Returning regular · 2025-26

Connor McMichael

St. Louis Blues · LW · L shot · age 25 at the dated snapshot.

Team: STL
Lane: LW
Age: 25

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games78

Goals14

Assists32

Points46

Even strength40all even-strength points

Power play5

Short handed1

Empty net3

5v5 points / 602.216

Average TOI16:54

PP TOI1:37

PK TOI2:03

Organizational context

6 LW regulars in STL

The all-team median is 4. STL’s farm system ranks #11 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots199

Expected goals20.010.0% per shot

Goals14

Finishing−6.0goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality48%3.8 expected goals for and 4.09 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)-2 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)3.78 xG21 primary assists; 0.18 expected goals per pass on average, 0.18 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence+0.56expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-0.91expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts50%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)average / toughteammates -0.1, opponents +1.3 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)557 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for120 for, 93 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal1his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 21 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 2his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 24 games

LinematesRyan Leonard, Tom Wilsonshared 40% and 26% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup62% vs first lines62% of his time against the other club's first line (hard matchups)

Shutdown (drive, defence, deployment removed)-0.31offence the same way +1.10; zone starts and opponent quality removed by a league-wide fit

Real points413 empty-net points left out · 14 goals, 21 primary and 9 secondary assists · 5 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 22 to 25

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons8 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.83median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 16 ETAHL U16 1.82 → age 17 OHL 0.31 → age 18 OHL 1.07 → age 19 OHL 1.96 → age 20 AHL 0.82 → age 21 NHL 0.27 → age 22 AHL 0.68 → age 23 NHL 0.41 → age 24 NHL 0.69 → age 25 NHL 0.59

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Jack RoslovicC · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.02	age 26 NHL 0.57 → age 27 NHL 0.57 → age 28 NHL 0.48 → age 29 NHL 0.52
Tyler BertuzziL · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.07	age 27 NHL 0.91 → age 28 NHL 0.48 → age 29 NHL 0.54 → age 30 NHL 0.56 → age 31 NHL 0.73
J.T. MillerC · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.07	age 26 NHL 0.63 → age 27 NHL 1.04 → age 28 NHL 0.87 → age 29 NHL 1.24 → age 30 NHL 1.01
Andrew MangiapaneL · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.08	age 26 NHL 0.52 → age 27 NHL 0.53 → age 28 NHL 0.35 → age 29 NHL 0.27
Owen TippettR · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.08	age 26 NHL 0.56 → age 27 NHL 0.63
Jared McCannL · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.09	age 26 NHL 0.89 → age 27 NHL 0.78 → age 28 NHL 0.74 → age 29 NHL 0.77
Joel Eriksson EkC · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.09	age 26 NHL 0.78 → age 27 NHL 0.83 → age 28 NHL 0.63 → age 29 NHL 0.73
Ilya MikheyevR · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.10	age 26 NHL 0.32 → age 27 NHL 0.60 → age 28 NHL 0.61 → age 29 NHL 0.40 → age 30 NHL 0.42

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

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