Returning regular · 2025-26
Declan Carlile
Pittsburgh Penguins · LD · L shot · age 26 at the dated snapshot.
- Team
- PIT
- Lane
- LD
- Age
- 26
Production and deployment
How the points were built
Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.
Organizational context
2 LD regulars in PIT
The all-team median is 4. PIT’s farm system ranks #20 in the maintained two-board consensus.
Questions a GM still has to answer
- How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
- Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
- Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
- What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?
Contract
No contract for this player has been sourced yet. CapOrCup does not estimate it.
Shot quality · 2025-26
Expected goals
CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.
CapOrCup measures · 2025-26
What happens while he plays
Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.
Comparables at the same age
Who looked like this at 22 to 25
Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.
This player so far: age 13 HPHL 13U 0.26 → age 14 HPHL 14U 0.53 → age 17 OJHL 0.72 → age 18 USHL 0.44 → age 19 NCAA 0.65 → age 20 NCAA 0.71 → age 21 AHL 0.30 → age 22 AHL 0.35 → age 23 AHL 0.44 → age 24 AHL 0.29 → age 25 NHL 0.07
| Player | Distance (lower is closer) | What he did afterwards |
|---|---|---|
| William LagessonD · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25 | 0.03 | age 26 NHL 0.13 → age 27 AHL 0.22 → age 28 NHL 0.13 → age 29 AHL 0.18 → age 30 AHL 0.16 |
| Justin HollD · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25 | 0.03 | age 26 AHL 0.21 → age 27 NHL 0.09 → age 28 NHL 0.27 → age 29 NHL 0.36 → age 30 NHL 0.33 |
| Marshall RifaiD · matched at ages 22, 24, 25 | 0.04 | age 26 AHL 0.15 → age 27 AHL 0.09 → age 28 AHL 0.11 |
| Steven SantiniD · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25 | 0.05 | age 27 AHL 0.12 → age 28 AHL 0.07 → age 29 AHL 0.14 → age 30 AHL 0.13 → age 31 NHL 0.08 |
| Ilya LyubushkinD · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25 | 0.05 | age 26 NHL 0.05 → age 27 NHL 0.20 → age 28 NHL 0.21 → age 29 NHL 0.07 → age 30 NHL 0.17 |
| Logan MaillouxD · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25 | 0.05 | age 26 EIHL 0.09 → age 27 EIHL 0.05 → age 28 Erste Liga 0.15 → age 29 EIHL 0.05 |
| Jacob BrysonD · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25 | 0.05 | age 26 NHL 0.22 → age 27 NHL 0.15 → age 28 NHL 0.14 |
| Tomas GalvasD · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25 | 0.05 | age 26 Czech2 0.16 → age 27 Czech2 0.14 → age 29 Czech2 0.12 → age 30 Czech2 0.08 → age 31 Czech2 0.14 |
Reading it
If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.
Goal archive ·
Every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
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NHL EDGE tracking · 2025-26
Speed, shot and ice
From the NHL's own player-tracking data. Percentiles are the NHL's: the share of the league below this player.