Returning regular · 2025-26

Eeli Tolvanen

New York Rangers · RW · L shot · age 27 at the dated snapshot.

Team: NYR
Lane: RW
Age: 27

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games78

Goals12

Assists24

Points36

Even strength22all even-strength points

Power play14

Short handed0

Empty net4

5v5 points / 600.979

Average TOI16:03

PP TOI1:50

PK TOI1:02

Organizational context

6 RW regulars in NYR

The all-team median is 3.5. NYR’s farm system ranks #15 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots209

Expected goals15.07.2% per shot

Goals12

Finishing−3.0goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality44%2.97 expected goals for and 3.74 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)-2 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)2.17 xG15 primary assists; 0.145 expected goals per pass on average, 0.107 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence+0.30expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-0.68expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts52%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)average / averageteammates -0.8, opponents +0.9 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)484 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for88 for, 112 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal1his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 20.4 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 3his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 27 games

LinematesChandler Stephenson, Frederick Gaudreaushared 68% and 30% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup60% vs first lines60% of his time against the other club's first line (hard matchups)

Shutdown (drive, defence, deployment removed)-0.25offence the same way +0.67; zone starts and opponent quality removed by a league-wide fit

Real points324 empty-net points left out · 12 goals, 15 primary and 9 secondary assists · 14 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 23 to 26

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons8 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.71median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 14 Jr. B SM-sarja 0.60 → age 15 Jr. B SM-sarja 2.05 → age 16 USHL 0.78 → age 17 USHL 1.04 → age 18 KHL 0.73 → age 19 AHL 0.60 → age 20 AHL 0.57 → age 21 NHL 0.55 → age 22 NHL 0.31 → age 23 NHL 0.31 → age 24 NHL 0.51 → age 25 NHL 0.43 → age 26 NHL 0.46

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Mikael BacklundC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.05	age 27 NHL 0.57 → age 28 NHL 0.65 → age 29 NHL 0.55 → age 30 NHL 0.61 → age 31 NHL 0.64
Bryan RustR · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.06	age 27 NHL 1.02 → age 28 NHL 0.75 → age 29 NHL 0.97 → age 30 NHL 0.57 → age 31 NHL 0.90
Ross ColtonC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.07	age 27 NHL 0.50 → age 28 NHL 0.47 → age 29 NHL 0.33
Ryan DonatoC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.07	age 27 NHL 0.39 → age 28 NHL 0.78 → age 29 NHL 0.37
Joel ArmiaR · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.08	age 27 NHL 0.34 → age 28 NHL 0.23 → age 29 NHL 0.33 → age 30 NHL 0.38 → age 31 NHL 0.36
Nick FolignoL · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.08	age 27 NHL 0.92 → age 28 NHL 0.51 → age 29 NHL 0.65 → age 30 NHL 0.46 → age 31 NHL 0.48
Lawson CrouseL · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.09	age 27 NHL 0.22 → age 28 NHL 0.54
Vinnie HinostrozaC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.09	age 27 NHL 0.71 → age 28 NHL 0.40 → age 29 NHL 0.42 → age 30 NHL 0.21 → age 31 NHL 0.15

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

Atlantic

Metropolitan

Central

Pacific