Returning regular · 2025-26
Jake Middleton
Calgary Flames · LD · L shot · age 30 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- CGY
- Lane
- LD
- Age
- 30
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
4 LD regulars in CGY
The all-team median is 4. CGY’s farm system ranks #4 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract · CGY
$4.35M cap hit
2025–26 through 2028–29 · UFA at expiry. Certified
Cup signal › Costs more per point than the position median, but earns it with five-on-five creation or penalty-kill work.
- He kills penalties (1:59 a night), which points do not capture.
- Defencemen are compared only with defencemen. Points understate defensive value, so the on-ice impact measures on each player page carry the rest: the expected goals created and allowed while he plays, and the goals whose sequence began on his shift. The impact model in a later phase addresses that.
- 22 real points at this cap hit would pass the cost test (he had 14, after 2 empty-net left out).
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 27 to 30
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 16 Minor-ON 0.92 → age 17 OHL 0.07 → age 18 OHL 0.35 → age 19 OHL 0.42 → age 20 OHL 0.46 → age 21 AHL 0.18 → age 22 AHL 0.42 → age 23 AHL 0.33 → age 24 NHL 0.20 → age 25 AHL 0.32 → age 26 NHL 0.20 → age 27 NHL 0.19 → age 28 NHL 0.31 → age 29 NHL 0.31 → age 30 NHL 0.21
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Ian ColeD · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30 | 0.02 | age 31 NHL 0.40 → age 32 NHL 0.15 → age 33 NHL 0.25 → age 34 NHL 0.22 → age 35 NHL 0.14 |
| Scott MayfieldD · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30 | 0.05 | age 31 NHL 0.12 → age 32 NHL 0.14 → age 33 NHL 0.19 |
| Radko GudasD · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30 | 0.05 | age 31 NHL 0.21 → age 32 NHL 0.24 → age 33 NHL 0.27 → age 34 NHL 0.20 → age 35 NHL 0.23 |
| Brett KulakD · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30 | 0.06 | age 31 NHL 0.30 → age 32 NHL 0.07 |
| Brian DumoulinD · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30 | 0.06 | age 31 NHL 0.30 → age 32 NHL 0.20 → age 33 NHL 0.26 → age 34 NHL 0.21 |
| Chris TanevD · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30 | 0.07 | age 31 NHL 0.21 → age 32 NHL 0.34 → age 33 NHL 0.20 → age 34 NHL 0.25 → age 35 NHL 0.24 |
| Josh MansonD · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30 | 0.07 | age 31 NHL 0.37 → age 32 NHL 0.33 → age 33 NHL 0.31 → age 34 NHL 0.39 |
| Vladimir DraveckyD · matched at ages 27, 28, 30 | 0.07 | age 31 Czechia 0.25 → age 32 Czechia 0.17 → age 33 Czechia 0.12 → age 34 Czechia 0.16 → age 35 Czechia 0.06 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.