Tampa Bay Lightning
The whole organization. One connected view.
Eastern Conference · Atlantic DivisionOpen GM workspaceNot on file
Roster referenceNot on fileOfficial roster unavailableKnown commitmentsUS$102.2M25 / 35 contracts pricedFarm system#29Win-now depleted · board consensusNext gamevs DETNov 14
Line combinations
Source interpretation unqualified · 2026-10-19No unit on file.
No unit on file.
Loading goalie research context…
Contract horizon
Cap & contractsKnown AAV · 2026–2725 priced deals · 10 AAV unknown
Ceiling · ConfirmedUS$104M
Known committed share98.2%
Ceiling less known AAVUS$1.8M
ForwardsDefenceGoalies
Line: season-specific ceiling. * Outlook or assumption. Balance is not certified cap room.
Cap outlook assumptions
Local to this panel; does not change the GM financial scenario ceiling.
Sources, coverage & amounts
Sum of known AAV, not a complete payroll forecast or available cap room. Relief, bonuses and other charges are excluded. The file may contain later-dated signed terms; its file stamp is not a historical as-of reconstruction.
NHL/NHLPA · 2026–27: $104M · 2026-05-06
NHL/NHLPA · 2027–28: $113.5M · 2025-01-31 · subject to adjustment
Elliotte Friedman / Sportsnet · 2028–29: $127.5M · 2026-09-25 · reported estimate, not confirmed
Beyond that, no published limit in the checked sources. Any chosen growth is a planning assumption, not a forecast. Expiring commitments do not automatically fund a complete future roster.
2 contracts with unresolved terms remain outside the bars.
- F
- 55,640,000 USD
- D
- 35,775,000 USD
- G
- 10,750,000 USD
0 priced signed extensions included this season.
Contract ledger · file stamp 2026-09-21
Compare all seasons · data table
USD amounts, rounded to the dollar. Known AAV only: zero does not mean a future roster is funded. Missing amounts stay separate; this balance is not certified cap room.
2 contracts with unresolved terms remain excluded. Contract ledger file stamp: 2026-09-21
| Season | Known AAV · USD | Ceiling · USD | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selected | US$102,165,000 | US$104,000,000 | |
| US$82,755,000 | US$113,500,000 | ||
| US$63,980,000 | US$127,500,000 | ||
| US$51,880,000 | Not published | ||
| US$38,530,000 | Not published | ||
| US$13,250,000 | Not published |
Prospect pathways
Prospects
Benjamin RautiainenC · TapparaNHLETA —- Sam O’Reilly—NHLETA —
Dylan DukeL · Syracuse CrunchNHLETA —
Context & more prospects
Farm-board notables; recorded development stage, not an arrival forecast.
Benjamin Rautiainen: 59 GP · 2025–26 · 77 points
Sam O’Reilly: No unique development-record match.
Dylan Duke: 72 GP · 2025–26 · 59 points
Selection follows the farm board's published notable order. The NHL step is a pathway, not a confirmed move. Arrival dates and current rights are not verified here.
Ethan Czata
Tomáš Královič
All pathways & roster lanes →What changed
All movesRetained history or declared window unavailable or held for validation; coverage unknown.
Results, standings & source context
Not on file regular season · current roster
Team overview
What the contracts tell us
What the contracts mean for the next moves
- 01
- 02
- 03
- 04
- 05
- 06
- 07
Next game
2026–27
Upcoming games, columns & export
| Date | Opponent | Type | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs DET | Regular season | ||
| vs WSH | Regular season | ||
| vs EDM | Regular season | ||
| vs BUF | Regular season | ||
| vs CAR | Regular season |
Retained attention
Tampa Bay Lightning retained attention report
Retained declarations only. Sampling, language and population coverage, name matching, missing-input treatment, original reporting window and use permission are unverified. Scores and ranks are not validated comparisons; no effect on play is established.
Player-news field 7; global-news field unknown.
Retained player references: Nikita Kucherov (95) · Dominic James (90) · Jake Guentzel (84)
Kucherov's work ethic has him on cusp of Lightning scoring record (2026-10-20) · Nuts & Bolts: Late night puck drop (2026-10-19) · ThunderBug reunites with young fan after remarkable recovery (2026-10-18) · Kucherov scores twice, Lightning rally past Canucks (2026-10-18) · Mishkin's Extra Shift: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Vancouver Canucks 2 (2026-10-18)
Contract ledger · researched 2026-09-21
Tampa Bay Lightning contracts, 2026–27 onward
Every contract CapOrCup could source, one row per player, one column per season. Certified rows match a club or NHL release. Reported rows come from a named outlet and are labelled. Contracts with no public source are listed separately, and none are estimated.
| Player | 2026–27 | 2027–28 | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards · | |||
| Nikita KucherovCertifiedRNTC | |||
| Brayden PointCertifiedC · NMC/NTC | |||
| Jake GuentzelCertifiedC · NMC/NTC | |||
| Brandon HagelCertifiedL · NMC/NTC | |||
| Anthony CirelliCertifiedC · NMC/NTC | |||
| Ilya MikheyevCertifiedR | |||
| Jeffrey VielCertifiedL | |||
| Yanni GourdeCertifiedC · NMC/NTC | |||
| Pontus HolmbergReportedR | |||
| Gage GoncalvesCertifiedC | |||
| Dominic JamesReportedC | |||
| Zemgus GirgensonsCertifiedC | |||
| Jansen HarkinsReportedC | |||
| Scott SabourinCertifiedR | |||
| Nick AbruzzeseCertifiedC | |||
| Jakob PelletierReportedL | |||
| Benjamin RautiainenCertifiedC | |||
| Noah SteenCertifiedL | |||
| Defence · | |||
| John CarlsonCertifiedD | |||
| Victor HedmanCertifiedDNMC | |||
| J.J. MoserCertifiedD | |||
| Erik CernakCertifiedD · NMC/NTC | |||
| Ryan McDonaghCertifiedD · NMC/NTC | |||
| Charle-Edouard D'AstousCertifiedD | |||
| Emil LillebergCertifiedD | |||
| Max CrozierCertifiedD | |||
| Steven SantiniReportedD | |||
| Michael CallahanCertifiedD | |||
| Maxim GroshevCertifiedD | |||
| Simon LundmarkReportedD | |||
| Goalies · | |||
| Andrei VasilevskiyCertifiedG · NMC/NTC | |||
| Jonas JohanssonCertifiedG | |||
| Olivier RodrigueCertifiedG | |||
| Mads SogaardCertifiedG | |||
| Sourced total | |||
| |||
Cap or Cup · league-wide signals
Who is earning the cap hit
Each priced TBL skater compared with every priced skater at the same position in the league. Open a signal for the full drill-down on the league board: the tests, the numbers, and what would change it.
Private scenario · 2026–27
Tampa Bay Lightning cap planner
Enter figures you trust. The planner never turns missing contract data into a published total, and saves only in this browser.
US-dollar amounts: 1000000.50 or 1 000 000,50. Enter 0 explicitly when none applies. Private arithmetic from your assumptions; league rules are not certified.
Line 1
Gourde · Kucherov · Guentzel · Mikheyev · Hagel · Point
Line 2
Girgensons · Holmberg · Cirelli · Goncalves
Line 3
Truchon-Viel · James
Line 4
Harkins · Sabourin
Pair 1
Moser · D'Astous
Pair 2
Carlson · Lilleberg · McDonagh
Pair 3
Cernak · Crozier · Hedman
Retained chart · declared date 2026-10-19
Tampa Bay Lightning retained lineup report
Declared source: Sportradar NHL feed (trial) (licence ended 2026-10-28). Ranks and units come from the retained report. Current lineup, club decisions, original publication, coverage, identity mapping and use permission are unverified. The first goalie on the chart is not a confirmed starter.
Roster source
Players in the roster sources
| Player | # | Pos | Age | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards · | ||||
| Defense · | ||||
| Goalies · | ||||
2025–26 production
Reported club scoring
Club totals with TBL.
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Range not available Nikita KucherovR | |||||
| #2Range not available Jake GuentzelC | |||||
| #3Range not available Brandon HagelL | |||||
| #4Range not available Darren RaddyshD | |||||
| #5Range not available Anthony CirelliC | |||||
| #6Range not available Brayden PointC | |||||
| #7Range not available Gage GoncalvesC | |||||
| #8Range not available Oliver BjorkstrandR | |||||
| #9Range not available Charle-Edouard D'AstousD | |||||
| #9Range not available J.J. MoserD |
Shots for
shots a game, expected per shot
Shots against
allowed a game, expected per shot
From the video · model judgement
How they gained the zone in condensed game
Read from the league's free condensed games: entries carried in against dumped in, entries denied at the line for and against, and the rest of what the model could see. A condensed game is a sample of the game, so these are observations from the games read, not season counts.
Games read: TBL at NSH (2026010029), FLA at TBL (2026010043).
Coaching style · 2025-26
rolls four lines; pulls the goalie early; keeps pushing with a lead; leans on one power-play unit
How the bench was run, measured from the shift charts and the play-by-play (a mid-season coaching change is not separated). Each is set against the league median; style words appear only where the club is clearly away from it.
System group
Plays like Colorado Avalanche, Pittsburgh Penguins, Vegas Golden Knights, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, St. Louis Blues, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars
Four groups found by clustering every club's shot profile for and against. The group is described only by the features that set it apart from the league; no label is invented for it.
Goal archive ·
Tampa Bay Lightning: every goal, with the league's video
Preseason, regular season and playoffs are kept apart. Each row links to the NHL's own highlight page; no video is hosted here. Where a clip has been reviewed, the reading of it is a model judgement of the frames, not a measurement.
Loading…
Assistant GM
Tampa Bay Lightning: the front-office read
Every idea below is computed from sourced contracts, 2025–26 production, roster lanes, pick ownership and standings. Nothing is a rumour. Prices are computed guides from production and contract surplus, not market quotes.
Direction and front office
Holding
Standing pat: little trade activity.
How this GM trades: . Sunk-cost risk: low.
Decisions that cannot wait
Most urgent
Ranked by how soon the decision is forced: offer-sheet dates, cap compliance, deadlines and sell-offs.
Mitch Marner (VGK)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Tom Wilson (WSH)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Quinton Byfield (LAK)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Nikita Kucherov
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Plan for the cap you might get
Cap outlook
Sourced commitments against the announced or projected ceiling, and against a flat cap at today's (the ceiling stayed flat in 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24). Unpriced contracts are not counted, so real room is smaller.
| Season | Committed | Ceiling | Room (projected) | Room (flat cap) | Needs growth | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026–27 | ||||||
| 2027–28 | ||||||
| 2028–29 | ||||||
| 2029–30 |
Long, expensive contracts: Brayden Point ( through 2029–30: ); Jake Guentzel ( through 2030–31: ); J.J. Moser ( through 2033–34: ); Brandon Hagel ( through 2031–32: ); Anthony Cirelli ( through 2030–31: ); Erik Cernak ( through 2030–31: ).
Expansion: none announced
Protection slots are worth something
The NHL has not approved or announced an expansion team or expansion draft. In June 2026 it gave the Friedkin family a six-month window to explore a second Texas team in Houston or Austin (about $3.5 billion for the fee and an arena). The Board of Governors met on September 22, 2026 without announcing a decision; any expansion would still need a vote of the Board. No expansion draft is announced. Reported, not official: a Houston or Austin team could be awarded before the end of 2026 and would begin play in 2029-30, which would put its expansion draft in June 2029. The league is also reported to be talking with at least two other groups about a 34th team. Checks here apply the rules to today's rosters and contracts as a planning scenario, not a forecast. The format is not announced either: one new club per draft (a club could face a draft in consecutive years) or two clubs in the same draft (a club could lose two players at once). Under the 2021 rules a club protects 7 forwards, 3 defencemen and 1 goalie (or 8 skaters and 1 goalie). Every no-movement clause in force must be protected and uses a slot, so its real cost is the player it pushes off.
If a draft is announced: ask a no-move player to waive for the draft, trade an exposed player now rather than lose them for nothing, or make a side deal with the expansion club to steer its pick.
Where the roster is thin
Needs
A position (centre, wing, defence pair or goal) counts as a need when most of its regulars are unsigned past this season, or when they produce below the league average for that position.
Right wing
- Established
- Signed for 2027–28
- Lane 5v5 pts/60
See it coming
Offer-sheet exposure
This club's own RFAs for summer 2027: what their production is worth on the open market, which compensation band an aggressive offer would fall in, and whether the club could match with the room it has committed. The 2027–28 ceiling is not set; this uses the current ceiling.
Gage Goncalves
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Comparable market salary
- Offer-sheet band
- 2027–28 room (sourced)
Dominic James
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Comparable market salary
- Offer-sheet band
- 2027–28 room (sourced)
Players other clubs might move
Trade targets
Realistic targets, not wish lists: young players stuck behind veterans, salary a cap-strapped club has to move, rentals on selling clubs, and good contracts priced by what they are worth. Young franchise-core players and anyone with a no-move or full no-trade clause are left out.
Mitch Marner (VGK)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Tom Wilson (WSH)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Quinton Byfield (LAK)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Felix Unger Sorum (CAR)
- 2025–26
- Contract
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Price guide
Fabian Lysell (BOS)
- 2025–26
- Contract
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- Price guide
Joshua Roy (MTL)
- 2025–26
- Contract
- Age
- Price guide
Adam Gaudette (SJS)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Taylor Raddysh (NYR)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Mackie Samoskevich (SEA)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Jonatan Berggren (STL)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Arseny Gritsyuk (NJD)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Restricted free agents, summer 2027
Offer-sheet candidates
RFAs at clubs tight on cap. Compensation depends on the offer's AAV band and must be paid in the offering club's own picks; the Carlsson offer sheet in July 2026 showed how far a club will go to match.
Matias Maccelli (NYI)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Own 2027 picks held
Calum Ritchie (NYI)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Own 2027 picks held
Gabe Perreault (NYR)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Own 2027 picks held
Maxim Shabanov (MIN)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Own 2027 picks held
Trades with three or more clubs
Multi-team ideas
Chains where every club receives a player in a need lane, gives up roughly what it gets, and stays under the cap. Salary retention is used at most once per contract (the 2025 MOU bars a second retention on the same contract within 75 regular-season days) and never above 50%.
ANA → DET → TBL → BOS
- ANA → DET: Rodwin Dionicio (blocked, )
Gate at DET: not confirmed. fit: not yet validated. - DET → TBL: Keegan Kolesar (salary, )
Gate at TBL: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated. - TBL → BOS: Jeffrey Truchon-Viel (salary, )
Gate at BOS: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated. - BOS → ANA: Fabian Lysell (blocked, )
Gate at ANA: blocked (waiver exemption). fit: not yet validated.
ANA → DET → TBL → MTL
- ANA → DET: Rodwin Dionicio (blocked, )
Gate at DET: not confirmed. fit: not yet validated. - DET → TBL: Keegan Kolesar (salary, )
Gate at TBL: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated. - TBL → MTL: Jeffrey Truchon-Viel (salary, )
Gate at MTL: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated. - MTL → ANA: Zachary Bolduc (salary, )
Gate at ANA: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated.
ANA → DET → TBL → OTT
- ANA → DET: Rodwin Dionicio (blocked, )
Gate at DET: not confirmed. fit: not yet validated. - DET → TBL: Keegan Kolesar (salary, )
Gate at TBL: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated. - TBL → OTT: Jeffrey Truchon-Viel (salary, )
Gate at OTT: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated. - OTT → ANA: Michael Amadio (sell-high, )
Gate at ANA: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated.
ANA → DET → TBL → MTL
- ANA → DET: Rodwin Dionicio (blocked, )
Gate at DET: not confirmed. fit: not yet validated. - DET → TBL: Keegan Kolesar (salary, )
Gate at TBL: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated. - TBL → MTL: Jeffrey Truchon-Viel (salary, )
Gate at MTL: blocked (waiver exemption) (entry-level slide). fit: not yet validated. - MTL → ANA: Joshua Roy (blocked, )
Gate at ANA: not confirmed. fit: not yet validated.
Ideas to start from
Trade concepts
Each is priced from the player's tier and the contract's surplus over its remaining term, then cap-checked: salary in against salary out. A shape to test, not a final price.
Concept: Felix Unger Sorum (CAR)
- Contract
- Price guide
- Opportunity
- Net cap change
Concept: Fabian Lysell (BOS)
- Contract
- Price guide
- Opportunity
- Net cap change
Concept: Mackie Samoskevich (SEA)
- Cap hit
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
- Opportunity
- Net cap change
Concept: Jonatan Berggren (STL)
- Cap hit
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
- Opportunity
- Net cap change
Sell while the price is high
Decisions on value contracts
Players in their prime who produce more than their cap hit suggests, with the deal ending within two seasons: the moment their trade value peaks.
Nikita Kucherov
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
- Contract surplus
- Price guide
- Scenario basis
Players to build around
Young players to build around
Players under 24, judged on NHL games played and five-on-five scoring rate, their prospect ranking, and what they are producing now.
Marco Mignosa
- 2025–26
- Contract
- Age
Jayson Shaugabay
- 2025–26
- Contract
- Age
Isaac Howard
- 2025–26
- Contract
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
Sam O'Reilly
- 2025–26
- Contract
- Age
Joe Connor
- 2025–26
- Contract
- Age
Summer 2027
Free-agent targets
Pending UFAs (26 to 32, no extension signed) in this club's need lanes. The current cap hit is shown for reference, not as an estimate of the next contract.
Alex DeBrincat (DET)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
Kirill Marchenko (CBJ)
- 2025–26
- Cap hit
- Age
- Stage
- Trend
- Role
- 3-season projection
- On-ice chance share
- Sequences started
- Availability
- Expected goals (2025–26)
- Top speed (EDGE)
- Bursts over 20 mph
- White noise
League context
Where the market is going
Price of production at signing: cap hit per point of pace in the season before the deal, from the sourced contract ledger. Samples depend on how many deals are priced.
The ledger holds contracts still active in 2026-27, so one- and two-year deals signed in 2024 are missing from the 2024 column. Segments with different term mixes are therefore not comparable here; the term-matched reading is the pricing study on the integrity page.
Goalies: by raw save percentage, a goalie's season after changing teams is almost unrelated to the one before (correlation across moves, vs for goalies who stayed). Adjusted for shot quality the gap disappears ( stayed vs moved): the system changes the shots a goalie faces, so judge goalies on goals saved above expected. of established-goalie trades returned a first-round pick against for productive skaters ( goalie trades: a small sample).
Largest cap hits signed in summer 2026: Leo Carlsson (), Connor Bedard (), Cutter Gauthier (), Pavel Dorofeyev (), Alex Tuch ().
Ask the Tampa Bay Lightning assistant GM
Answers use only the ideas above, the club's contracts and trades, and the CBA, and cite each one. If the facts do not support an answer, it says so.
GM horizon
Julien BriseBois: 8.0 years in
How long GMs have lasted since 1967, and what that implies for a GM who has served this long. A GM who expects to be gone soon has a reason to buy today; this is the base rate, not a read on him.
Win-now premium
Tampa Bay Lightning: what deadline rentals cost
A rental is a pending unrestricted free agent bought between January 1 and the deadline. Its price is the pick value sent, in expected career NHL games. Part of a price can be rational: a win is worth more to a club on the playoff line. This splits the price above the league mean into what the standings on the trade date explain and what they do not.
| Date | Rental | GM | Picks sent | Price | Win value | Vs mean | Not explained |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Corey Perry | Julien BriseBois | 2028 round 2 | +94 | +94 |
| GM | Rentals (league-wide) | Mean price | Not explained: mean | 25th to 75th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julien BriseBois | 1 | Not on file (fewer than 5 rentals (1)) | ||
Win value is the rise in the club's chance of reaching the playoff line from one more win, in percentage points. Units are expected career games of the picks sent; a price in cap-share dollars needs the Worth model on rentals, which is not adopted. Not netted: the rental's quality, salary retained by the seller, and players or prospects sent. A rental's expiry is quoted from the trade's NHL.com story, or from the contract archive where the story is silent (an archive expiry can be a restricted one).
Farm-system consensus · front-office read
The pipeline needs more impact bets. A few names can hit without making the overall system strong.
- 01Treat first- and second-round picks as scarce replenishment assets.
- 02Create real NHL auditions for cheap players before buying depth.
- 03Do not confuse one headliner with a complete pipeline.
Draft picks · 2027–2029
Tampa Bay Lightning picks
Every round for the next three drafts: the club's own picks, picks it has acquired, and picks it has traded away, with any conditions. "Own" means the pick was checked against the club's trades since 2023; "Own, unconfirmed" means no trade is on record but that check has not been done.
Roster moves · as of 2026-10-19
Tampa Bay Lightning roster moves
Retained move reports within 45 declared days. Original publication, coverage and same-day event order are unverified; no current roster state is inferred.
Declared source: Sportradar NHL feed (trial) (licence ended 2026-10-28)
Not on file (No qualified retained reports for this declared window, or records held for validation; coverage unknown.)Injury listings · as of 2026-10-20
Tampa Bay Lightning injury listings
Club injury listings: source metadata is invalid or unsupported; this feed is unqualified; use entitlement is unverified. CapOrCup does not guess them; its own availability measure, games not dressed, is unaffected.
Waiver wire · last 3 league days
Placed on waivers, league-wide
Retained source-labelled waiver reports within three declared days. Report linkage, same-day event order and outcomes are unverified.
Fit components (description)
Who fits here: fit: not yet validated
No ranking of who fits Tampa Bay Lightning is shown until the move backtest passes. What follows describes how Tampa Bay Lightning plays and is coached, and the roster rules any addition must clear. The lane-based matchmaker stays on the Assistant GM.
Head coach: , in charge since 2013-03-29 (1046 regular-season games on file). Assistants: Not on file.
How this staff has used players (2025-26), against what position and prior minutes predict:
Contracts counted toward the 50 limit: . Active roster for the 23-man limit: Not on file.
as of 2026-04-16
Tampa Bay Lightning
trades
Toronto Maple Leafs receive
GM: John Chayka
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Dennis Hildeby
- 2027 4th-round pick · now owned by TBL
- 2028 3rd-round pick · now owned by TBL
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- 2026 2nd-round pick ()
Edmonton Oilers receive
GM: Stan Bowman
- 2026 2nd-round pick ()
- 2026 5th-round pick ()
Toronto Maple Leafs receive
GM: John Chayka
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- 2026 5th-round pick
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Jack Pridham
Chicago Blackhawks receive
GM: Kyle Davidson
- 2027 3rd-round pick · now owned by CHI
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Ian Mitchell
Detroit Red Wings receive
GM: Steve Yzerman
- Michael Milne
- Wojciech Stachowiak
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
Los Angeles Kings receive
GM: Ken Holland
- 2028 2nd-round pick · now owned by LAK
Minnesota Wild receive
GM: Bill Guerin
- Boris Katchouk
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Michael Milne
Philadelphia Flyers receive
GM: Daniel Briere
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
Los Angeles Kings receive
GM: Ken Holland
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Future considerations
Edmonton Oilers receive
GM: Stan Bowman
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- 2025 4th-round pick · No. 108
Boston Bruins receive
GM: Don Sweeney
- 2026 4th-round pick
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
Carolina Hurricanes receive
GM: Eric Tulsky
- 2025 6th-round pick
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Oliver Bjorkstrand
- Yanni Gourde
- Kyle Aucoin
- 2026 5th-round pick
Seattle Kraken receive
GM: Ron Francis
- Michael Eyssimont
- 2025 2nd-round pick
- 2026 1st-round pick · conditional
- 2027 1st-round pick · conditional · now owned by SEA
Nashville Predators receive
GM: Barry Trotz
- Jesse Ylonen
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Anthony Angello
New York Rangers receive
GM: Chris Drury
- Lucas Edmonds
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Ryder Korczak
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
Carolina Hurricanes receive
GM: Eric Tulsky
- 2025 3rd-round pick
Utah Mammoth receive
GM: Bill Armstrong
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
Not stated in the announcement.
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
San Jose Sharks receive
GM: Mike Grier
- Jack Thompson
- 2024 3rd-round pick
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- Matt Dumba
Utah Mammoth receive
GM: Bill Armstrong
- 2027 5th-round pick · now owned by UTA
Minnesota Wild receive
GM: Bill Guerin
- Pat Maroon
Tampa Bay Lightning receive
GM: Julien BriseBois
- 2024 7th-round pick
How the ledger is built
- 2024–25 onward: parsed from NHL.com's season trade pages, which list every trade. Each card links to the NHL.com announcement.
- 2019–20 to 2023–24: parsed from NHL.com trade announcements tagged to a club. Some trades are missing; those seasons are marked partial.
- "Details incomplete" means the announcement did not state one side; the original sentence is shown instead of a guess.
- Picks in 2027–2029 show their current owner from the verified pick ledger.
Statistical schedule · 2026-27 · as of 2026-10-20
Tampa Bay Lightning: difficulty rank #7Range not available
Every game priced by the model with the club's rest state. Difficulty averages four league ranks (opponents , rest , travel , back-to-backs ); expected points is the model's own forecast and depends on the club as much as the schedule. League table on the schedule page.
By month: 2026-10: games, expected points, opponents , back-to-back; 2026-11: games, expected points, opponents , back-to-back; 2026-12: games, expected points, opponents , back-to-back; 2027-01: games, expected points, opponents , back-to-back; 2027-02: games, expected points, opponents , back-to-back; 2027-03: games, expected points, opponents , back-to-back; 2027-04: games, expected points, opponents , back-to-back.
Game by game
games
Price is the model's chance for this club at the morning of the game with rest known; it moves when rosters are published. The spot names what the schedule did to the club that night.