Returning regular · 2025-26
Jeffrey Viel
Tampa Bay Lightning · LW · L shot · age 29 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- TBL
- Lane
- LW
- Age
- 29
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
2 LW regulars in TBL
The all-team median is 4. TBL’s farm system ranks #29 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract · TBL
$2.50M cap hit
2026–27 through 2030–31 · UFA at expiry. Certified
Role question › Costs more per point than the position median and is below the line on five-on-five creation and penalty-kill use. Either the contract or the deployment needs a look.
- Cost and production both sit close to his position's median. Nothing unusual drives this reading.
- 20 real points at this cap hit would pass the cost test (he had 9, after 1 empty-net left out).
- A five-on-five rate of 1.68 per 60 (he had 1.04) or a regular penalty-kill role (1:00+ a night) would pass the Cup side.
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 26 to 29
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 14 RICBAA 0.55 → age 15 RICBAA 0.76 → age 16 QMAAA 0.46 → age 17 QMAAA 1.07 → age 18 QMJHL 0.28 → age 19 QMJHL 0.85 → age 20 QMJHL 0.95 → age 21 QMJHL 1.07 → age 22 AHL 0.32 → age 23 AHL 0.56 → age 24 NHL 0.00 → age 25 NHL 0.15 → age 26 AHL 0.52 → age 27 AHL 0.58 → age 28 AHL 0.54 → age 29 NHL 0.00
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| Cameron LundC · matched at ages 26, 27, 28 | 0.06 | age 30 ACH 0.32 → age 31 ACH 0.14 |
| Ryan LombergL · matched at ages 26, 27, 28, 29 | 0.08 | age 30 NHL 0.16 → age 31 NHL 0.16 |
| Ross JohnstonL · matched at ages 26, 27, 28, 29 | 0.12 | age 30 NHL 0.06 → age 31 NHL 0.09 → age 32 NHL 0.23 |
| Kurtis MacDermidL · matched at ages 26, 27, 28, 29 | 0.13 | age 30 NHL 0.07 → age 31 NHL 0.00 → age 32 NHL 0.05 |
| Radek FaksaC · matched at ages 26, 27, 28, 29 | 0.13 | age 30 NHL 0.26 → age 31 NHL 0.21 → age 32 NHL 0.29 |
| Zachary Aston-ReeseL · matched at ages 26, 27, 28, 29 | 0.13 | age 30 NHL 0.21 → age 31 NHL 0.18 |
| Justin DowlingC · matched at ages 26, 27, 28, 29 | 0.13 | age 30 NHL 0.18 → age 31 NHL 0.18 → age 32 AHL 0.37 → age 33 AHL 0.32 → age 34 NHL 0.14 |
| Jordan MartinookL · matched at ages 26, 27, 28, 29 | 0.13 | age 30 NHL 0.41 → age 31 NHL 0.39 → age 32 NHL 0.46 → age 33 NHL 0.38 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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Availability
Games missed
The NHL publishes no injury feed. This counts games his club played while he did not dress, for any reason: injury, illness, a healthy scratch, a suspension or a trade gap. No cause is claimed.
NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.