Returning regular · 2025-26

Maxim Tsyplakov

Calgary Flames · RW · L shot · age 28 at the dated snapshot.

Team: CGY
Lane: RW
Age: 28

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games49

Goals2

Assists2

Points4

Even strength4all even-strength points

Power play0

Short handed0

Empty net0

5v5 points / 600.549

Average TOI9:07

PP TOI0:07

PK TOI0:00

Organizational context

4 RW regulars in CGY

The all-team median is 3.5. CGY’s farm system ranks #4 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots71

Expected goals4.56.4% per shot

Goals2

Finishing−2.5goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality50%3.29 expected goals for and 3.36 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)-1 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)0.3 xG2 primary assists; 0.15 expected goals per pass on average, 0.042 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence-0.14expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-0.01expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts46%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)weak / averageteammates -2.6, opponents +0.1 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)93 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for31 for, 45 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal2his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 7.2 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 4his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 34 games

LinematesCasey Cizikas, Nick Bjugstadshared 36% and 27% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup43% vs first lines43% against the other club's first line (sheltered)

Real points40 empty-net points left out · 2 goals, 2 primary and 0 secondary assists · 0 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 24 to 27

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons6 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.45median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 16 Russia U17 0.86 → age 17 MHL 0.29 → age 18 MHL 0.47 → age 19 KHL 0.00 → age 20 KHL 0.29 → age 21 KHL 0.21 → age 22 KHL 0.29 → age 23 KHL 0.32 → age 24 KHL 0.40 → age 25 KHL 0.72 → age 26 NHL 0.46 → age 27 NHL 0.07

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Nick BjugstadC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27	0.06	age 28 NHL 0.39 → age 29 NHL 0.23 → age 30 NHL 0.39 → age 31 NHL 0.59 → age 32 NHL 0.29
Adam LowryC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27	0.12	age 28 NHL 0.46 → age 29 NHL 0.27 → age 30 NHL 0.44 → age 31 NHL 0.43 → age 32 NHL 0.47
Nic DowdC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27	0.12	age 28 NHL 0.34 → age 29 NHL 0.27 → age 30 NHL 0.27 → age 31 NHL 0.38 → age 32 NHL 0.39
Ben HemmerlingRW · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27	0.14	age 28 CHL 0.25 → age 29 CHL 0.29
Casey CizikasC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27	0.14	age 28 NHL 0.45 → age 29 NHL 0.29 → age 30 NHL 0.25 → age 31 NHL 0.22 → age 32 NHL 0.26
Colin WhiteC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27	0.15	age 28 AHL 0.24 → age 29 AHL 0.47
Tyler PitlickC · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27	0.15	age 28 NHL 0.32 → age 29 NHL 0.29 → age 30 NHL 0.08 → age 31 NHL 0.26 → age 32 NHL 0.12
Joel ArmiaR · matched at ages 24, 25, 26, 27	0.16	age 28 NHL 0.23 → age 29 NHL 0.33 → age 30 NHL 0.38 → age 31 NHL 0.36 → age 32 NHL 0.37

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

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