Returning regular · 2025-26

John Beecher

Florida Panthers · C · L shot · age 25 at the dated snapshot.

Team: FLA
Lane: C
Age: 25

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games35

Goals3

Assists4

Points7

Even strength5all even-strength points

Power play0

Short handed2

Empty net0

5v5 points / 600.988

Average TOI10:26

PP TOI0:04

PK TOI1:35

Organizational context

9 C regulars in FLA

The all-team median is 7. FLA’s farm system ranks #30 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots53

Expected goals3.56.6% per shot

Goals3

Finishing−0.5goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality38%2.7 expected goals for and 4.45 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)-10 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)0.27 xG2 primary assists; 0.134 expected goals per pass on average, 0.044 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence-0.23expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-1.27expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts54%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)average / averageteammates -1.9, opponents +0.8 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)135 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for30 for, 30 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal0his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 6.1 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 4his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 30 games

LinematesAdam Klapka, Ryan Lombergshared 61% and 41% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup39% vs first lines39% against the other club's first line (sheltered)

Real points70 empty-net points left out · 3 goals, 2 primary and 2 secondary assists · 0 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 21 to 24

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons4 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.32median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 15 USHS-Prep 0.80 → age 16 USHL 0.73 → age 17 USHL 0.74 → age 18 NCAA 0.52 → age 19 NCAA 0.50 → age 20 NCAA 0.44 → age 21 AHL 0.38 → age 22 NHL 0.19 → age 23 NHL 0.14 → age 24 NHL 0.21

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Liam O'BrienC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.04	age 25 AHL 0.22 → age 26 NHL 0.25 → age 27 NHL 0.08 → age 28 NHL 0.20 → age 29 NHL 0.19
Pavel KarnaukhovL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.04	age 25 KHL 0.27 → age 26 KHL 0.37 → age 27 KHL 0.32 → age 28 KHL 0.23 → age 29 KHL 0.30
Brian HalonenL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.04	age 25 AHL 0.38 → age 26 AHL 0.29 → age 27 NHL 0.13
Juha JaaskaL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.04	age 25 Liiga 0.32 → age 26 Liiga 0.26 → age 27 NHL 0.22
Kyle MacLeanC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.04	age 25 NHL 0.14 → age 26 NHL 0.12
MacKenzie EntwistleR · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.05	age 26 AHL 0.10
Oskar BäckC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.05	age 25 NHL 0.22 → age 26 NHL 0.17
Jeff MalottL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.05	age 25 AHL 0.30 → age 26 AHL 0.28 → age 27 AHL 0.34 → age 28 NHL 0.08 → age 29 NHL 0.15

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

Atlantic

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Pacific