Returning regular · 2025-26

Joel Kiviranta

Dallas Stars · LW · L shot · age 30 at the dated snapshot.

Team: DAL
Lane: LW
Age: 30

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games51

Goals3

Assists6

Points9

Even strength9all even-strength points

Power play0

Short handed0

Empty net0

5v5 points / 601.161

Average TOI10:22

PP TOI0:04

PK TOI1:03

Organizational context

3 LW regulars in DAL

The all-team median is 4. DAL’s farm system ranks #31 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots72

Expected goals5.88.1% per shot

Goals3

Finishing−2.8goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality55%3.3 expected goals for and 2.7 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)-1 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)0.18 xG2 primary assists; 0.089 expected goals per pass on average, 0.021 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence-0.51expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence+0.31expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts49%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)weak / averageteammates -2.8, opponents +0.8 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)132 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for48 for, 36 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal1his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 8.6 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 4his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 31 games

LinematesParker Kelly, Jack Druryshared 66% and 54% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup46% vs first lines46% against the other club's first line (sheltered)

Shutdown (drive, defence, deployment removed)+0.69offence the same way -0.16; zone starts and opponent quality removed by a league-wide fit

Real points90 empty-net points left out · 3 goals, 2 primary and 4 secondary assists · 0 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 27 to 30

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons4 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.34median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 15 Jr. C SM-sarja 0.73 → age 16 Jr. B SM-sarja 0.60 → age 17 Jr. A SM-liiga 0.50 → age 18 Jr. A SM-liiga 0.97 → age 19 Liiga 0.28 → age 20 Liiga 0.25 → age 21 Liiga 0.36 → age 22 Liiga 0.63 → age 23 Liiga 0.65 → age 24 NHL 0.09 → age 25 NHL 0.42 → age 26 NHL 0.13 → age 27 NHL 0.13 → age 28 NHL 0.16 → age 29 NHL 0.29 → age 30 NHL 0.18

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Mackenzie MacEachernL · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30	0.06	age 31 AHL 0.36 → age 32 AHL 0.17
Nicolas DeslauriersL · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30	0.07	age 31 NHL 0.16 → age 32 NHL 0.15 → age 33 NHL 0.07 → age 34 NHL 0.10 → age 35 NHL 0.04
Dominik ShineR · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30	0.08	age 31 AHL 0.34 → age 32 NHL 0.17
Radek FaksaC · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30	0.09	age 31 NHL 0.21 → age 32 NHL 0.29
Scott SabourinR · matched at ages 27, 29, 30	0.09	age 31 AHL 0.21 → age 32 AHL 0.17 → age 33 NHL 0.19
Dominic ToninatoC · matched at ages 28, 29, 30	0.09	age 31 AHL 0.27 → age 32 AHL 0.38
Justin DowlingC · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30	0.10	age 31 NHL 0.18 → age 32 AHL 0.37 → age 33 AHL 0.32 → age 34 NHL 0.14 → age 35 AHL 0.29
Kurtis MacDermidL · matched at ages 27, 28, 29, 30	0.10	age 31 NHL 0.00 → age 32 NHL 0.05

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

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