Returning regular · 2025-26

Maxim Shabanov

Minnesota Wild · RW · L shot · age 25 at the dated snapshot.

Team: MIN
Lane: RW
Age: 25

Production and deployment

How the points were built

Official NHL 2025–26 regular-season reports. A missing split stays “—”; it is never converted to zero.

Games44

Goals5

Assists13

Points18

Even strength13all even-strength points

Power play5

Short handed0

Empty net0

5v5 points / 601.546

Average TOI13:41

PP TOI1:37

PK TOI0:00

Organizational context

4 RW regulars in MIN

The all-team median is 3.5. MIN’s farm system ranks #26 in the maintained two-board consensus.

Thin lane

Questions a GM still has to answer

How much of the scoring comes at five-on-five, on special teams, or into an empty net?
Is the player creating the play, finishing it, or receiving a secondary point?
Does deployment reveal trust, scarcity, underuse, or a role the roster cannot offer?
What contract, acquisition cost, development alternative and Cup-window effect complete the argument?

Shot quality · 2025-26

Expected goals

CapOrCup's shot model (distance, angle, shot type, strength, rebounds, rushes), trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25 and tested on unseen games (AUC 0.757). Finishing is goals minus expected goals; it is noisy in one season.

Unblocked shots86

Expected goals6.47.4% per shot

Goals5

Finishing−1.4goals above expected

CapOrCup measures · 2025-26

What happens while he plays

Measured from the league's play-by-play and shift charts, not from the scoresheet. Expected goals are counted for every player on the ice, and a goal is credited to whoever was on the ice when the sequence began, including players who had changed off before it was scored.

Share of chance quality49%3.33 expected goals for and 3.52 against per 60 minutes

Drive (vs own club without him)+0 ptshis share minus the club's share when he is off the ice

Setup (chances his passes produced)1.29 xG8 primary assists; 0.162 expected goals per pass on average, 0.135 per 60. A pass to a tap-in counts more than a pass to a point shot.

Drive, offence+0.12expected goals created per 60 with him on, minus the club without him

Drive, defence-0.12expected goals suppressed per 60 with him on, against the club without him; positive means fewer chances allowed

Offensive-zone starts43%of his faceoffs in either end zone; heavy offensive use lifts the numbers above

Company (linemates / opponents)average / averageteammates +0.8, opponents +0.3 points of relative chance share, weighted by seconds shared

Start +/- (goals begun on his shift)244 of them were scored after he had changed off

On the ice for46 for, 42 againstthe plus/minus view, for comparison

Giveaways that led to a goal1his own turnovers inside the sequence, over 9.6 hours on the ice

Line or pairLine 3his rank by 5-on-5 ice time within the club, most common over 14 games

LinematesJean-Gabriel Pageau, Calum Ritchieshared 29% and 29% of his 5-on-5 time

Matchup52% vs first lines52% against the other club's first line (usual)

Shutdown (drive, defence, deployment removed)+0.02offence the same way +0.28; zone starts and opponent quality removed by a league-wide fit

Real points180 empty-net points left out · 5 goals, 8 primary and 5 secondary assists · 5 on the power play

How these measures are defined, and where they stop.

Comparables at the same age

Who looked like this at 22 to 25

Careers are compared as league-adjusted points per game by age, over the same ages. The comparables below are the closest lines, and what matters is the spread of what they did next, not any single name.

Comparables found8

Went on to two or more NHL seasons8 of 8

Their later peak (adjusted pts/game)0.68median across the comparables; this player's own line is below

This player so far: age 17 MHL 0.50 → age 18 MHL 0.77 → age 19 MHL 1.22 → age 20 MHL 1.29 → age 21 KHL 0.18 → age 22 KHL 0.46 → age 23 KHL 0.78 → age 24 KHL 1.03 → age 25 NHL 0.41

All 3 columns shown

Player	Distance (lower is closer)	What he did afterwards
Nino NiederreiterR · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.10	age 26 NHL 0.50 → age 27 NHL 0.43 → age 28 NHL 0.61 → age 29 NHL 0.59 → age 30 NHL 0.50
Pierre-Luc DuboisC · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.11	age 26 NHL 0.81 → age 27 NHL 0.66
Kasperi KapanenR · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.11	age 26 NHL 0.47 → age 27 NHL 0.30 → age 28 NHL 0.10 → age 29 NHL 0.41
Mattias JanmarkC · matched at ages 22, 23, 25	0.12	age 26 NHL 0.31 → age 27 NHL 0.34 → age 28 NHL 0.46 → age 29 NHL 0.37 → age 30 NHL 0.38
Anders LeeL · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.13	age 26 NHL 0.64 → age 27 NHL 0.76 → age 28 NHL 0.62 → age 29 NHL 0.63 → age 30 NHL 0.70
Jack RoslovicC · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.13	age 26 NHL 0.57 → age 27 NHL 0.57 → age 28 NHL 0.48 → age 29 NHL 0.52
J.T. MillerC · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.13	age 26 NHL 0.63 → age 27 NHL 1.04 → age 28 NHL 0.87 → age 29 NHL 1.24 → age 30 NHL 1.01
Victor OlofssonL · matched at ages 22, 23, 24, 25	0.14	age 26 NHL 0.68 → age 27 NHL 0.53 → age 28 NHL 0.29 → age 29 NHL 0.52 → age 30 NHL 0.42

Reading it

If most comparables became NHL regulars and their later peak sits well above this player's current line, the numbers say there is room to grow. If most did not, the numbers say the odds are against it. Either way it is what the data shows, not a name chosen to flatter.

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