Returning regular · 2025-26
Noah Gregor
Winnipeg Jets · LW · L shot · age 28 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- WPG
- Lane
- LW
- Age
- 28
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
4 LW regulars in WPG
The all-team median is 4. WPG’s farm system ranks #22 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract · WPG
$0.85M cap hit
2026–27 through 2026–27. Reported
Cap signal › Cheaper than his position's median cost per point, but his five-on-five rate and penalty-kill use are below the line.
- He did not reach the five-on-five sample (20 games and 10:00 a night at five-on-five), so the rate test cannot pass.
- At 0.8% of the cap, almost any NHL production is surplus.
- Falling below 7 points at this cap hit would drop the cost test.
- A five-on-five rate of 1.68 per 60 (he had no qualifying sample) or a regular penalty-kill role (1:00+ a night) would pass the Cup side.
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 24 to 27
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 13 AMBHL 0.83 → age 14 AMBHL 2.27 → age 15 AMHL 1.46 → age 16 WHL 0.60 → age 17 WHL 1.01 → age 18 WHL 1.17 → age 19 WHL 1.20 → age 20 WHL 1.40 → age 21 NHL 0.18 → age 22 NHL 0.20 → age 23 NHL 0.36 → age 24 NHL 0.30 → age 25 NHL 0.19 → age 26 NHL 0.15 → age 27 NHL 0.24
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Michael McCarronC · matched at ages 24, 25, 27 | 0.03 | age 28 NHL 0.13 → age 29 NHL 0.31 → age 30 NHL 0.19 → age 31 NHL 0.20 |
| Eduards TralmaksR · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27 | 0.03 | age 28 Czechia 0.48 → age 29 AHL 0.30 |
| Sam LaffertyC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27 | 0.04 | age 28 NHL 0.41 → age 29 NHL 0.30 → age 30 NHL 0.12 → age 31 NHL 0.07 |
| Spencer SmallmanR · matched at ages 25, 26, 27 | 0.04 | age 28 AHL 0.25 → age 29 AHL 0.21 |
| Dylan GambrellC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27 | 0.05 | age 28 AHL 0.21 → age 29 AHL 0.47 |
| Kevin StenlundC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27 | 0.05 | age 28 NHL 0.34 → age 29 NHL 0.23 |
| Garnet HathawayR · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27 | 0.06 | age 28 NHL 0.24 → age 29 NHL 0.32 → age 30 NHL 0.34 → age 31 NHL 0.27 → age 32 NHL 0.21 |
| Kiefer SherwoodL · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27 | 0.06 | age 28 NHL 0.41 → age 29 NHL 0.40 → age 30 NHL 0.51 → age 31 NHL 0.52 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
Either side of that absence: 1.59 points per 60 in the ten games before, 2.06 in the ten after. A rate change over a small sample, not evidence of a lingering injury.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.