Returning regular · 2025-26

Paul Cotter

Vancouver Canucks · LW · L shot · age 26 at the dated snapshot.

Team: VAN
Lane: LW
Age: 26

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games79

Goals9

Assists6

Points15

Even strength14all even-strength points

Power play1

Short handed0

Empty net0

5v5 points / 600.663

Average TOI10:41

PP TOI0:10

PK TOI0:01

Organizational context

5 LW regulars in VAN

The all-team median is 4. VAN’s farm system ranks #14 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots106

Expected goals8.47.9% per shot

Goals9

Finishing+0.6goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality46%3.02 expected goals for and 3.57 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)-7 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)0.32 xG2 primary assists; 0.161 expected goals per pass on average, 0.023 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence-0.34expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-0.52expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts47%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)weak / averageteammates -5.6, opponents +0.1 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)160 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for63 for, 93 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal1his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 13.8 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 4his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 33 games

LinematesConnor Brown, Stefan Noesenshared 23% and 16% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup41% vs first lines41% against the other club's first line (sheltered)

Shutdown (drive, defence, deployment removed)-0.48offence the same way -0.30; zone starts and opponent quality removed by a league-wide fit

Real points170 empty-net points left out · 11 goals, 2 primary and 4 secondary assists · 1 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 23 to 26

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons7 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.42median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 13 HPMBHL 1.24 → age 14 HPBHL 0.59 → age 16 HPHL 16U 0.83 → age 17 NAHL 1.02 → age 18 USHL 0.77 → age 19 OHL 0.54 → age 20 AHL 0.16 → age 21 AHL 0.42 → age 22 AHL 0.58 → age 23 NHL 0.33 → age 24 NHL 0.33 → age 25 NHL 0.28 → age 26 NHL 0.19

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Jason DickinsonC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.01	age 27 NHL 0.39 → age 28 NHL 0.43 → age 29 NHL 0.27 → age 30 NHL 0.28
Kevin StenlundC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.02	age 27 NHL 0.18 → age 28 NHL 0.34 → age 29 NHL 0.23
Eduards TralmaksR · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.02	age 27 Czechia 0.28 → age 28 Czechia 0.48 → age 29 AHL 0.30
Sam LaffertyC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.03	age 27 NHL 0.20 → age 28 NHL 0.41 → age 29 NHL 0.30 → age 30 NHL 0.12 → age 31 NHL 0.07
Keegan KolesarR · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.03	age 27 NHL 0.37 → age 28 NHL 0.21
Mitchell ChaffeeR · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.04	age 27 NHL 0.27 → age 28 NHL 0.09
Marcus FolignoL · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.06	age 27 NHL 0.23 → age 28 NHL 0.42 → age 29 NHL 0.67 → age 30 NHL 0.57 → age 31 NHL 0.32
Barclay GoodrowC · matched at ages 23, 24, 25, 26	0.06	age 27 NHL 0.39 → age 28 NHL 0.36 → age 29 NHL 0.42 → age 30 NHL 0.38 → age 31 NHL 0.15

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

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