Returning regular · 2025-26
Nick Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs · LW · L shot · age 31 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- TOR
- Lane
- LW
- Age
- 31
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
2 LW regulars in TOR
The all-team median is 4. TOR’s farm system ranks #16 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract · TOR
$3.15M cap hit
2023–24 through 2029–30. Certified
Role question › Costs more per point than the position median and is below the line on five-on-five creation and penalty-kill use. Either the contract or the deployment needs a look.
- He averaged 13:41 a night on a $3.15M cap hit. Part of this reading is deployment, not only the player.
- 26 real points at this cap hit would pass the cost test (he had 14, after 1 empty-net left out).
- A five-on-five rate of 1.68 per 60 (he had 1.24) or a regular penalty-kill role (1:00+ a night) would pass the Cup side.
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 28 to 31
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 16 GTHL 0.68 → age 17 GTHL 1.73 → age 18 OHL 0.42 → age 19 OHL 0.69 → age 20 OHL 1.14 → age 21 NHL 0.21 → age 22 AHL 0.51 → age 23 NHL 0.09 → age 24 NHL 0.10 → age 25 NHL 0.36 → age 26 NHL 0.36 → age 27 NHL 0.30 → age 28 NHL 0.40 → age 29 NHL 0.56 → age 30 NHL 0.54 → age 31 NHL 0.29
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Conor ShearyL · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.05 | age 32 AHL 0.47 → age 33 NHL 0.29 |
| Marcus FolignoL · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.06 | age 32 NHL 0.40 → age 33 NHL 0.38 → age 34 NHL 0.23 |
| Brandon TanevL · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.08 | age 32 NHL 0.24 → age 33 NHL 0.28 → age 34 NHL 0.05 |
| Jean-Gabriel PageauC · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.09 | age 32 NHL 0.53 → age 33 NHL 0.47 |
| Jordan StaalC · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.11 | age 32 NHL 0.72 → age 33 NHL 0.46 → age 34 NHL 0.42 → age 35 NHL 0.38 → age 36 NHL 0.48 |
| Jaden SchwartzC · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.12 | age 32 NHL 0.60 → age 33 NHL 0.52 |
| Nick FolignoL · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.12 | age 32 NHL 0.46 → age 33 NHL 0.38 → age 34 NHL 0.20 → age 35 NHL 0.43 → age 36 NHL 0.50 |
| Stefan NoesenR · matched at ages 28, 29, 30, 31 | 0.13 | age 32 NHL 0.53 → age 33 NHL 0.18 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: 1.06 points per 60 in the ten games before, 0 in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.