL 0.22 |
| Chris TanevD · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.09 | age 32 NHL 0.34 → age 33 NHL 0.20 → age 34 NHL 0.25 → age 35 NHL 0.24 → age 36 NHL 0.18 |
| Jaycob MegnaD · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.10 | age 32 AHL 0.11 → age 33 AHL 0.08 |
| Zach BogosianD · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.10 | age 32 NHL 0.11 → age 33 NHL 0.23 → age 34 NHL 0.20 → age 35 NHL 0.15 |
| Joel HanleyD · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.11 | age 32 NHL 0.09 → age 33 NHL 0.17 → age 34 NHL 0.10 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: 0 points per 60 in the ten games before, 1.19 in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.