All 776 players Pittsburgh Penguins desk

Returning regular · 2025-26

Nick Robertson

Pittsburgh Penguins · LW · L shot · age 25 at the dated snapshot.

Team: PIT
Lane: LW
Age: 25

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games78

Goals16

Assists16

Points32

Even strength28all even-strength points

Power play4

Short handed0

Empty net0

5v5 points / 601.85

Average TOI12:40

PP TOI1:06

PK TOI0:05

Organizational context

3 LW regulars in PIT

The all-team median is 4. PIT’s farm system ranks #20 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots185

Expected goals13.87.5% per shot

Goals16

Finishing+2.2goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality47%3.33 expected goals for and 3.74 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)+3 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)0.96 xG9 primary assists; 0.107 expected goals per pass on average, 0.059 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence+0.44expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-0.12expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts51%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)average / averageteammates -0.4, opponents -0.0 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)406 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for88 for, 103 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal1his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 16.3 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 3his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 37 games

LinematesNicolas Roy, Easton Cowanshared 30% and 22% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup45% vs first lines45% against the other club's first line (sheltered)

Shutdown (drive, defence, deployment removed)-0.14offence the same way +0.42; zone starts and opponent quality removed by a league-wide fit

Real points320 empty-net points left out · 16 goals, 9 primary and 7 secondary assists · 4 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 21 to 24

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons6 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.47median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 13 HPMBHL 1.19 → age 15 GTHL U16 1.13 → age 16 OHL 0.53 → age 17 OHL 1.02 → age 18 OHL 1.87 → age 19 AHL 0.76 → age 20 NHL 0.10 → age 21 NHL 0.33 → age 22 NHL 0.48 → age 23 NHL 0.32 → age 24 NHL 0.41

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Alex FormentonL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.05	age 26 NL 0.30
Jonathan MarchessaultC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.05	age 25 NHL 0.40 → age 26 NHL 0.68 → age 27 NHL 0.97 → age 28 NHL 0.72 → age 29 NHL 0.71
Nick AbruzzeseC · matched at ages 22, 23, 24	0.05	age 25 AHL 0.28 → age 26 AHL 0.41
Mark JankowskiL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.06	age 25 NHL 0.13 → age 26 NHL 0.24 → age 27 NHL 0.26 → age 28 NHL 0.24 → age 29 NHL 0.47
Colin WhiteC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.06	age 25 NHL 0.42 → age 26 NHL 0.22 → age 27 NHL 0.00 → age 28 AHL 0.24 → age 29 AHL 0.47
Miles WoodL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.06	age 25 NHL 0.46 → age 27 NHL 0.35 → age 28 NHL 0.35 → age 29 NHL 0.22 → age 30 NHL 0.26
Alexandre TexierL · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.06	age 25 NHL 0.35 → age 26 NHL 0.47
Linus KarlssonC · matched at ages 21, 22, 23, 24	0.07	age 25 NHL 0.26 → age 26 NHL 0.44

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

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