Returning regular · 2025-26

Vinnie Hinostroza

Colorado Avalanche · C · R shot · age 32 at the dated snapshot.

Team: COL
Lane: C
Age: 32

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games65

Goals6

Assists12

Points18

Even strength16all even-strength points

Power play2

Short handed0

Empty net1

5v5 points / 601.346

Average TOI10:56

PP TOI0:28

PK TOI0:00

Organizational context

10 C regulars in COL

The all-team median is 7. COL’s farm system ranks #32 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots104

Expected goals6.86.5% per shot

Goals6

Finishing−0.8goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality43%2.94 expected goals for and 3.97 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)-9 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)0.8 xG5 primary assists; 0.16 expected goals per pass on average, 0.069 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence-0.31expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-0.90expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts51%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)weak / averageteammates -2.5, opponents -0.5 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)295 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for67 for, 71 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal2his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 11.6 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 3his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 30 games

LinematesRyan Hartman, Marcus Folignoshared 29% and 29% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup46% vs first lines46% against the other club's first line (sheltered)

Shutdown (drive, defence, deployment removed)-1.13offence the same way -0.52; zone starts and opponent quality removed by a league-wide fit

Real points181 empty-net point left out · 7 goals, 5 primary and 7 secondary assists · 2 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 29 to 32

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons6 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.33median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 14 T1EMBHL 0.97 → age 15 USHS-IL 1.13 → age 16 T1EHL 1.00 → age 17 USHL 0.44 → age 18 USHL 0.80 → age 19 USHL 1.30 → age 20 NCAA 0.94 → age 21 NCAA 1.05 → age 22 AHL 0.77 → age 23 NHL 0.29 → age 24 NHL 0.50 → age 25 NHL 0.54 → age 26 NHL 0.32 → age 27 NHL 0.71 → age 28 NHL 0.40 → age 29 NHL 0.42 → age 30 NHL 0.21 → age 31 NHL 0.15 → age 32 NHL 0.21

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Sam CarrickC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32	0.05	age 33 NHL 0.25 → age 34 NHL 0.17
Casey CizikasC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32	0.08	age 33 NHL 0.33 → age 34 NHL 0.21 → age 35 NHL 0.22
Garnet HathawayR · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32	0.10	age 33 NHL 0.31 → age 34 NHL 0.04
Nicolas DeslauriersL · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32	0.11	age 33 NHL 0.07 → age 34 NHL 0.10 → age 35 NHL 0.04
Tyler PitlickC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32	0.12	age 33 AHL 0.35 → age 34 NHL 0.06
Justin DowlingC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32	0.14	age 33 AHL 0.32 → age 34 NHL 0.14 → age 35 AHL 0.29
Noel AcciariC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32	0.16	age 33 NHL 0.15 → age 34 NHL 0.37
Nic DowdC · matched at ages 29, 30, 31, 32	0.16	age 33 NHL 0.34 → age 34 NHL 0.33 → age 35 NHL 0.29

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

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